Chicago Bears (3-4, 3-4 ATS) @ New England Patriots (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -6 (51)
Significant Injuries
Chicago: OT Jordan Mills (questionable– foot), LB Jon Bostic (doubtful– back), LB Lance Briggs (doubtful– ribs), S Danny McCray (out– knee)
New England: G Dan Connolly (questionable– concussion), DE Dominique Easley (questionable– shoulder), S Nate Ebner (questionable– finger), WR Matthew Slater (questionable– shoulder), DE Chandler Jones (out– hip)
Recent Trends
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit home loss
New England is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games
New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
New England is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-1 in Chicago’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 7-3 in Chicago’s last 10 games following a double-digit home loss
The OVER is 19-7 in New England’s last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears are getting a whopping 6 points here despite the fact that New England has been very unimpressive in 2 of their 3 home games this season, squeaking by the 1-6 Jets 27-25 last week and only beating winless Oakland by 7 in Week 3. Chicago is much better than both of those teams, so I would be very anxious about laying 6 points in this spot.
2. Chicago has a dynamic offense that features the league’s best collection of skill-position talent, guys like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte. They should move the ball without much difficulty against a New England defense that has been gashed at times this season and isn’t playing very well right now: over the past two weeks they’ve surrendered 47 combined points despite facing the Bills and the Jets, two of the AFC’s worst offenses.
3. The Patriots generally play “down” to the level of their competition, covering just once in their last 6 games against teams with losing records. The reverse is true of the Bears, who have been great on the road against quality teams, covering in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with winning records.
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots have it rolling now, as they’ve won 5 of their last 6 and have scored 107 combined points in their last 3 games. The Bears, meanwhile, are struggling, winning just once in their last 4 games. This is a total mismatch– the 6 points should be viewed as a minor inconvenience; don’t let it stop you from backing the better team.
2. The Chicago defense has been atrocious lately, surrendering 32 points per game in their last three losses. Last week they had no answer for Ryan Tannehill and the middling Miami offense, so they don’t stand much of a chance against Tom Brady and the red-hot Patriots. Brady has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interception in his last three games.
3. The only functional part of the Chicago offense this season has been their passing attack, as they rank 10th in pass yards per game. Well, it just so happens that the Patriots specialize in defending the pass. As matter of fact, the Pats rank 1st in the NFL in pass yards allowed, making this a nightmare matchup for Jay Cutler and the Bears.
Prediction
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