ATP Basel and Valencia (Monday 22nd October – Sunday 28th October 2012)
Argentine column pick Juan Martin Del Potro secured the title in Vienna last week to further improve his chances of qualifying for the season-ending championships in London at the start of November. The 8/11 shot scraped through his first round match against German Daniel Brands in three tight tie breaks and didn’t look back subsequently. Del Potro was the column’s fifteenth winning pick of 2012 and takes the profit/loss figure (based on a £10 level stake) over the £150 mark. Elsewhere, Alexandr Dolgopolov lost a final set tie break to Frenchman Edouard Roger-Vasselin in the 2nd round of a very winnable looking event in Moscow, whereas Mikhail Youzhny wasn’t able to take his chances against Tomas Berdych in their Stockholm quarter final. As predicted though, the winner of that quarter final did indeed win the title as Berdych defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Sunday’s final.
Moscow, Stockholm, and Vienna last week spelt the end in terms of ATP 250 events for 2012 and over the next seven days, we are spoilt with not one but two ATP 500 events in Basel and Valencia. With so little time left before the O2 and only a handful of spots left in London, it is hardly surprising to see that 12 of 16 tournament seeds this week are ranked in the world’s top 20.
The event in Valencia is where we will start and this certainly looks to be the more competitive of the two tournaments. Transitioning from a spring clay court event to an autumn indoor hard court event in 2009, the playing field has been significantly levelled since. Top seed, home favourite and two-time champion David Ferrer will still fancy his chances despite the court surface change. His victory two years ago came on the ‘Greenset’ hard courts of Valencia and the Spaniard is certainly a stronger player now on surfaces of all kinds. The tournament itself has been dominated by Spanish champions. Since 2006, Andy Murray is the only player from outside of Spain to have lifted the trophy so history is very much on the home nation’s side. Looking back at the draws from 2009 onwards, I think it is fair to say players that serve big haven’t faired all that well, especially given the tournament’s indoor nature. On the other hand, players that go about their business by scrambling for each and every point, as well as players that hit the ball flat seem to excel at the event, a sentiment emphasised by names such as Marcel Granollers, Gilles Simon, David Ferrer, Robin Soderling, Juan Monaco, Fernando Verdasco, and Nikolay Davydenko having previously done well at the event.
Based on this angle, I’m going to rule out the big-serving American/Canadian pair of John Isner and Milos Raonic, both of whom find themselves in the bottom half of the draw in Valencia. The other two seeded players in that particular draw section are Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Serbian Janko Tipsarevic. Both are looking to secure those all-important ranking points to make London’s showpiece but I think the wait to secure their places could be extended into next week and the ATP 1000 event in Paris. Tsonga managed to gain some valuable points in making the final in Stockholm but I have to feel those exertions may have taken their toll on the Frenchman and it would take a big effort for him to go deep in two successive ATP events.
Also looking for ranking points this week, Janko Tipsarevic will not have been particularly enthused to see Gilles Simon as his first round opponent. Somewhat of a nemesis for Tipsarevic, Simon holds a winning 5-2 head to head record over the Serbian and despite a couple of wins of late for ‘Tipsy’, you have to feel that Gilles holds the edge. Indeed Simon has won both of their indoor hard court meetings in straight sets and I fancy him to send Tipsarevic once again. Janko seemed ill at ease against qualifier Grega Zemlja in their Vienna semi final on Saturday and could prove to be similarly frustrated against Simon. If my anticipation is on the money, the draw would likely open up for Gilles Simon and with conditions to suit, a price of around 33/1 could look massive come late next week.
Selection – Gilles Simon
The second event on tour this week is in Basel, Switzerland and five-time champion Roger Federer should take all the beating. Already assured of a place in London, Federer is probably playing for the honour of ending the season as world number one, a battle I’m inclined to think Novak Djokovic will win regardless. Nevertheless, to pen a golf phrase, Federer ‘tees it up’ in Basel and will be a tough nut to crack for the rest of the field, a fact confirmed by the likely price of 8/13 being bounded around. Despite reaching the last four in Shanghai when last seen, Federer wasn’t at his best against Andy Murray in their semi final, nor against compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka in the previous round and it is the Swiss number two who I’ll be putting up this week as a decent ‘back to lay’ proposition.
It is unfortunate for Stan that he finds himself in the same section as Federer but can be encouraged by his performance in China. Admittedly the 12-1 record in Federer’s favour doesn’t make great reading but Wawrinka is actually in terrific form of late. You have to go as far back as Wawrinka’s last visit to his homeland (Gstaad) in July to find when he last lost to a player other than Federer, Murray, or Djokovic and whilst the likelihood of him qualifying for London is slim, he’ll want to put on a decent display for the home crowd. If Federer can somehow be defeated early or Wawrinka go that one step further and beat the great man, prices around the 20/1 mark will be few and far between.
Selection – Stanislas Wawrinka
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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