Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1, 3-2 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-2, 5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3 (50)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: WR A.J. Green (doubtful– toe), LB Emmanuel Lamur (doubtful– shoulder), DT Brandon Thompson (doubtful– knee), LB Rey Maualuga (out– hamstring)
Indianapolis: DT Arthur Jones (questionable– ankle), CB Darius Butler (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
Cincinnati is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games
Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Indianapolis is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games
The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-2 in Cincinnati’s last 7 games vs a team with a winning record
The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis’ last 8 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 the last 5 times these teams have met in Indianapolis
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals are suddenly everybody’s underdog after a loss and a tie, but those who don’t live on the week-to-week roller coaster remember that just three weeks ago Cincinnati was roundly declared the NFL’s best team. They’ve shown that they can play championship-level defense and their offense is better than its been in several years. The opportunity to back this team as an underdog should be pounced on immediately.
2. Indianapolis has an impressive 4-2 record, but they’ve yet to prove that they can beat a team of Cincinnati’s caliber. They’ve only beaten one team that currently has a winning record– Baltimore, who happened to lose (at home) to Cincinnati in Week 1. The Colts are a “soft” 4-2, while the Bengals’ lone loss came on the road against a desperate Patriots team.
3. Cincinnati ranks 5th in total offense– they’re averaging nearly 400 yards and 27 points per game. The Colts rank 16th in points allowed, but in their last 4 games they’ve faced Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Houston– not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses. Their defense isn’t nearly as good as people think it is and this week they’ll be exposed by a Bengals offense that has been rolling lately.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have the NFL’s best offense by any objective measure: they rank 1st in total yards per game, pass yards per game, and points scored. On Sunday they’ll go up against a Bengals defense that has surrendered 80 combined points over the past two weeks. This could get ugly.
2. Indianapolis has won 4 straight games, with their only two losses this season coming against division leaders Denver and Philadelphia. Those games were close, too– they lost a road game in Denver by 7 and blew a two-score 4th-quarter lead in a 3-point loss to Philly. The Colts very well may be the best team in the entire league, and three months from now we might be looking back at this game saying “Can you believe they were only a 3-point home favorite against Cincinnati in Week 7?”
3. This game is in Indianapolis, where the Colts are a great bet, covering in 17 of their last 22 opportunities. The fact that they’re facing the Bengals, who have covered just 3 times in their last 11 road games, makes a bet on the Colts the only sensible play.
Prediction
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