New Orleans Saints (2-3, 1-4 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -2 (48)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: CB Patrick Robinson (questionable– hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (questionable– shoulder), LB Ramon Humber (out– ankle), LB Kyle Knox (out– ankle)
Detroit: WR Calvin Johnson (questionable– ankle), TE Eric Ebron (doubtful– hamstring), RB Theo Riddick (doubtful– hamstring), TE Joseph Fauria (out– ankle), LB Travis Lewis (out– quadricep)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win
New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 6-1 in New Orleans’ last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in Detroit’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Detroit’s last 5 games overall
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints have one of the league’s best offenses, a unit that currently ranks 2nd in both total yards per game and pass yards per game. Will the Lions, who average just 19.3 points per game (fewer than all but 5 teams leaguewide), be able to keep up? With All Pro receiver Calvin Johnson limited or unavailable due to his ankle injury, it doesn’t seem likely.
2. Detroit has a well-earned reputation as an unpredictable and unreliable team– in their last home game, after all, they lost to a mediocre Buffalo team, and they’ve covered just twice in their last 8 home games against teams with losing records. They are not a team you want to trust with your money against a veteran group like New Orleans.
3. The Saints are a great situational play here– they desperately need the game, they’re coming off a bye, and their opponent’s best player is hobbled by an injury that will either keep him sidelined or severely limited. The Saints have won 4 straight games following bye weeks and those wins have come by an average of nearly 20 points per game.
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC, as they sit at 4-2 despite an unfavorable schedule in which 4 of the 6 opponents they’ve faced are currently .500 or better. The Saints, meanwhile, are 2-3 and needed overtime to beat the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs in their last game. This is a good team vs. a bad team, simple as that. Plus, the Saints are terrible on the road, having covered just twice in their last 11 opportunities.
2. Detroit has the NFL’s best defense, a unit that leads the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Saints have started relatively slowly on offense, as they currently rank a middling 13th in points scored, and their go-to player– All Pro tight end Jimmy Graham– may be forced to miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. It all sets up perfectly for the top-ranked Lions defense to shut down another ballyhooed offense, just like when they held Green Bay to 7 points in Week 3.
3. The Saints have an awful defense that is surrendering 380 yards and 28 points per game. Making matters worse, starting free safety Jarius Byrd was lost for the season two weeks ago, so a secondary that is already struggling will now be without its best player. This should be a nice opportunity for Detroit’s offense to pad the stats a bit.
Prediction
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