Cleveland Browns (3-2, 3-0-2 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6, 1-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -5.5 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
Cleveland: DT Ahtyba Rubin (questionable– ankle), DT Billy Winn (questionable– quadricep), WR Rodney Smith (questionable– hamstring), WR Josh Gordon (out– suspension), C Alex Mack (out– knee)
Jacksonville: RB Toby Gerhart (questionable– ankle), CB Aaron Colvin (out– knee), WR Justin Blackmon (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
Cleveland is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
Jacksonville is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
Jacksonville is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 7 home games
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns have won 3 of their 5 games and are looking like a legitimate playoff contender. The Jags, meanwhile, are 0-6 and 1-5 against the spread. This isn’t a recent thing, either– Jacksonville is 7-20 against the number in their last 27 games despite being underdogs in every one of those games. All aboard the Fade the Jags train, the most profitable ride in the NFL.
2. Cleveland has been surprisingly good on offense this season, ranking 10th in both yards per game and points scored. On Sunday they’ll face a Jacksonville defense that has surrendered a staggering 30.8 points per game this year, so we’ll probably see the Browns exceed their point total from last week, when they hung 31 on Pittsburgh in a 21-point victory.
3. The Jags have the NFL’s worst offense, a unit that ranks last in total yards, rushing yards, and points scored (13.5 ppg). They’re led by a rookie quarterback and will be starting no fewer than 5 rookies on the offensive side of the ball this week. They’ve yet to top 17 points this season, their offensive line is a disaster, their best receiver, tight end, and running back are all injured… shall I continue?
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. The Jags are playing their best football of the season, nearly pulling off wins in each of their past two games. The improvement has been most pronounced on the defensive side of the ball, where a unit that couldn’t stop anybody over the first 4 weeks has suddenly come together and held their last two opponents to 33 combined points. Jacksonville is a team on the rise.
2. The Browns rank 29th in total defense and 30th against the run, so they’ll be the worst defense that the Jags have faced this season. Jacksonville has been much better on offense since rookie quarterback Blake Bortles was thrown into the fire a couple of weeks ago, and now Bortles has a definite confidence-building opportunity in front of him: a home game against a terrible defense. Don’t be surprised if the youngster follows up last week’s 336-yard performance with another big game.
3. This is a great “sell high” time for the Browns– they’re overvalued after back-to-back wins over bad teams. Just look at their schedule: they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record and their two road outings have both been extremely shaky, as they lost to Pittsburgh in Week 1 and battled back from a 28-3 deficit to squeak out a 1-point win over Tennessee in Week 5. This is not the type of team that should be road favorites of nearly a touchdown, which means the value is on the other side.
Prediction
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