Atlanta Falcons (2-4, 2-4 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -7 (49)
Significant Injuries
Atlanta: WR Harry Douglas (questionable– foot), S William Moore (out– shoulder)
Baltimore: DT Timmy Jernigan (questionable– knee), G Kelechi Osemele (questionable– knee), WR Marlon Brown (questionable– pelvis), DE Chris Canty (out– infection), OT Eugene Monroe (out– knee), CB Asa Jackson (out– toe)
Recent Trends
Atlanta is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Baltimore is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 9-4 in Baltimore’s last 13 home games
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. Seven points is too many to give a Falcons team that has played well at times this season. Remember, just a month ago the Falcons rolled to a 42-point win on Thursday night football, so they’re certainly dangerous enough to beat anybody. And Baltimore is usually a bad bet in situations like this, covering just 5 times in their last 17 home games against teams with losing records.
2. The Ravens have a terrible secondary– they rank 27th in pass defense despite a schedule filled with run-first teams like Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Carolina. Now they face the high-flying Falcons, who rank 3rd in the NFL with 306.8 pass yards per game. This is a great matchup for the Atlanta offense.
3. The Falcons rank 3rd in total offense and 5th in points scored so they’re going to put up some points, there’s no question about that. For the Ravens to win by more than 7 here they’re really going to need an explosive performance out of their offense, but the Joe Flacco-led attack has been typically inconsistent this season, producing 23 points or fewer in 3 of Baltimore’s 6 contests.
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens have established themselves as a legitimate playoff contender, as they’ve won 4 of their past 5 games and are currently the only team in the NFL to rank in the top-6 in both points scored and points allowed. On Sunday they host the lowly Falcons, a team that’s coming off three straight double-digit losses. This isn’t going to end well for the visitors.
2. The Baltimore defense, which ranks 3rd in the league in points allowed, is especially good in the front seven, where perennial Pro Bowlers like Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata make life miserable for opposing offenses. This week they’ll feast on a Falcons team that features one of the leagues worst offensive lines, a unit that has repeatedly put quarterback Matt Ryan in harm’s way and has consistently failed to open up holes in the running game. This mismatch– the Batimore defensive front vs. the Atlanta offensive line– will define the game.
3. The Falcons have an abysmal defense that ranks 27th or worse in total yards allowed, pass yards allowed, rush yards allowed, and points allowed. They have little chance of success against a red-hot Baltimore offense that scored 48 points on the road last week and is now averaging over 27 per game. The Ravens will be able to move the ball at will and should light up the scoreboard on Sunday.
Prediction
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