FIVE DAQMAN HITS INCLUDING CHESTER SUPERNAP: As promised, Daqman stuck to his stats and betting principles yesterday and was rewarded with a huge profit (92.54 points in one day) from five winners, including four in a row at Chester, one of them his supernap:
WON 11-4 A MOMENT OF MADNESS (from 5.2 BETDAQ)
(2nd 9-2 POWERALLIED same race bookie Exacta 15-1)
WON 5-2 ROSTROPOVICH (from 4.5 BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 ANOTHER BATT (from 7.8 BETDAQ)
WON 8-11 IDAHO (supernap, 9-10 on BETDAQ)
WON 11-2 DJIN CONTI (sole evening bet)
VALUE HUNT WALK-OVER (DAQMAN 18, PRICEWISE 5): The Chester results opened up a massive 18-5 value-betting lead for Daqman over Pricewise, the figurehead of the Racing Post’s 200 experts. Daqman is now 76 points clear to the nearest single unit, using one-point level stakes: + 18 to -58. Today’s headlines:
BIG-RACE VALUE IS WITH BETDAQ
10.5 MUNDATAB OFFERS TOO BIG
GRANDEE ‘HIDDEN HORSE’ at 13.5
HERDWICK CAN WOBBLE JELLABY
BIG-RACE VALUE IS WITH BETDAQ
You can stay ahead of the game. All 14 winners on the first two days at Chester have been drawn from 1 to 7, and the low stalls now begin to lose their value with the bookies, percentage wise, as Joe Public moves in on them.
That the BETDAQ orange remains punter friendly, often with overrounds below 110%, helps offset such bias, although the bookies have hit 122% twice and 121% total SPs at the meeting so far.
BETDAQ THIS MORNING: 107, 102, 107, 109, 104, 107, 113
Be warned that, with a handicap like today’s Chester Cup, the bookies will try to step up the takeout, as this table for the last 10 years SP total-percentages reveals:-
CUP SP OVERROUNDS: 127 123 122 119 124 126 125 126 130 127
10.5 MUNTADAB OFFERS TOO BIG
1.50 Chester The same weight and a better draw. That’s the good news about last year’s winner, Sound Advice. The bad news is that his stable has had 25 consecutive losers, and Sound Advice is nine years old now.
Roger Fell’s stream of winners in April have settled to a trickle, but Muntadab has won twice after a break and the track and draw seem ideal for his front-running style: BETDAQ 10.5 offers.
2.25 Chester (Huxley Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute (Convey) and Aidan O’Brien (War Decree) have each won this twice in the last nine years.
But Eminent was the paper favourite, drawn one in his prep run for the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, with 4lb-6lb in hand on the book.
He’s rated 116 after his Newmarket Guineas sixth and Epsom Derby fourth, Group 2 and 3 winner in his second season.
He has two years in hand on Convey, who did his winning on AW in 2017 and last scored on turf in a Listed race (grass strike rate 1-13).
And Eminent beat War Decree a good six lengths in last year’s Craven Stakes, spending a lot of time in Group 1 afterwards. But both Convey and War Decree have had a run.
Ryan Moore has been breaking their hearts with his judgment of pace round this fast track and 7.2 War Decree is good value with the quirky track on your side to upset the form book.
GRANDEE ‘HIDDEN HORSE’ AT 13.5
3.35 Chester (Chester Cup) The draw counts, even in big fields over two and a quarter miles! The last nine Cup winners by stall: 4, 5, 1, 13, 2, 4, 11, 4, 2.
Punters haven’t found the right favourite – just the one win in the decade for the market leader at SP – but this sequence of winning odds from 2012 to 2016 suggests they are never far off: 10-1, 12-1, 10-1, 10-1, 11-1.
I believe there’s a ‘hidden horse’ here, and so do those who backed him in during the week (connections?) from 20-1 to 12-1.
A 13.5 offer on BETDAQ, Grandee, from stall 3, was placed as a youngster behind Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling and ran in the Irish Derby.
Gelded and switched from Ireland to David O’Meara, he was back to form on the last day.
His breeding (related to Group winners over 1m 6f and 2m) suggests that this step up in trip could be the making of him.
You need to have a second bet in this roundabout race. Magic Circle ran well in it last year from a bad draw (in 6 now) and Time For Study (7) drops down from Group company.
Like Magic Circle, Dubawi Fifty (fourth in the Cesarewitch but stall 10 here) goes best left-handed. I’ll take the 7.8 on BETDAQ that Magic Circle , with the Marwan Koukash touch, will give us a big run under Fran Berry.
5.15 Chester (Chester Plate) First running of a Chester Cup consolation, with a rating of 96 the cut-off point, and presumably the Cup’s draw data to apply.
Alan King has had five winners from his last seven runners, and 6.0 BETDAQ offer Coeur De Lion may not be inconvenienced by stall 12.
A winner over shorter on the Flat at Southwell (Mixboy second), he likes to come out of the pack, and should be one of the late finishers, sharpened up by first-time cheekpieces.
Well backed overnight, American Gigolo (stall 4), who has done his winning on AW (hat-trick in February-March), has had three different trainers.
Byron Flyer (in 2) flopped here a year ago but is 9lb higher after four consecutive seconds, with cheekpieces the last twice failing to halt the bridesmaid sequence.
Angel Gabrial (5) is 20lb lower than when eighth in the Chester Cup last season, his third time unplaced in the race.
Going back to 2014, he was Cup runner-up to Suegioo (stall 3 today) but both old-timers need a revival to score today.
Euchen Glen (9.6 offers) was third, a neck off Time To Study, when they were placed in the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh, so Study the result of the Chester Cup! It could mean another bet here.
HERDWICK CAN WOBBLE JELLABY
8.10 Ascot Very well related on the dam’s side, Herdwick’s quiet beginning has him on a very low mark to start handicapping, and he was well backed overnight from big odds. Still 9.2 on BETDAQ, despite strong whispers from my man in the long grass.
A giant of a horse, Al Jellaby, should start to make an impact for in-form Clive Cox, and Group 1 entered Corrosive will like the firm ground. This is his acid test.
John Gosden (Bold Reason) won the race back to back (2014-15), and Frankie Dettori is here for three rides, swerving Chester for the course he loves.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Chester (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place MUNTADAB
2.25 CHESTER (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win (nap) WAR DECREE
3.35 Chester (win 30)
BET 4.4pts win MAGIC CIRCLE
BET 2.4pts win and place GRANDEE
5.15 Chester (win 20)
BET 5pts win COEUR DE LION
BET 2.3pts win EUCHEN GLEN
8.10 Ascot (win 20 and win 10)
BET 2.5pts win and place HERDWICK
BET (to win 10) 5.5pts win AL JELLABY
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