DAQMAN BIDS FOR SEVEN NAPS IN A ROW: Daqman went for outsiders yesterday and outsiders won.. but not his outsiders! As ever he covered his stakes and broke even on the day, thanks to a sixth consecutive nap. So he’s now had no losing days in an entire week: in fact, a total profit of 116.75. The naps sequence:
✔️ WON 4-7 CARAUSIUS Thursday nap: BETDAQ 1.8 taken
✔️ WON 5-6 SILVER FOREVER Wednesday nap: BETDAQ 2.24
✔️ WON 11-10 OUT ON THE TEAR Tuesday nap: BETDAQ 2.36
✔️ WON 10-11 SCREAMING PETRUS Monday nap: BETDAQ 2.20
✔️ WON 5-6 PAPA TANGO CHARLY Sunday nap: BETDAQ 2.20
✔️ WON 3-1 TWO FOR GOLD Saturday nap: BETDAQ 4.3
FORTUNE COOKIES GO FOR THE HAT-TRICK: After 2 out of 2 (50 points profit) from Protektorat (WON 4-1) and Blazing Khal (WON 1-1), Daqman’s third Fortune Cookie of the season is running at Ascot today (2.20).
CREEK A CRACKING 23.0 BET
⭕ 12.35 Ascot Leading conditional jockeys as they line up for this 2m 5f+ handicap hurdle: Kevin Brogan 29, Mitchell Bastyan 18, Fergus Gregory 18, Luca Morgan 13, Jack Tudor 13, Lorcan Williams 11.
Apache Creek (Brogan) is 1112 at this kind of trip on this kind of ground. He didn’t get 3m on soft the last day.
Jetaway Joey (Gregory) has won back to back in novice events and is on the upgrade. Likewise Optimise Prime (Morgan) – overfaced in much stronger company – and likewise Dargiannini (Williams), back to form the last day.
Beaufort West (Bastyan) returns to hurdles from a modest career over fences. Bard Of Brittany (Tudor) is a spring horse. Earth Lord could help Sean Houlihan upset the more established jocks. It’s a pinstickers’ race so I’ll try an outsider.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 23.0 Apache Creek (5.4 a place)
HE LOOKS ONE TRUE JUMPER
⭕ 1.45 Ascot Venetia Williams, who won this last year, could follow up with Brave Seasco, who goes up another 5lb after this, full value for a 12lb hike by the handicapper after a smooth performance at Warwick.
He still gets weight from all bar Karl Philippe, who has a chance if he can iron out the jumping errors seen at Carlisle in October.
Red Rookie did well to run Witness Protection to a neck at Chepstow. Thyme White has improved for two lots of wind surgery and the stable won this with Greaneteen, who also needed a lot of sorting and patience.
Thyme White and his Wincanton conqueror, Amarillo Sky, are brought close together here by the revised weights.
For me, I liked the way One True King jumped around Sandown 14 days back. Sam Twiston-Davies is riding better than ever.
BETDAQ value 10.5 One True King
JONBON GETS A PROPER TEST
⭕ 2.20 Ascot Jonbon, 1.94 for his trial today, is only 4.5 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham (11.0 for the Ballymore) after his Newbury success ‘in second gear’ (quote-unquote, trainer Nicky Henderson).
This Grade-2 novices hurdle will tell us more, with some ratings guestimating his mark at 136, though only his four rivals are officially rated.
While Knappers Hill (130) is likely to keep him honest at the front of the market, Colonel Mustard (144) and I Like To Move It (138) currently have higher marks.
Jonbon, Walk In The Park brother to Douvan, may also be a price because he ‘fidgets’ before the race (that’s Henderson again) and can be off-putting ‘but ignore it; he will be relaxed and racing beautifully’ in the race.
Knappers Hill’s comfortable Wincanton win, in a race Paul Nicholls had captured six times in seven seasons with hot young hurdlers, has been boosted by success for the third horse since.
The winner’s gift of 9lb to that third horse, added to a four-and-a-half lengths margin over him (a 124 winner last Thursday), has Knappers Hill nearer 138 than his 130 mark. He won the bumper on this card a year ago.
Lorna Fowler brings over Colonel Mustard, who was runner-up in the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle in the Spring, but didn’t break his maiden until beating a 100-rated at Galway in October.
I Like To Move It is 3-3 over hurdles, including a Grade-2 novice at Cheltenham, and Elle Est Belle, the Champion Bumper third, landed a Listed hurdle at Newbury late last month.
THUMBS UP FOR GLADIATOR
⭕ 2.55 Ascot If you look back at my novice-chase ratings, you won’t find Pic D’Orhy in the list after he fell when leading at Newbury three weeks back.
Officially he’d be No 7 off 152 but I’m demanding confirmation of his abilities in this Grade-2, for which all five runners are distance winners at 2m 3f.
Pic D’Orhy ‘had a few jumping issues’ last season, and it’s taken time to get him together. I’m quoting trainer Paul Nicholls, who has been unhappy with the six-year-old’s handicap mark.
Faivoir is the obvious alternative, after winning over CD here to go 2 out of 3 over fences.
But I fancy having Gladiateur Allen (betdaq 8.0) on my side. Son of the sire of Protektorat and Djakadam, out of a Dom Alco mare, related to tough staying chasers like Auvergnat.
He is the youngster of the party today but – Politologue among them – five-year-olds have won six times in seven years. His stamina demands Pic D’Orhy sets him pace and target.
MAKKARI IN DUBAWI MOULD
⭕ 5.15 Kempton Charlie Appleby’s last runner, Royal Symbol (WON 11-4), scored for me first time out on Wednesday, putting Charlie on 3-4 in one week of careful placing.
Today Irish 1,000 Guineas entry Makkari is expected to continue the sequence. A Galileo filly out of a Group-1-winning Dubawi mare, her BETDAQ offers of 2.8 this morning were held up by the tail-swisher Morgan Fairy.
The Snap Ambush plan is nurseries. Apprentice-ridden Lovers’ Lane and Follow That Star may need the run, as Andrew Balding’s usually do first time.
12.35 Ascot (win 22, place win 10)
BET 1pt win and 2.25pts place APACHE CREEK
1.45 Ascot (win 20, place win 7)
BET 2pts win and 4pts place ONE TRUE KING
BET 10pts win JONBON
2.55 Ascot (win 20)
BET 3pts win GLADIATEUR ALLEN
5.15 Kempton (win 10 nap)
BET 5.5pts win MAKKARI
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.