BANKER DOUBLE AMONG THREE NAPS IN A ROW: Daqman landed back-to-back bankers yesterday when Shotavodka (WON 4-11 but 2.28 in running) followed Holywell (WON 10-11). It was his third successive winning nap, with Elusive Hawk (WON 5-4 from 3.3 on BETDAQ) scoring on Tuesday.
TOMORROW: SCORE STANDS AT DAQMAN 23, PRICEWISE 7: Saturday-king Daqman renews his head-to-head with Pricewise tomorrow, 12-3 up this year in the big races and leading his rival 23-7 since he made the challenge on November 23.
EXETER: Kim Bailey, who on Wednesday produced an ace out of his pack for Cheltenham – Un Ace, in fact – posts a vote of confidence in his Midnight Legend mare, A Shade Of Bay, by switching her between same-sex races, from the novice (3.50) to the handicap (2.50 at early-mouse offers of 8.8 on BETDAQ).
‘Shade’ is a dark horse at the trip but the extra distance should suit her well. Since she was 20-1 when she won at Southwell, we might well surmise that she wasn’t expected over shorter.
Kim Bailey has a 43% strike rate at Exeter when combining with jockey Jason Maguire. A Shade Of Bay is Maguire’s only mount of the afternoon.
Another Midnight Legend, Midnight Belle, also a Southwell winner, has been twice placed since, so seems to have been stopped by her 5lb rise, and Loyaute has been hit 10lb for a win at Kempton, taking her to 120. She has won only off 110 and 111, so also looks less than capable of carrying the penalty.
Yet a third Southwell winner, Flementime, may have been harshly treated for beating Spyder, winner only of a mile maiden on the Flat going back more than three years.
LINGFIELD: The Lincoln is just around the corner and, if you back a Hills runner ante-post for the Flat’s first big turf handicap, you’re almost certain of some ‘overs’ to trade with later on.
The stable’s last winner, Pablo (2003), was a huge gamble for Barry Hills, in to 13-2 for the man who had launched his training career with just such a gamble 30 years earlier.
Barry’s last runner, Gunner Lindley (2011), was another steamer, down to 13-2 for Doncaster, and, when Charles Hills took over, he sent out another gamble which failed, Captain Bertie, 10-1 last year.
One of the keys to Lincoln success is ability on the Town Moor track, and Regal Dan, Charles’s Dark Angel four-year-old, has already won there and finished a big-field-handicap fourth.
Regal Dan (4.00), who has been placed on each first run of his two seasons’ racing, needs a winter AW win if he is to get into the race and be the Hills’ Spring chicken.
Currently off an official rating of 85, and a low-down number 85 of 121 Lincoln entries, Regal Dan can lift his ranking today, with the yard’s form figures in 2014 five out of five in the frame: 12423.
All this suggests that Regal Dan (3.8 for the win on BETDAQ this morning) is cast-iron for a place today and, even early mouse, I can earn better than a 50% profit from a place investment, getting a 1-2-3 chance in an eight-runner field. It’s gotta be another banker.
THURLES: Take a trainer in fabulous form and a horse that always wins on the course. Add two and two together yet you get a value 7.8 on BETDAQ.
Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan’s current form figures are 1011 and the horse, Miss Ella (3.45), is 2-2 at Thurles, including this Littleton Handicap Hurdle last year off a 4lb lower mark.
Since then, ‘Ella’ has shed 3lb over hurdles, even though her last three runs have been chases, and she has clearly been laid out for today’s race, returned to the smaller obstacles.
WARWICK: Whenever I complain about lack of quality races in midweek, along comes a class-2, but with only a handful of runners. Conclusion: there must be thousands of three-legged animals out there, looking for a dross race.
The worry for backers of Uxizandre (3.40) is a 15lb rise as he goes for the hat-trick. Bennys Mist is just 8lb higher for the season, despite also landing back-to-back victories, but he seems to prefer a bog and is too easy to back this morning for what he’s done.
No Planning is a stone higher for a fine sequence of 31231 this autumn and winter but Persian Snow has found it difficult to emerge from novice class and has recorded just the one chase win among beginners.
The value may be What A Warrior (a huge 8.0 this morning), who is favoured by the drying ground and is yet another runner off a featherweight for Team Twiston-Davies, which excels at plundering handicaps from such a vantage point.
WOLVERHAMPTON: Roger Varian, 30% at Wolverhamptopn, has a 50% strike rate with three-year-olds on all AW tracks this year, and is one of few trainers who knows when to apply blinkers (28% hits).
Three Cliffs is hooded first time for what seems to be a match with the favourite, Lungarno Palace, who is surely the one who needs the hood after showing temperament and ‘character’ in Ireland.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.5pts win A SHADE OF BAY (2.50 Exeter)
BET 2.8pts win WHAT A WARRIOR and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) UXIZANDRE (3.40 Warwick)
BET 3pts win MISSIE ELLA (3.45 Thurles)
BANKER: BET 20pts place nap REGAL DAN (4.00 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Missie Ella (3.45 Thurles), Regal Dan (4.00 Lingfield) and Three Cliffs (7.30 Wolverhampton)
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