NOW IT’S A SIX-HIT OF HOT NAPS: Still going strong. That’s the Daqman nap, now six out of six, including a gold banker, three other bankers, a place nap, and an odds-against best bet last night. Here are the six:
WON 1-2 Shalaa (gold banker)
WON 10-11 Donna Graciosa (banker)
WON 5-6 Dark Emerald (banker)
WON 10-11 Kayla (banker)
3RD 6-1 Daisy Boy (place nap)
WON 11-10 Second Wave (nap)
BIG-VALUE DAQMAN TODAY: After yesterday’s Arc ABC Guide, there’s another big read from Daqman today:
* BETDAQ THREE-IN-ONE
* ARC MARKET FAB FIVE
* ASCOT NAP LOOKS A SNIP
TOMORROW: TOP BETTING WEEKEND IN PARIS: Don’t miss Daqman’s Saturday column for Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar, plus the opening day at Longchamp. He’s back in Paris for Arc day on Sunday.
WIN-WIN-WIN WITH THE NEW BETDAQ COMMISSION
How to get a one-horse treble up! They had found the way to ride Stormbay Bomber on the last day – from the front – and he looked an ideal trade horse at Bangor to repeat the tactics yesterday.
I wasn’t on, but I know a man who was. It was one of those moments when you persuade someone else of a bet and don’t back it yourself!
I sat right beside him as he keyed in cash from his betting wallet, finding three ways to win on the same horse.
3.23 pm It’s 7.4 Stormbay Bomber but my man wants a reduced BETDAQ commission so he baits the market, asking for 8.0.
3.26pm He gets the 8.0 matched, so is already ‘quids in’, with a better price and a lower commission, due to pay not 5% but only 2% if the horse wins.
3.29pm The race is late off but Stormbay Bomber is soon clear and plunges down the orange, first to 4.8 in one fell swoop.
3.30pm Then, by 3.30pm, there are offers of only 2.0. Can he hold on?
Don’t ask me what time he flew the second last, with his odds cramped to 1.04 to score, which he did.
Somewhere in the melee of my shouting him on, my man had done a trade at the reduced odds.
He’d backed a 6-1 winner at 8.0, cut the commission due, and laid off his stake. It was win, win, win!
How much have you got? ‘I’ve no idea,’ he gasped. “I’ve just ridden two miles over hurdles!’
‘Come on,’ I said, ‘get a grip! We’re missing the 3.35 at Beverley.
ARC LONG AND SHORT OF IT: ORANGE FOR VALUE
It’s a five-horse Arc! That’s how the BETDAQ orange sees it, and the stats agree, with only one winner (33-1 Solemia) in recent history starting bigger than 20-1 (and that was on heavy ground).
The orange added up to 107% when I checked out the offers. Take out all those at 32.0 plus, and the top five on BETDAQ then made only around 96%, paying out more than is put in.
Compare those two assessments on punter-friendly BETDAQ with the actual Total SP from recent Arcs, and you’ll realise what amazing value you are getting on the exchange. For Treve’s two victories in 2013-14, the SP totted up to 123% and 128%.
This is how price comparison looked on those five market leaders at the time of writing:
2.2 Treve (bookies shortest 4-5, longest 1-1, in Oddschecker)
5.8 Golden Horn (7-2 > 5-1)
5.9 New Bay (4-1 > 11-2)
16.5 Free Eagle (14-1 > 18-1)
19.5 Found (12-1 > 16-1)
Of course, bookmaker offers on outsiders are always contracted. So, if you’re looking for a late gamble from among the current long-shots, then BETDAQ is better by miles.
24.0 Flintshire (16-1 > 20-1)
37.0 Erupt (25-1 > 33-1)
48.0 Dolniya (25-1 > 33-1)
54.0 Tapestry (20-1 > 33-1)
72.0 Eagle Top (25-1 > 50-1)
CHAMPION START FOR MOORE AT ASCOT TODAY
2.20 Ascot Five of the eight that finished in the first four in the two years of this race have come from stalls 6 to 9.
Before checking out the stats, my pick from the only four horses backed – 14.5 bar – was Akeed Champion, back to his level after trying a class 2 on the last day. Ryan Moore rides him out of stall 5. I took 7.2.
2.50 Ascot Three-year-olds rampaged through this race – three in a row – until last year when vanquished by veteran Excellent Guest who runs in the opener, well fancied.
The usual edge with the ratings in this Classified goes out of the window, with the entire field off 88-90, eight of them co-deadheaters on 90 itself!
Saucy Minx and Take A Note are exposed as 7f horses, but you can’t be too sure they won’t step up, witness seven times 7f winner Athletic’s switch to a mile on the last day, beaten only half a length.
Georgian Bay, Malaf and Sir Robert Cheval have won only on man-made surfaces, though Malaf could easily step up on his first run gelded.
My vote goes to Roxy Star, dual winner in the summer, then tried in Group 3 in August and over 1m 2f on the last day. Back to the scene of her CD success in July, with the extra aids of first-time blinkers. Offers of 5.3 taken on BETDAQ.
‘LIGHT’ DAWNS FOR THE EARLY-MOUSE PUNTERS
3.25 Ascot A favourites sequence of five out of 10 broken by winners at 16-1 and 20-1 (twice); that’s the tricky nature of past results, so it might pay to dig through form and stats for a ‘hidden horse.’
Example, Intibaah (16-1 scorer in 2013) who had failed to act in a class 4 upped to 7f on the last day but had Group and Listed form on his CV at the 6f of this race.
That reads rather like the grey Silver Rainbow, who probably went back to the well a bit too soon, down the field at Bath after scoring in a class 4 at Doncaster, when she gave 10lb to the runner-up, suggesting she is class 3 at least.
‘Rainbow’ finished last season in a Listed and started the current campaign tilting at the Fred Darling Stakes (Group 3). So maybe she’s better than the bare form suggests at 50.0 on BETDAQ this morning, 10.0 a place.
Another dual winner in the summer who had a break is The Tin Man, so you could allow some lack of fitness for his poor showing, returning at York last month.
But this winner only at class-4 level was favourite that day so can be said to have disappointed, finishing a length and a half behind the second horse, Felix Leiter.
Now Felix’s form is 004424 this year so, whichever way you look at it, The Tin Man could be a false favourite today.
Field Game and Heartbreak Hero are also on long losing sequences, and I fancy the race is between Dawn’s Early Light (holds Roossey) and Moonraker.
Dawn’s Early Light, a CD winner, didn’t like it soft returning to Ascot in early September but has his ground here and William Buick’s help.
Moonraker carried the weight he has today – albeit in slightly lesser company – when CD winner in August but he, too, is let down by the form of the horse he beat that day, Squats (now 00040024 this year and withdrawn from this race during the morning).
So my Triple Whammy attempt is: place lay The Tin Man (1.79); win Dawn’s Early Light (at 4.6 this morning), place Silver Rainbow.
SECATEUR LOOKS A SNIP ON A SOUND SURFACE
3.50 Fontwell Dan Skelton is knocking at the door with three placed from his last four runners, and Workbench is back for a repeat in this chase. It’s his time of year with all his four wins between August and November.
4.00 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes) This race last year threw up Big Orange, winner of the Goodwood Cup in July.
John Gosden, who took the prize in 2013, can win it again with Secateur, a fine opportunity for Frankie Dettori to show his skill from the front.
With form figures this year on a sound surface of 112 (giving 18lb when second, beaten a head), Secateur couldn’t sustain the gallop on the soft behind Pin Up on the last day but has his ground today and is 10lb better off with that one.
5.10 Ascot (Gordon Carter Stakes) Three and four year olds have shared this for eight years now, and The Cashel Man and Burmese take the eye on form and in the market.
As I write, it’s 13.5 bar these two second-season improvers but with Cesarewitch hope The Cashel Man a bit short at 2.32. So I risked the 5.9 Burmese, with the favourite as my saver.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.2pts win and place AKEED CHAMPION (2.20 Ascot)
BET 4.6pts win ROXY STAR and 4.4pts win MALAF (2.50 Ascot)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: PLACE LAY 5pts THE TIN MAN, and BET 5.5pts win DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT, plus 0.4pts win and 2pts place (Hidden Horse) SILVER RAINBOW (3.25 Ascot)
BET 6pts win WORKBENCH (3.50 Fontwell)
BET 12pts win (nap) SECATEUR (4.00 Ascot)
BET 4pts win BURMESE and 3.3pts win (stakes saver) THE CASHEL MAN (5.10 Ascot)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£50 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
