DAQMAN’S NAP CELEBRATES DAY OF HISTORY: ‘There’s a strong word for History Book.’ That was Daqman’s advice for his nap at Wolverhampton last night. History Book duly WON 6-4 on the day Tony McCoy went into the history books.
HE TUNES IN WITH 24 POINTS PROFIT: ‘Today’s the day for Tony McCoy… get on early!’ That was Daqman’s advice for Towcester. McCoy landed his 4,000th winner when Mountain Tunes WON 6-4. That put Daqman in front 24.45 on the day.
16.0 BETDAQ BET IN ABC GUIDE TO TOMORROW’S BIG RACE: Daqman has today condensed his usual ABC guide to show only the five horses who tick every box for tomorrow’s November Handicap at Doncaster. He takes 16.0 and 15.5 two horses ante-post.
NOVEMBER HANDICAP HOT FIVE: THE FINAL–DAY HERO?
Recent results in tomorrow’s November Handicap at Doncaster point up five horses with all the credentials on the stats. Of these, Forgotten Hero and Nicholascopernicus are the only course-and-distance winners in the race.
A Aged 3, 4 or 5 (10 out of 10)
B Carried less than 9st (six in a row)
C Previously won or in the frame at Doncaster (five in a row)
ABC COMMUNICATOR Top of the Racing Post Ratings on past form, though they are likely to revise their figures and produce a ‘future rating’ tomorrow.
Communicator is lightly raced this year – four runs – so will be fresher than most. He was beaten less than a length in the race last year off 94 and is 3lb now.
The negative is that Communicator was first-time hooded at Chester for his last race, going for a repeat in an event he won along the way to Doncaster last year. Backed in to 4-1, he was only fourth, beaten five lengths.
ABC EX ORIENTE Nicky Mackay, a throwback to the days of the super-lightweight jockeys, foots the card on Ex Oriente, who has raced only twice this season.
On two occasions in the frame on Town Moor, Ex Oriente is now down to within a pound of his last winning mark at Newmarket 14 months ago. Nicky has won and been fourth in his two rides on him.
This is Ex Oriente’s third race for Stuart Williams. He did his winning – at Lingfield and in that Newmarket race – for John Gosden, who saddles topweights Aiken and Lahaag tomorrow, 22lb and 19lb above him. Gosden has won the November twice in the last four seasons.
ABC FORGOTTEN HERO (16.0 on BETDAQ this morning) Though seen out eight times, and starting his season in the Spring, Forgotten Hero waited until mid-September before registering success in 2014.
But it was a good pointer to this race: it was run over tomorrow’s course and distance – at Doncaster over 1m 4f – his first attempt beyond 10 furlongs, and the step up in trip seemed to suit.
He beat John Gosden’s Greatwood, who came to the race from the Dante Stakes and the Royal Ascot ‘Derby’ (King Edward V11 Stakes). After Doncaster, Greatwood returned to Ascot and ran second in a Listed
ABC NICHOLASCOPERNICUS (15.5 on BETDAQ this morning) Another lightly raced this season – just four runs – but has shed only 2lb from the rating that was revised upwards by 9lb after he won a handicap at Goodwood last October.
He was subsequently fourth favourite at 10-1 SP for the 2012 November Handicap but struggled on a surface too sound for him at Doncaster that day.
Finished well at the end of 1m 4f returned to Doncaster on easier ground at the end of last month, and must have a realistic chance under Andrea Atzeni for the Ed Walker yard tomorrow.
ABC TWELVE STRINGS Like Forgotten Hero, he’s hit form at the right time, scoring on the soft at Nottingham at the end of October, his first success for just over a year.
In fact, he’s now won in October for three successive years. Can he hold his form and make an impact tomorrow?
THE McCOY PARTY’S NOT OVER WITH MORE ‘FUN’ TODAY
1.00 Musselburgh Some good judges will be disappointed if Clever Cookie (around 4-1) doesn’t take this, first time over hurdles, returned to the right-handed Edinburgh track.
Franciscan has to give seven lengths away (in pounds per length) and Pulpitarian is not highly regarded, having started 40-1, 50-1 and 33-1 in his last three ventures.
2.35 Musselburgh Willow’s Saviour won eased down at Ascot but he’s up in trip, up in class, up in the weights.. and back in an open handicap after that success, which was in novice company.
But his nearest rival in the BETDAQ market as I write is another novice, who has never won a hurdle race. Keep going down the betting list (next another novice, Discovery Bay, after that a 10-year-old, Australia Day) and his chance becomes clearer.
In fact, the race seems to shape up like this: can Brunswick Royal, who was the moral in a Grade 1 at Aintree, 7lb higher than the narrow winner, give the weight away?
Nine Stories and Solaras Exhibition have won in class 3, yet are huge offers this morning as the market insists that this will go to an up-and-coming novice.
I fancy Population, first time in a handicap. He ran second to the subsequent Supreme Novices Hurdle runner-up, My Tent Or Yours, on his reappearance last term.
He’s not a big price but BETDAQ offers add up to a punter-friendly 106%, so value over the bookies, who squeezed 118% from only nine runners when Nine Stories won it from Smart River last year. I shall have to save on Willow’s Saviour, since he’s 9lb ahead of the handicapper.
3.05 Musselburgh In-form Venetia Williams sends one horse to e Edinburgh from her Hereford yard, the dual course winner Monetary Fund.
He’s favourite, with the nearest in the beating, So Fine, a horse that finished behind him at Chepstow in April yet is 6lb worse off. Monetary Fund must be the nap with his course form, surely.
3.45 Southwell The party’s over but A P McCoy had restricted himself to J P McManus mounts so that his 4,000th winner would come for that owner.
And, because he didn’t know yesterday’s outcome in advance (only I knew that in my Betdaq tips!), he restricted himself to one McManus mount today, Forthefunofit, in this race at Southwell.
There are several other possibilities in the race, including one or two with some form, and one or two well touted, so Forthefunofit is a bit short but likely to run very well.
6.30 Wolverhampton There’s a quality class-2 sprint on this card (5.20) but, with four front-runners, it is hard to predict. Seven times a course winner, Chookie Hamilton, who has won nine races in November- December-January, returns in this 6.30. He is 0104 when fresh but the stable is in good form.
Chookie’s nine now – 10 in a few weeks – and there are six other older horses in this race, aged six, seven, eight and 10. It has me hunting for youth and speed.
Alan Swinbank, who is currently 3-7, saddles Fly Solo as his only runner of the day. Returned at Catterick recently after a break and looked big at 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Guising (offers of 15.0 were quickly grabbed, including by me) was the ‘moral’, carrying a welterweight at Wolver, third in his first ever race.
Since then, he’s won twice on turf but failed to hack it raised in class. He’s back to his winning level tonight.
Lean On Pete landed three in a row on tonight’s course but steps up nearly half a mile here. Muhtaris stayed on well over shorter last time and the Teofilo three-year-old should improve.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Bets are to win 20 points, except stakes savers, Daq Multiples and ante-post bets)
BET 5pts win CLEVER COOKIE (1.00 Musselburgh)
BET 7.5pts win POPULATION and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) WILLOW’S SAVIOUR (2.35 Musselburgh)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) MONETARY FUND (3.05 Musselburgh)
BET 2pts win FLY SOLO and 1.4pts win GUISING, with 2.3pts win (stakes saver) MUHTARIS (6.30 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble CLEVER COOKIE (1.00 Musselburgh), MONETARY FUND (3.05 Musselburgh) and FORTHEFUNOFIT (3.45 Southwell)
ANTE-POST (win-30) 2pts win on each FORGOTTEN HERO and NICHOLASCOPERNICUS (November Handicap, 3.35 Doncaster tomorrow)
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