NAP AND BIG FIVE WINNERS UP! Daqman had another racing day to remember yesterday, with his nap (Cloud Creeper WON 9-4) among five winners, all at top prices, starting with a one-two (Strawberry Hill WON 7-2 and Sitting Back 2nd 6-1), which paid 25.52 for the Ladbrokes forecast.
77 POINTS PROFIT ON THE DAY: The fabulous five came from Fontwell, Kelso and Leicester as, for the second time this week, he spread his bets all over these islands. This time he forgot his Daq Multiples, but still made 77 points profit from the singles alone:
WON 6-1 DEFINITE FUTURE
WON 9-2 WARRIORS TALE
WON 7-2 STRAWBERRY HILL
WON 14-5 GLINGERBURN
WON 9-4 CLOUD CREEPER (nap)
BROXBOURNE BACK TO THE RIGHT TRIP
1.30 Sandown Peter Carberry is the winningmost rider here but, on percentages, the top ‘boy’ by far is Lizzie Kelly, with a fantastic 33% strike-rate in both hurdles and bumpers.
You can call them conditionals, you can call them claimers, though that is not all-embracing in this race: Maurice Linehan, Micheal Nolan and P Carberry, of course, have done too much winning to be allowed to claim anything.
My view of conditionals races is that you must have one of the better boys on a hold-up horse, one you’re sure has the strength to deliver, and sustain, a challenge.
Otherwise the ‘kick on and make them catch me’ approach works well, if the claimer in question has a clock in his or her head.
Oh, and it helps to be on a stable in form: Ian Williams, Lucy Wadham, Donald McCain, Conor Dore and Pat Phelan are the trainers currently doing well.
Howaboutnow (Williams) has had a long absence and gives weight away all round but has won fresh after a break. Tealissio (Wadham) is up 9lb.
Nafaath (McCain) is very difficult to win with, and Right Step (Phelan) failed to complete on the last day. That brings us to Conor Dore’s A Little Bit Dusty showing his first hurdles form at Kempton recently. And Carberry rode him into the frame in an open handicap in November: 8.4 in exchanges this morning.
2.00 Sandown The handicapper has thumped Arbeo a stone for landing a gamble at Huntingdon but thought Itoldyou’s win at Plumpton worth only 6lb.
Saroque has been pushed up 9lb higher than his winning mark for two seconds. and it may not be soft enough for him.
Liberty One’s chase rating was set to match his hurdles form but that hasn’t happened yet. Nor has Ballybough Pat’s emergence from the novice-chase ranks.
He was overfaced as a hurdler and may do better in this chase company, without beating No Duffer, who looked an improver on this ground in the autumn, and unlucky when sprawleing out of contention on the last day.
2.30 Sandown Henderson-Geraghty won this last year and Broxbourne has already scored over the trip. Didn’t enjoy the drop back in distance at Newbury on the last day.
Some pace to the race from Ballyhollow will also suit Briery Belle, another unlucky last time. Rons Dream has already run well in a Listed at this novice level, while Theregoesthetruth has winning form in open handicaps, albeit on soft-heavy.
Uranna ‘could be anything’ as a maiden winner on Boxing Day and the sole representative of the Willie Mullins empire, which is currently 1211411 with Ruby Walsh on a hat-trick for the yard if he wins today.
I’ll dutch Broxbourne (5.7 early mouse on BETDAQ) and 6.6 offer Uranna, with stakes to win 20 points, each bet as though both are around 6.0.
3.05 Sandown (Royal Artillery Gold Cup) Permission to speak, sir! Sally Randell, Jody Sole and Harry Wallace – two lance bombardiers and a captain – have all won this race in the last four years.
I say, old boy! Horses over the age of 10 are too old for it, the more so today on a sounder surface in a faster-run race.
Trainers on parade! Paul Nicholls has won it four times in the decade, last time – in 2013 – with Jody Sole spurring on Gwanako.
Salute the winner (wait for it)! Cowards Close (P Nicholls, J Sole). Not very original I’m afraid.
3.40 Sandown This race usually launches some hot stuff. Punchestowns, 2008 (six wins after), Oscar Whisky, 2010 (won 10 of his next 13, still standing), Ile De Re 2012 (this race in a sequence of four from five) and, most recently, Northumberland Plate winner 2013, Tominator.
I read somewhere that four-year-old winners are rare. That’s because there’s only been two runners of that age in the last six years. One won (Ronaldo Des Mottes 2009) and one was also-ran, no chance at 66-1.
Where Ronaldo was on a treble, the same stable’s Bidourey now runs for a five-timer in the race after two bumper and two hurdles success.
But those contemplating a bet at long odds-on should note that he’s never run on a sounder surface. The going situation is guesswork over my cornflakes: it was drying up nicely, but rain is forecast.
4.15 Sandown Again, I want a young horse in this Tingle Creek of a 2m test, which is nearly 40lb below that level.
Four horses were on 5.5 or 5.6 on BETDAQ this morning, revealing the extent of your problem in trying to pick the winner.
But the task is made easier by stable form. Richard Lee hasn’t had one out of the first two from four runners in the last fortnight and has freshened up Tresor De Bontee for this.
Ut Majeur Aulmes is fairly well unexposed but hasn’t won since April, lacking a finish, while Pearls Legend is two years winless.
That leaves Arthur’s Oak, who’s been dropped 7lb by the handicapper after being beaten a total of 37 lengths in two tries over fences. Has never been out of novice company, hurdles or fences. Tresor De Bontee looks good.
FAKENHAM The McCoy royal tour is stopping off at Fakenham, where Clean Sheet (3.25) looks his good thing to go in our Daq Multiples.
Mr Lando (1.15) comes all the way from Ireland to be sold? Well, it’s doubtful he’s come for the Norfolk air. The usual assumption is ‘big gamble; big sale or buy-in’. But Mr Elliott is not Mr Curley; as far as I know.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes from 1 to 9, according to strength; 10 is a banker).
BET 2pts win MR LANDO (1.15 Fakenham)
BET 1pt win and place A LITTLE BIT DUSTY (1.30 Sandown)
BET 4pts win NO DUFFER (2.00 Sandown)
BET 4pts win on each BROXBOURNE and URANNA (2.30 Sandown)
BET 7pts win (nap) TRESOR DE BONTEE (4.15 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win trebles and 1pt win acca COWARDS CLOSE (3.05 Sandown), CLEAN SHEET (3.25 Fakenham), BIDOUREY (3.40 Sandown) and TRESOR DE BONTEE (4.15 Sandown)
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