10-1 IRISH IS THE LATEST DAQMAN: Daqman’s deadly burst of big-odds winners continued at Gowran Park yesterday when he added to his Ayr Gold and Bronze Cups with Annie Irish (WON 10-1), yet another handicap scorer. In two days he’s tipped:
WON 10-1 Annie Irish
WON 25.0 Brando (11-1 SP)
WON 20-1 Classic Seniority
THE TARGET IS MORE BIG WINNERS: Yesterday we outlined his phenomenal success with huge prices. Today Daqman looks at level-stakes betting. And tomorrow he’ll outline his plans for an even bigger winnings haul from the autumn double of Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch.
MONDAY BANKER: This afternoon DAQMAN has a confident banker in Hamilton, a handicapper in Leicester and three on the all-weather at Kempton to help those Monday blues.
NOT A FORTUNE BUT A LEVEL PROFIT
What’s the difference between 20-1 winners and 2-1 winners? The answer is nothing whatsoever, just as long as you get the right percentage of success in the long term and, for preference, you bet them at value, or at least bigger odds than the SP.
On the face of it, without considering value or staking plans, to break even or make a small profit you need one winner – and can afford 19 losers – if all your bets are 20-1, whereas, at 2-1, you need better than one winner in three.
I found that Shamrock was outgunning me at short prices – and still is despite measuring his results at SP – and I despaired at the narrow losses from my horses to follow.
But everything that goes around comes around if you are patient and consistent when you play the wheel of fortune.
The horses to follow (Fortune Cookies), which I last reviewed more than a month ago, don’t look so bad now that some over-extended horses have come down a peg or two and found their level.
So, again, the overall view – how many wins you can hope to have and at what prices – is the criterion for this type of betting. Here’s how the list looks now.
We’ve had seven of the 12 horses (58%) scoring 12 times from 37 bets, which is a very respectable 32% but we were glad of the 8-1 and 4-1 wins by Profitable to keep our head above water and give us a profit of two points.
As with Shamrock, you need to be a dab hand at a long-term level-stakes profit, which is a massive bonus because can be improved upon.
But he and I both dislike being tied down by horses to follow, preferring the varied daily options available on the BETDAQ exchange.
Another fault with the Fortune Cookies list was being stuck with the selection and often having to take a price with no value in it, so any profit at all is good going. More about that tomorrow.
––-301 Awtaad (Kevin Prendergast) Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes or Champion Stakes, Ascot, October 15
-22001 Cotai Glory (Charles Hills) No specific entries
——-1 Dannyday (Sir Michael Stoute) No specific entries
-—–-32 Dartmouth (Sir Michael Stoute) No specific entries
—-240 Easton Angel (Michael Dods) No specific entries
—-030 Exosphere (Sir Michael Stoute) Champion Stakes; Melbourne Cup, Flemington November 1.
–2222 Found (Aidan O’Brien), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, October 2; British Champion Stakes, British Champion Mares and Fillies’ Stakes
21113 Minding (Aidan O’Brien), Arc de Triomphe; British Champions Day (three entries).
—-111 So Mi Dar (John Gosden), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe; British Champions Fillies’ And Mares’.
-1140 Profitable (Clive Cox), No specific entries
-––22 US Army Ranger (Aidan O’Brien), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, October 2; British Champion Stakes.
-–-10 Usherette (Andre Fabre) Sun Chariot Stakes, Newmarket, October
CHAPARRCHIK TO BREAK HIS DUCK
2.40 Kempton Chaparrachik has been coming along slowly and was a decent fourth in a good Sandown maiden last time. He steps up to this relative marathon trip for a juvenile here which should be in his favour judged by his last start. Trainer Amanda Perrett and Pat Dobbs have teamed up for four winners already this season for a LSP of +5.50 and could add to that tally here with 8.4 an attractive early mark.
3.10 Kempton Raven’s Lady has run well on her two starts to date but she was easy to back last time suggesting that she may not be held in too high a regard by connections. With that in mind she is opposable at 3.35 and a chance is taken that the well-bred Agathonia may step forward from her debut run. Being by Street Cry she should appreciate this surface and the recent form of trainer Charlie Appleby’s yard gives hope at a morning price of 5.5.
4.10 Kempton Unsuspected Girl has been in excellent form winning two of her last three over a variety of trips and she seems worth sticking with despite a mandatory 6lb penalty. Her style seems to require her to be held up so this smaller field should help her chances of a clear passage and she has struck up a good partnership with 7lb claimer Sophie Killoran.
BACK THIS FILLY BY HOOK OR BYBROOK
3.50 Hamilton Bybrook is an impeccably bred filly who looked short of experience on debut, breaking slowly and only really getting the hang of racing late on. Should she improve for that experience, and there is no reason to think she shouldn’t, so this could be easy pickings for her. Her trainer has been on an excellent run with 12 winners in the last 21 days and the 1.85 available looks good value.
MODEL TO STRUT HER STUFF
4.30 Leicester Artists Model has shown improvement for a step up in trip on her last couple of starts and Henry Candy’s filly could be ready to break her duck now. She has a nice racing weight and there seems to be some early support for her on the BETDAQ exchange at an early price of 3.75.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BACK 5pts win CHAPARRACHIK (2.40 Kempton)
BACK 6pts win AGATHONIA (3.10 Kempton)
BANKER: BACK 10pts win (nap) BYBROOK (3.50 Hamilton)
BACK 7pts win UNSUSPECTED GIRL (4.10 Kempton)
BACK 4pts win ARTISTS MODEL (4.30 Leicester)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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