IRISH NATIONAL: 17.0 BETDAQ BET: It was Shamrock’s day yesterday with returns of 111, while Daqman’s tips came in 2222, including 11-1 Ryeolliean. The frustration of it! No wonder Daqman tries to turn the clocks back today, hoping Jim Dreaper can return to Irish National form, though he fears Ted Walsh, too, has his eye on the champagne with a 17.0 chance.
AINTREE HERE WE COME: It’s the start of Grand National week, and tomorrow Daqman will be looking at the myths and fallacies about the race that get in the way of finding the winner. His record since the start of the Flat:
Challenge: Daqman 7, Pricewise 2
Bankers: 11U
Naps: 1111U1010
Lays: 1
Big-race wins: 14-1, 8-1, 5-1, 4-1, 5-2
GRAND NATIONAL ABC AND DAILY GUIDE: Look out on Wednesday for Daqman’s Grand National ABC and, from Thursday to Saturday inclusive, his race-by-race guide to the Aintree meeting.
IRISH NATIONAL: CHAMPAGNE JAMES OR JIM?
5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National) After Jim Dreaper took out a licence at the age of 20, he made winning the Irish National a speciality, like his father, Tom, before him.
He won it four years out of five (1974-8), notably with a name that is still remembered far beyond the Greenogue Stables, even outlasting those who won seven years in succession for Tom. The name was Brown Lad.
I’m betting Jim can turn back the clock today, with one that’s been primed for the race, Los Amigos, and one out of the handicap, Sizing Coal. Two of the last four Irish Nationals have gone to horses carrying less than 10st.
I usually do an ABC Guide of positives on the big races. I will do so on the Aintree Grand National. But this Irish version is an XYZ of negatives, where X and Y are unknowns and Z is the absolute ground zero of the market!
In fact, in the last decade there have been winners at 50-1, 33-1 (four times), 25-1, 20-1, 14-1 and 12-1. Try to apply the positives and this is what you get:
Stat: all bar one this century (14/15) has carried less than 11st. Result of research: you can only really count out If In Doubt, and he’s claimed off.
Stat: all 10 winners in the decade had won right-handed. Result of research: Only three haven’t, and two of those have finished second going clockwise.
Stat: 18 out of 23 winners have been aged under 10 years. Result of research: well, we do have 10 candidates for the axe this time!
And nine winners in the decade have been rated 125 to 136. That seems to home us in on 12 younger horses in the bottom half of the handicap, of which Ted Walsh’s Champagne James has the profile of a stayer in the making.
Los Amigos has not tried a marathon trip but has three-mile hurdlers in his pedigree, has been aimed at this race for some time, and also has stayers’ form-figures: never out of the first four for two years.
There have been only two winning chases against the name of 7lb-claimer Jonathan Moore, which means he wouldn’t be allowed to ride in the Aintree National.
But he can get down below the 9st 6lb that Jim Dreaper’s second-string, Sizing Coal, will have to carry today, more than two stone less than he carted round Cork in January (second on a right-handed track).
Dreaper has Goonyella in the Liverpool National on Saturday after bringing him back to winning form in the Midlands Grand National recently. Both Goonyella and Sizing Coal are sons of Presenting; both are owned by Alan Potts.
Three runners today finished in the first four at the Cheltenham Festival: The Job Is Right, third in the four-miler; Grand Jesture, second to strong Aintree fancy, The Druid’s Nephew; and Willie Mullins’ Dogora, fourth in the Cross-Country.
That’s one of the old headaches at this time of year: did they have too hard a race to come on to win this? Certainly, this race is second choice, whereas for Los Amigos it is first choice.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I took 12.5 Los Amigos and 17.0 Champagne James on BETDAQ with a tickle on 98.0 Sizing Coal as the second string of my first-choice stable.
NOBLE START TO 15-MINUTE HOLIDAY YANKEE
2.35 Market Rasen The word is that Un Noble – half the age of paper favourite Phare Isle – is going places.
That was certainly the impression from his first handicap, and he can continue Nicky Richards good seam of form with middle-of-the-way horses this season.
2.40 Chepstow It’s not impossible, but unlikely, that Carruthers can repeat his Newbury Silver Jubilee Handicap success. To get the same energy from the 12-year-old in little more than a fortnight would be a physical rarity for any racehorse.
Paul Nicholls made his usual Saturday killing, with three wins out of four, and has a sensational brace of jockeys in Sam Twiston-Davies and Sean Bowen, the sons of top-class trainers.
The ground is right for Just A Par, though he’s never won a chase outside novice company. But the same applies to the twicer Gevrey Chambertin, and there you have the two top-weights.
Global Power has not delivered his promise and is now high in the handicap for two class-3 wins. But he’s hardly as in and out as Victors Serenade who wins or pulls up, with more of the ‘pulled up’ recently.
Just A Par and Tinker Time (at his best) deserve equal ratings on a line through Masters Hill, and he might just be the value from the middle of the handicap.
I took 20.0 Tinker Time on BETDAQ and put Just A Par in my Bank Hoiliday yankee, which will be all over in 15 or 20 minutes!
2.45 Redcar The third leg is Alnashama, a strong whisper from my man in the long grass, and the Charles Hills’ colt has come clear of the field in the BETDAQ market this morning.
2.50 Plumpton While Sean Bowen has a favourite’s chance on Just A Par, Sam Twiston-Davies can stop Nomadic Storm’s sequence on Hopwlongisafoot.
The drop back in trip, the better ground and the flatter track are all in his favour after being caught out on the Sandown hill. Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 7.5pts win UN NOBLE (2.35 Market Rasen)
BET 4.5pts win JUST A PAR and 1pt win and place TINKER TIME (2.40 Chepstow)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) HOWLONGISAFOOT (2.50 Plumpton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 4.3pts win LOS AMIGOS, 3pts win CHAMPAGNE JAMES, and 1pt win and place SIZING COAL (5.00 Fairyhouse)
BANK-HOLIDAY YANKEE (1pt stakes): UN NOBLE (2.35 Market Rasen), JUST A PAR (2.40 Chepstow), ALNASHAMA (2.45 Redcar) and HOWLONGISAFOOT (2.50 Plumpton)
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