DAQMAN’S ‘LUCKY SEVEN’ ANTE-POST BETS: Some Daqman ante-post bets have shortened. Some of his long-odds ‘kites’ are blowing in the wind. Here, in his summing up of the situation so far, he goes in again at the revised offers.
LOOK OUT THIS WEEK: BETDAQ DAY AT DONCASTER: Don’t miss Daqman’s race-by-race guide to five consecutive key races on the Wednesday card at Doncaster, sponsored by BETDAQ to the tune of more than £40,000.
Do you want the good news or the bad news? It’s the way of ante-post betting that some you win and more you lose. That’s why you need big prices and small stakes, as you try to position for a trade.
In the case of this column, we are living through the rose-tinted spectaculars of three recent Cheltenham and Liverpool bets.
We had 60.0 on BETDAQ about an 8-1 Grand National third (Seabass), 17.0 about an 11-1 Champion Hurdle winner (Rock On Ruby) and 11.5 about an 8-1 Gold Cup hero (Synchronised). Here are this year’s positions so far:
Annie Power (3.4pts at 9.8 on BETDAQ, Mares Hurdle, Cheltenham). Well, we’re in a few decimal points to 9.2, as I write, but no margin for a trade.
Such is her supposed versatility that, though she is a 21f-maximum mare so far, she could yet go for the 16f Champion Hurdle (15.5 offers on BETDAQ says she won’t) or the 24f World Hurdle (4.2 offers and my colleague Waggaman say she will).
As I’ve said before, much depends on whether her stablemate Quevega runs in the mares’ race. Or should I say whether the Quevega we know still exists.
She’s a once-a-year-horse, regular as clockwork – we never see her or hear of her otherwise – but the clockwork depends on whether trainer Willie Mullins can yet again wind up the spring in this great granddaughter of Mill Reef who will be 10 years old on April 11.
Willie won’t really know for sure about Quevega for almost a couple of weeks yet. Will his announcement be to vacate her throne, or will the queen come back for a sixth consecutive crown in the same race?
If she does, Willie may well switch ‘Annie’ to the World Hurdle. She is the same age as Inglis Drever, My Way De Solzen and Big Buck’s when they first won it. But Willie never has won it. And I can’t find a mare who’s won it since Rose Ravine (1985).
As for our ‘guess the winner ante-post’ game, we can cover our Mares’ Hurdle bet about ‘Annie’ in the World Hurdle if that is the decision. We await Willie’s will-she-won’t-she verdict.
First Mohican (1.5pts at 20.0 on BETDAQ, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham): This is a different game, where you back the horse to win its trial and spend the winnings in advance (cheeky) on its ante-post target.
That’s what we did with First Mohican, landing the nap at Doncaster after taking 20.0 on BETDAQ. He’s 14.5 as I write but as low as 12-1 with the majority of bookmakers.
Gevrey Chambertin (1.75pts at 18.0 on BETDAQ, RSA Chase, Cheltenham): Stopped to nothing like a horse with wind problems in the RSA Trial at Ascot on Saturday, albeit after getting involved in a private duel with Many Clouds. No wonder O’Faolains Boy could hunt them up and slip by on the run-in.
But Many Clouds was still the ‘moral’, beaten two and a half lengths, giving 4lb to the winner, and he is the one I would take out of the race – visibly staying on again – though improving only a couple of pounds, if the handicapper has the third horse right.
Snag is that every one of these animals may take time to get over that rampage in the mud. And time is not on their side for Cheltenham, so it may have to be Aintree.
Last Instalment (3pts LAST INSTALMENT at 11.0 on BETDAQ, Cheltenham Gold Cup): Another that did us proud at the time we backed him for Cheltenham, making all the running in the Leopardstown Hennessy, his fifth win out of six.
This morning he’s down to 9.4 on BETDAQ, as low as 6-1 with two of the so-called Big Five bookies, and generally 7-1 or 8-1. Sitting pretty; even more so if the race sheds one of the market leaders.
Rocky Creek (1.1pts at 28.0 on BETDAQ, Grand National, Liverpool): If you fancy him for Aintree, you can now get 56.0. Go on, have another pound! But what on earth has happened?
Well, P. Nicholls, seldom one to keep a young horse at home when there’s a brick wall to climb, announced that ‘Rocky’ might find the National a horror show at his age, and that he would more likely go for the Gold Cup.
Well, he won’t win ‘gold’ (famous last words) but I can hear an old refrain in my other ear, which would sound like this a few days after Cheltenham. ‘My horse didn’t have a hard race in the Gold Cup, so he’ll go to the National after all.’
‘Rocky’, by the way, is the same age as Bindaree when he won the big’un at Aintree in 2002. But, as I’ve said in this column, the last four Nationals have gone to horses of a double-figure age.
Ditcheat note: ‘Rocky’ may look high in the Aintree handicap now but a good run in the Gold Cup scuppers his chances of a better deal from the handicapper another year. I hope this big galloper doesn’t fall between two stools!
Balthazar King (1pt at 39.0 on BETDAQ, Grand National, Liverpool): With P Nicholls seemingly cutting the string on my Rocky Creek kite, I turned to a horse who got round, albeit well beaten, in the National last year.
He remains 33-1 with the bookies, though has peaked at 41.0 on BETDAQ (have another pound!). I maintain that he is a stronger horse this season – now 10 – having won three in a row this autumn-winter, including a cross-country.
Un De Sceaux (1.8pts at 17.0 on BETDAQ, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham): Another baby like Annie Power – only more so – and another headache for Willie Mullins; a headache most trainers wish they had.
Should he go for the Champion Hurdle, after so few starts, and aged only six? Just 10-1 with some firms, and a meaningful short-as-short 8-1 with Ladbrokes, but out to 25.0 on BETDAQ, despite another ‘walkover’ when hardly tested at Gowran Park. Another pound? Of course. The Ladbrokes’ price says we must, we must.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: We’ve spent only around 17 points (including small additional stakes in the Daqman’s Bets list below) but have nothing much to trade so far, except a bit of First Mohican. At the amazing BETDAQ offers, we just need one strike.
In anticipation of a good-ground Cheltenham, I shall spend my time in the coracle (remember, I live near the flood plains in the S. West, still afloat somewhere between Nicholls and Pipe), going through the form books to find one they’ve overlooked that will motor past the heavy-ground-form horses at a price. Watch this space!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win GOLDEN JUBILEE (3.15 Wolverhampton)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) MASTERFUL ACT (4.00 Southwell)
BET 1.45pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) JIROFT (4.45 Wolverhampton)
ANTE-POST BETS (to win 30 points each): 1.25pts win UN DE SCEAUX at 25.0 (Champion Hurdle), 0.75pts win BALTHAZAR KING and 0.5pts win ROCKY CREEK (both Grand National)
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