DOUBLE OF BANKERS WITH McCOY: Today Daqman examines the two jumps cards at Lingfield and Musselburgh, and rates a Tony McCoy pair for bankers, with the champion back to top form, but he also names two outsiders at the same meeting. The state of Daqman’s betting features at the start of the week is as follows:
2015 Naps: 2202
(Current bankers: 11121)
2015 Bull’s-Eye Bets: 1 (+42 points)
(Current Lays: 111)
(Challenge: Daqman 11, Pricewise 7)
BETDAQ RACING THIS WEEK: There’s a seven-race BETDAQ-sponsored card at Doncaster on Friday to look forward to, followed by the big weekend races, the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday and the Dan Moore Memorial at Fairyhouse on Sunday.
WHY SOME OUTSIDERS GRAB THE GLORY
LINGFIELD: It’s a long, long time (2006-8) since Nozic (2.40) landed seven wins and four seconds from 12 races for Guillaume Macaire and then Paul Nicholls but he scored at Plumpton in March and was back to approaching that form when third at Leicester last month.
The 14-year-old’s revival is all down to current trainer Zoe Davison, who will get a special cheer from the local Lingfield crowd for niftily nicking nearly £5,000 in Tolworth Hurdle prizemoney with Thelordbewithyou’s third to L’Ami Serge on Saturday.
Zoe’s only other runner in the last fortnight has been a 12-1 winner, Frank N Fair at Bangor three days before Christmas, and she gets 100% for these performances from the Racing Post’s computer, though 100% of Nozic’s current ability may not be quite good enough.
Three among today’s field are half his age or less. One of them, Future Gilded, who has run twice in his six years, could be described as somewhat unexposed alongside Nozic’s 50 under Rules.
Another local Sussex runner, Gary Moore’s Gores Island, drops down to this level for the first time since he fell two from home when about to win his first chase at Exeter in April.
Gore’s Island made a very promising return over hurdles at Sandown in November and was a winner a grade higher at Sandown 14 months ago before he went chasing, for which his mark is currently 8lb lower than for hurdling.
Paddy The Stout could go well, returned to his winning trip, and Marie des Anges should be watched in the market, but the danger to Gores Island may be stablemate Grab The Glory, who was as good as some of these over hurdles, though hasn’t been seen since tackling a certain Dodging Bullets in a beginners’ chase 14 months back.
It’s becoming a regular thing (the latest Paul Nicholls’ Mon Perrain at 25-1 and Willie Mullins’ McKinley 33-1) how a seeming second-string outsider can pinch a race from a well fancied stablemate at the front of the market.
I shall keep a list of them and check whether they continue in the same form, or whether the whole thing was a flash in the pan. It’s suggested to me that they could be horses which are best when the attention is off them.
It’s easy to ‘get underneath’ some animals and if they are ‘left alone’, they do far better than when they are under the spotlight to win a race.
Whether Grab The Glory is up to it today or not, we have to have a small side-stake on him just in case. From outsiders to seeming good things for that non-pareil Tony McCoy.
McCoy, superb in a Sandown hat-trick on Saturday, rides two at Lingfield today: Cloudy Copper (1.40) is likely to be odds on, a good second in his first chase after a long break.
Another woman trainer currently getting 100% from her horses, according to the trade paper, is Pam Sly, with two wins from three starters since Boxing Day, but Iconic Rose is getting only 7lb from Cloudy Copper in her first chase, though rated 31lb inferior over hurdlers.McCoy’s other mount, Rouqine Sauvage (2.10), ran five consecutive stinkers over hurdles but a low handicap mark on soft-heavy ground has produced a win and second worth a 15lb climb in the ratings.
Linda Jewell, with jockey Tom Cannon riding like the champion-to-be that some think he is, won the Sussex National yesterday with Itoldyou, and I’ll bet a pound that the combo can coax Maccabees (3.10) to place in the low-level Breathe Spa Handicap Hurlde: 14.0 on BETDAQ. Deep breath, then.
SOMERSET PLAYER UP FOR SCOTS CUP
MUSSELBURGH: The Kilmany Cup (3.00), which has cut up badly, should go to Somerset raider Philip Hobbs, with Royal Player, ridden by Richard Johnson, making an 858-mile round trip from Minehead, Somerset, to the Edinburgh track.
Richard’s do-or-die charge on Filbert at Wincanton on Saturday cost me (my bets were second and third for the £12,000 prize at Wincanton), though I confess with hindsight that I was nuts to try to dutch the two in a six-horse race.
Thanks for egging my face Richard. You owe me one with Royal Player, who looked a strong addition to the chasing ranks when he won at Ludlow just before Christmas.
I’ve been rubbing it in how out of form Don McCain is, though he did manage a novice hurdle win at Newcastle on Saturday (now 2-34) and could hardly be blamed for yet another defeat for Bourne, who himself has managed 20 on the trot, despite dropping 35lb (watch for him in a seller?)
So I’m not undly fearful of Lively Baron, in receipt of 16lb from Royal Player but giving away four years and beaten favourite the last twice. At a glance, I’d be more worried about Lucinda Russell’s pair at the foot of the handicap but she, too, is on 20 lose s in a row.
And the one with potential, because aged only six, Island Heights, is still a novice, so far racing off the same 115 as over hurdles. That 22lb short of Royal Player’s quality will be a big gap on a decent surface for a novice who could well make the odd jumping error.
Richard Johnson takes an earlier ride on Vision De La Vie (2.30), an improver stepped up to this trip over the Musselburgh CD on the last day. I’ve put up my own yankee but you could just as well try the McCoy pair with the Johnson duo, though I’m content to treat Vision De La Vie as a stakes saver for Royal Player.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Strength 1 to 9; banker 10)
BANKER BET 10pts win (nap) CLOUDY COPPER (1.40 Lingfield)
BANKER BET 10pts win ROUQUINE SAUVAGE (2.10 Lingfield)
BET 6pts win VISION DE LA VIE (2.30 Musselburgh)
BET 5pts win GORES ISLAND, and 1pt win and place GRAB THE GLORY (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win ROYAL PLAYER (3.00 Musselburgh)
BET 1pt win and place MACCABEES (3.10 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca CLOUDY COPPER (1.40 Lingfield), ROUQUINE SAUVAGE (2.10 Lingfield), GORES ISLAND (2.40 Lingfield) and ROYAL PLAYER (3.00 Musselburgh)
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