ARC WINNER AND NAP AT MORE THAN 10-1 FROM DAZZLING DAQMAN: In a superb display of top tipping, Daqman had four winners on Arc day at Longchamp yesterday, including the big-race double: Treve (WON 4.8-1, Arc de Triomphe) and Altano (nap, WON 10.6-1, French Gold Cup). This is how his Paris spree went:
WON 1.7-1 KARAKONTIE, 2 bets
WON 4.8-1 TREVE (Arc), 2 bets
WON 4-5 MOONLIGHT CLOUD (double with Altano)
WON 10.6-1 ALTANO (nap, Gold Cup), 1 bet
HE HAS FIRST FOUR IN HIS BIG-RACE TOP SIX: The top six of his Arc order-in included winner, second, third and fourth, Treve, Orfevre, Intello and Kizuna, and his plotting of the placings went close right down the list. He forecast 5th for Ruler Of The World (finished 7th), 7 Flintshire (8th), 8 Al Kazeem (6th), 10 Meandre (10th), 12 Joshua Tree (13th), 15 Pirika (15th).
HE HITS THE TARGET WITH 208 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman wanted to reach his 200-points target over the weekend and, in fact, his Longchamp haul took his profit on all bets at recommended stakes on BETDAQ to 208 points in 13 lucky days. ‘Lucky?’ says Daqman. ‘I think you mean BETDAQ value’.
Not many fillies can keep me up at night these days! But midnight saw me still Youtubing the greatest Arcs to find a match for Treve in history. She flies like a bird.
In fact, some have said ‘best since Sea Bird’ but the 1965 winner was a galloper, who struck the front at the head of the straight and went further and further away, beating the winners of the American, Russian, French and Irish Derbys.
Treve was more like Dancing Brave in 1986. He was only 10th at the turn-in, seeming to have an impossible task coming to the final furlong but scything down the outside. In a different league.
In many ways Treve’s is the more remarkable because she had nothing like Dancing Brave’s maturity: he’d won the 2,000 Guineas, Eclipse and King George, missing out on the Epsom Derby only through an over-confident ride.
Treve had had just four starts, staying within Group-1 races for her own sex, winning the Diane (French Oaks) and Vermeille, and yesterday she had to contend with a stall-15 draw which I said might play to her strengths. Didn’t it just!
She accelerated off the soft ground from the rear and, in 18 seconds, was on the shoulders of the leaders. In a few more strides, she was head and shoulders above them all.. and the vast majority of Arc winners.
She beat French, Japanese and English Derby winners, the nearest Intello (3rd) and Kizuna (4th). I think we’ll see Kizuna again. I hope we see Treve. Just so that we can believe our own eyes!
TODAY’S RACING: Phil Bull used to condemn spending on races which didn’t work out, and he would have recommended diverting funds from the Phil Bull Trophy (3.40 Pontefract) long ago.
It was a ‘good idea at the time’ and, in its first two seasons had fields of seven and 10 but has hardly matched that total of 17 since. Add the last four seasons together, and you get only 19 (from fields of 4, 4, 5 and 6, and now there’s just 4 today).
It has become a tactical race which makes it difficult for punters, with the last three favourites all beaten, and the ‘contest’ run 17.5 seconds slow last year.
But 2010 takes the Pontefract cake, clocked an appalling 23 seconds slow. It took less time for Treve to demolish an Arc field!
Statutory (official rating 100) and Mutual Regard (95) are 7lb ahead of the remainder this afternoon, and it’s 10.0 bar two on BETDAQ in a punter-friendly 105% list of offers in the orange, as I write.
They might walk round just that bit quicker this year, since they race on drying ground, as opposed to the soft and good to soft of those melodrome-style, slow-go races of 2010 and 2012.
I shall throw a pound at Almagest (10.0 offers) because he won a similar sound-surface two-miler with a small field at Beverley and hung fire on them until putting in a sprint finish.
Of course, Statutory could ‘do a Mark Johnston’ and take them on from the start but he’s too short for my usual stakes and I don’t rate him a maximum-stakes banker, so Daq Multiples beckon.
First Secretary (4.40) is another who will relish the return of a sounder surface. Roger Charlton, who has a punter-friendly record at Pontefract (40% strike rate), also saddles first-time-in-a-handicap Stomp (2.40), a half-sister to Mince.
I shall play one of my stop-at-a-winner bets, but I’ll have a small-stakes double in case both win. And I’ll double them both with Statutory.
With Rhombus and She’s Late needing rain, and others seemingly exposed, Alegra looks the pick of the class-3 handicap at Windsor (3.50). Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points) 8pts win STOMP (2.40 Pontefract), if lose 6pts win (to win 20 plus Stomp’s stake back) FIRST SECRETARY (4.40 Pontefract) and 1pt win double the two.
BET 2.2pts win ALMAGEST (3.40 Pontefract)
BET 7pts win (nap) ALEGRA (3.50 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Stomp (2.40 Pontefract) and Statutory (3.40 Pontefract) and 2pts win double First Secretary (4.40 Pontefract) and Statutory (3.40 Pontefract)
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