SOME SECRETS OF THE DAQMAN BETTING DOSSIER: After yet another sensational Saturday, we asked our man to give some of his secrets away, and list Daqman Do’s and Don’ts of betting. His nap today is at Wolverhampton and his Outsider at Kempton.
BETDAQ OUTSIDER A GAMBLED-ON THIRD: Following a 14-1 winner, Tatenen on Saturday, Daqman’s win-and-place Outsider Of The Day yesterday, Prosperity Square (3rd 9-2 from 10.0 on BETDAQ), was a market gamble at Fairyhouse but was too one-paced to win, as was his nap, Herdsman (2nd 11-2), staying on late at Carlisle.
Is it the horses or the trainers that make fools of us? Or do some horses make fools of their trainers? You might want to read between the lines as I reveal some of my positives and negatives about betting.
I constantly revise my own rules, regularly declare new intentions, and very often go back over old territory to see what I have missed.
Here’s an old one, but yours truly forgot all about it these last two weekends in the heat of battle: If a trainer has more than one runner and you fancy him to win, you have to back them all.
I was about to scream ‘you’re taking the Mickey’ when I backed Arthurian Legend last Sunday week, as his stablemate, Pateese, boxed on at 33-1 in a Pertemps qualifier and was only run out of it on the run-in at Newbury.. by a horse called Mickie.
Then, on Saturday, I followed the trainer’s bullish remarks about Batonnier, only for the same stable to win the race with 16-1 Vendor, one week on, but also at Newbury. Here is a list of some other ‘do-and-don’t’ rules:
DO look out for horses dropped in class, as was Tatenen (won 14-1) on Saturday. He’s now won three in a row when slipped in to handicaps below Listed and Graded level.
DO watch for horses down in the ratings. I make no apology for putting in Tatenen as the example again. He had been dropped 22lb in half a dozen starts and was 15lb below his last winning mark.
DO assess the race on the day. In addressing it, line up the flag for each horse, as you would when preparing your drive down the fairway.
Is everything right? Distance, ground, weight, even the wind velocity (the legendary Phil Bull, founder of Timeform, used to ring the weather stations when a particularly close call was expected in a sprint).
Delete from each horse’s form those races in which he was unable to perform at his best because of the going, track, distance, quality of race and so on. Now you have something like his true form.
DO look closely at trainers’ tricks. On the reverse of the form-assessment coin I just spun for you is this question: which trainers run their horses on the wrong track, wrong ground and over the wrong trip to try to fool the handicapper? But..
DO remember that horses are animals, not machines. Whatever the devious ways of some trainers (you’d say ‘clever’ if you were the owner benefitting from their ‘expertise’), most horses simply cannot perform the same in two races running.
DO bet in quality races. I repeat my long-held adage: not below ‘C’ level. That now reads ‘not below Class 3’ but it shows just how many years – since before graded racing – that I have held the view that you should be betting quality horses in the pattern and in classes 1, 2 and 3 only..
DON’T: So ignore or reduce your stakes for horses of class 4 and lower: they simply don’t have the breeding and constitution to repeat their good runs next time. Winners at that level usually lose their next race, yet punters back them to win it! Plenty of lays there, then.
DO take an early position on BETDAQ in the morning. You will see from my Saturday and Sunday column that races in which the Total SP could be as high as 137% will be below 110%, often close to the round book (100-100), on BETDAQ in the morning, simply because those exchanging offers are not building in a profit margin. But..
DO think about your own profit margins. Price up the races, know what offers you want about a certain animal. If you want 3-1 and it’s 11-8, no bet. If you want 11-8 and it’s 3-1, get stuck in! But…
DON’T back a horse at huge odds unless it’s disguised or in a big race because, if that horse opened as an outsider or drifted to become one, the writing is on the wall: not busy, not capable on the day.
DON’T, as I have to do in this column, put your neck on the line with novices, as yesterday, whether chasers or hurdlers. They improve past each other, particularly up to January.
DON’T believe what you read, particularly the hype (‘this one’s a champion!’) until you have considered the race very carefully.
DO keep a list of horses to follow.. even if you don’t follow them! That sounds crazy but what you are about is watching the progress of each section of the game – hurdles, chases, stayers etc- and there is no better way than to have your own ‘stable’, buying or discarding as the season goes on.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points).
BET 7.5pts win (nap) SECRET EDGE (1.25 Wolverhampton)
BET 2.8pts win BALLYMAN (2.10 Plumpton)
BET 3.3pts win MIGHTY MAMBO (2.40 Plumpton)
BET 2pts win and place (Outsider of the Day) HOIST THE COLOURS (3.50 Kempton)
BET 3pts win FORTROSE ACADEMY and 2pts win RAY OF JOY (5.50 Kempton)
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