WOLVER NAP AS JUMPS ARE OFF: Jumps racing has been lost today with the abandonment of both Musselburgh and Sedgefield, frozen off, and attention turns to the Tapeta track at Wolverhampton – with Daqman napping there – and the Polytrack at Lingfield, where Frankie Dettori has a rare ride.
CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: Daqman continues his countdown to Cheltenham with updates on the Triumph Hurdle and the Champion Chase, based on the weekend racing in England and Ireland. His current standings at the start of the week are:
Lays results: 11111111111 (last 11)
Lays profit: 110 points to 10pt level stakes
Bankers results: 111111 (in 2015)
Bankers profit: 99.81 to 20pt level stakes
Naps results 113 (last three)
Naps profit: 17pts to 20pt level stakes
Bull’s-Eye Bets 2015 (staked to win 50 points): profit 40pts
2015 Challenge: Daqman 16, Pricewise 8
Overall (since 23 November, 2013): Daqman 124, Pricewise 67
HAVE ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHOCOLAT …
TRIUMPH HURDLE: He’s still overpriced. Our Triumph Hurdle bet, Pain Au Chocolat, which we took ante-post at 39.0 on BETDAQ, is down to 16-1 with bookmakers, 18.0 on the exchange.
But, with lines to the first two in the market, Alan King knows so much about the opposition that Chocolat still looks tasty at that 18.0.
King saddled Karezak to be little more than a neck behind Old Guard at Newbury in November and, with weight adjustment, he is about a 4lb better horse.
But Pain Au Chocolat beat Old Guard an easy seven lengths on Saturday and, again making weight allowances, looks the equal of Karezak on form, or better. And improving rapidly.
Hargam, who won again yesterday, and is quoted as low as 8-1 for Cheltenham, beat Karezak in December but comes out only marginally in front after translating the form to the weights carried.
Since then Karezak has done yet another great benchmark job, running second to Peace And Co, the Triumph favourite, earlier this month.
King’s exuberance for Pain Au Chocolat suggests that he has put the slide rule on all this collateral and, with his inside knowledge of how Karezak and Pain Au Chocolat measure up, has added two and two together and set sail four-square for the Triumph.
… BUT DON’T GET SILLY ABOUT CYCLONE
CHAMPION CHASE: I’d lay it today if I could. This morning’s ballyhoo about Hidden Cyclone for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham is so much hot air.
It arises from his victory in yesterday’s Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown but he’d even have difficulty winning that race again, if the weights were equalised.
In fact, the third horse home yesterday, Twinlight, did exactly that at Leopardstown over Christmas, beating Hidden Cyclone nearly five lengths on a level playing-field, when both carried 11st 12lb.
Yesterday, Hidden Cyclone was receiving 6lb from the runner-up and 8lb from Twinlight. I was hoping Twinlight would go on from Leopardstown and improve but, in fact, he and Hidden Cyclone are more or less running up and down on the spot, each getting a result according to the weights.
Twinlight was 8lb behind Dodging Bullets, with a race-rusty Sprinter Sacre splitting them, in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot which, on the two Irish results, gives the Cyclone nearly a stone to find. At age 10, he’s not going to do that, between now and March 11.
JOHN SHOULD REEL THEM IN AGAIN
WOLVERHAMPTON There’s a similar weights-change situation in the fillies’ handicap here (3.10), when Don’t Be and Fashion Line, the one-two at Lingfield in early January, meet again.
Including Michael Kenneally’s 7lb claim, Fashion Line is 10lb better off for only threeparts of a length and, taking the weights as sole arbiter, would reverse the placings easily.
Two snags. First of all, Fashion Line needs a strong pace at this trip but it’s a small field, and the race is likely to be tactical. Second of all (!), Don’t Be is trained by Sir Mark Prescott, who stakes his reputation on improving – and improving and improving – horses through a sequence of success.
Don’t Be is looking for a five-timer, though 21lb higher than in November. Can we say that Fashion Line is the value at 4.4 on BETDAQ this morning? Yes, we can.
But we need to take an early position. And we need a saver on Don’t Be later on.
This is followed by an even better race. We are treated to a class-2 two-miler at 3.40. Pity it couldn’t be reopened, so that we get eight runners. But since when did racing’s authorities consider the punter?
I’ve railed against media hype, and the horse of that name in this one – plus two other runners – will find it hard going at the age of eight. But all three have run well on this Tapeta.
The handicapper has given Media Hype a chance, dropping him 11lb lower than his last winning mark but that was in 2012. Very Good Day’s win over CD was two grades lower.
Ted Spread, who mixes AW with chasing and hurdling – and rarely wins in any discipline – did come out ‘the moral’ when second here over CD in December, giving weight to the winner, and beating dual December winner, Entihaa.
But that race illustrates my point: the winner was a five-years-younger horse, and you’d expect something to improve past him, and the other older horses, in today’s race. John Reel or Urban Castle?
Urban Castle steps up three grades and it looks safely in the hands of David Evans and John Reel, who’s won over hurdles and on AW at Lingfield, Southwell and here by 11 lengths at Wolver. Never out of the frame.
LINGFIELD At a low-level meeting at Lingfield, Frankie Dettori appears on an English racetrack for only the second time this year.
He rides the 250,000-guineas gelding, Wajeeh (they’ll never get their money back!) in the Ladbrokes Maiden Stakes (2.50). Market signals were strong, early mouse.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 shows the strength of the selection; 10 is a banker)
BET 5pts win on each FASHION LINE and (saver) DON’T BE (3.10 Wolverhampton)
BET 8pts win (nap) JOHN REEL (3.40 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles WAJEEH (2.50 Lingfield) with FASHION LINE and DON’T BE (3.10 Wolverhampton) and with JOHN REEL (3.40 Wolverhampton)
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