RUN! THERE’S MONEY TO BE HAD OVER THE RAINBOW: Daqman dares defy the Champion Chaser at Aintree today, relying on a previous winner in the Melling Chase, but it could be a close-run thing. His Topham Chase picks are 19.5, 14.5 and 10.5.
It’s A Gimme! Apart from, ironically, Follow The Plan, punters got it right on the opening day at Aintree yesterday with five winners out of the first six races at 9-2 or shorter at SP.
Darlan, Silviniaco Conti, Finians Rainbow and Fingal Bay are today’s hot dishes, all shorter than 2-1 this morning on a menu dominated by the Topham. You can be sure that one or more of them will go cold, but which ones?
As Bill, my stats anorak, said to me this morning: ‘You’re the professional and it’s Friday 13th; are you going to back them, stop at a winner; or lay them, stop at a loser?’ (Thanks, Bill).
2.00 Aintree: As ever, I’ll have to assess them one race at a time but this has always been a day of outsiders. For instance, there’s been just one winning favourite of this opener in the last decade.
Yet Darlan has only Prospect Wells anywhere near him on BETDAQ, as I write, and he comfortably held that one at Cheltenham; in fact, I’d be looking behind at Vulcanite and Agent Archie, freegoing sorts who should both appreciate this flat track.
Darlan had a hard race at Cheltenham and 14 of the last 20 winners of this had skipped the festival, though two previous J P McManus winners were among the exceptions, having finished second at Cheltenham as Darlan did.
On-course bookies who will be taking him on will rely on impressive Kempton winner, Right Step (13.5 on BETDAQ) and Captain Conan (13.0) who, strictly on form, beat Prospect Wells at Sandown by a country mile further than Darlan did at Cheltenham.
At those prices, I can back two outsiders, with a saver on Darlan, whom Tony McCoy regards as his ‘best of the week.’
As I said yesterday, you can’t do this kind of dutching with the bookies because the margins are too narrow: though only two horses are offered under 10-1 on BETDAQ as I write (102% ‘book’), there are four horses at single figures with most bookies (I’m looking at one list now, totting up to 116%).
2.30 Aintree: Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls try to improve on their two winners each since 2003, and I can’t see beyond the front two in the market nor choose between them. Five-horse fields are not my betting medium.
3.05 Aintree (Melling Chase): This is a race of champions – Voy Por Ustedes, Albertas Run, Master Minded – but Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow has to step up in trip for the first time today.
Albertas Run’s Ryanair second was yesterday let down by winner and third, Riverside Theatre and Medermit, but that was his first run back and I took the 3.3 on BETDAQ this morning. He loves this course.
3.40 Aintree (Topham Trophy): Just one winner in the last decade carried more than 10st 12lb, and favourites were more or less whitewashed (just one ‘joint’ won); otherwise there were 50-1, 33-1, 25-1 and 22-1 winners among the surprises.
Peter Bowen sprang three of them, with Always Waining (twice) and Dunbrody Millar at 25-1, 22-1 and 14-1. Always Waining misses the Grand National to go for a hat-trick today.
He loves the National fences: as well as winning the Topham, he has run fourth in it, and also fourth in the Becher Chase in December and sixth in the Grand Sefton.
But Gonebeyondrecall, Topham fourth last year, and Frankie Figg (sixth) reveal the measure of his task: both are now 11lb better off with Always Waining.
If you deduct all races going right-handed, Gonebeyondrecall has been placed in 11 of his 16 starts and has had this race as his target since last year.
Otherwise, I don’t think many will be able to get into this, since the race has a handful of horses who love to front-run, and it’s a question of which of them take to the big fences and avoid trouble.
Don McCain’s Fabalu (bests Nikola) gets 3m and jumps for fun from the front. The other pace-runners are Aimigayle, back to form and with a huge pull on the morning favourite, Triangular on recent Newbury running.
Other front-runners are Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Little Josh, last year’s Paddy Power winner, who has been dropped 10lb, and Apt Approach, who misses the National for this but is high in the handicap and needs rain.
I want to be on the side of the Aintree angels. Twiston-Davies is a dab hand with Aintree horses and, though the yard has not fired lately, his one runner yesterday, Astracad, finished second. McCain won the Fox Hunters’ Chase, with a great training performance on Cloudy Lane.
Fabalu is a fabulous 19.5 on BETDAQ this morning; and Little Josh 10.5. Gonebeyondrecall (14.5) makes up my trio against the field.
4.15 Aintree Here’s the horse that started to do a Big Buck’s: Fingal Bay was unbeaten in five starts before injury ruled him out of Cheltenham, but he was only a length in front of Ballyrock the last time we saw him, and the difference between their offers today (2.58 against 16.0 on BETDAQ) is all wrong, with the trip nearly half a mile further.
This is another race full of surprises: the last five runnings have seen winners at 33-1, 25-1, 20-1, 16-1 and 9-1.
Once again, you must exploit the BETDAQ offers: there are only two runners under 14-1 but Ladbrokes quote four, and Boylesport and VC five, at the time of writing, so BETDAQ is easily your best value medium.
A good run by Captain Conan in the opener would boost Tap Night and late-developer Golden Call has clearly been a blot on the handicaps he’s won. Gullinbursti missed a handicap yesterday to run in this conditions event.
Cotton Mill would have been placed in the Neptune but for veering and unseating his rider two out (can we trust him?), and Lovcen improved to run fourth in the Albert Bartlett.
It’s harder than the Topham! But the stats say to stick with the younger horses, aged five and six (8 out of 10). Tap Night (22.0 on BETDAQ) and Ballyrock (16.0) are too big. Fingal Bay is the stakes saver in case he really is that good.
4.50 Aintree The winners always comes from the bottom half of the handicap (11st 1lb maximum) but that’s what we said yesterday before Cape Tribulation won with top weight.
It’s A Gimme and Bourne are the only two offered shorter than 14.0 on BETDAQ where, again, the bookies have four at shorter prices and then flatten out the remainder at 16-1 to 25-1, so have a much bigger overround. Offers on the Daq go up to 92.0.
5.25 Aintree: Yet again, the favourite does badly; three of the last four winners have been 28-1, 25-1 and 20-1. Good luck with the pin!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.6pts win on each CAPTAIN CONAN and RIGHT STEP, and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) DARLAN (2.00 Aintree)
LAY to win 10pts FINIAN’S RAINBOW and BET 8.6pts win (nap) ALBERTAS RUN (3.05 Aintree)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.1pts win LITTLE JOSH, 2.2pts win GONEBEYONDRECALL, and 1.6pts win FABALU (3.40 Aintree)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2pts win BALLYROCK and 1.4pts win TAP NIGHT, plus 2pts win (stakes saver) FINGAL BAY (4.15 Aintree)
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