7-1 DAQMAN WINNER TIPPED AT 10.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman spelled it out at Kempton yesterday, Chapter And Verse (WON 7-1), a ‘pretty much sound investment’ at 10.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing his column.
GOOD ‘TIMES’ IN BACK-TO-BACK PROFIT: With Changing Times (WON 11-4) a cover bet at Taunton, he took his winnings in two days to 45 points, thanks largely to four successes at Kempton.
12.15 Cheltenham This race had its glory years from 2005-9, producing Arkle winner Tidal Bay, subsequent Grand National hero Don’t Push It and the luckless Exotic Dancer, twice placed in Kauto Star’s Gold Cups.
Five of the last seven successful here had already won a chase, and last year’s winning trainer, Nicky Henderson, has Broadbackbob perfectly primed, though his stable’s strike rate in this heat is only 1-6 and just one seven-year-old has beaten the younger horses in the last decade.
This will help reveal just how good is Poungach (who beat Super Duty) and Captain Conan (Rebel Rebellion was fourth behind him) but I can’t envisage a super-star emerging in today’s race.
12.45 Cheltenham The youngsters are again to the fore in the stats. It’s 8-10 for horses aged six and seven, which suggests that the market has it right: Valley View, Red Rouble or Lexicon Lad.
Valley View is badly in with Rebeccas Choice and I see that one as a bridesmaid; Red Rouble seems to score only when fresh; so I was looking at Lexicon Lad until I realized that he, too, ties in with Rebeccas Choice.
I ended up thinking that The Big Freeze might be hard to beat, as a Beneficial who was the ‘moral’ at Musselburgh on good ground, slogged his way up Haldon Hill on heavy – both 3m – and could show his stamina on the final climb today. I’d need a price. I got one: offers of 12.0 in a sub-110% orange.
1.20 Cheltenham Young blood wanted yet again: the stats say it’s 8-10 to horses aged four and five in this. Nicky Henderson (two recent wins) has had the only successful outright favourite since 2003.
The last two winners had scored a month earlier and were having their third run of the autumn-winter season. Step forward the progressive novice Turn Over Sivola, the only one to fit the stats.
Dark Lover (at 6.0) shades him in the BETDAQ market, as I write, now dropping back from an unsuccessful foray into Graded company after winning a conditional. Both races were at Cheltenham.
Henderson’s Tom Du Lys (8.2 this morning) wasn’t himself in the Spring when he tried to translate winning French form to Sandown. ‘He’s grown since and is a completely different horse,’ quote unqote Henderson in the trade-paper stable-tour.
In his ‘tour’, Alan King regarded Turn Over Sivola as a speedy two-miler so he might not be suited to the undulations of Chgeltenham but, of course, he has to find out.
As an Oscar out of a Deep Run mare, there should be no stamina doubts about Open Day, though his winning form is around 2m. Dan Breen is down a grade or two but I’ll stick with the ongoing Henderson-Nicholls duel at the offers.
1.55 Cheltenham Midnight Chase (holds Planet of Sound) tries to recapture his winning form in this of two years ago but has to give weight all round and no horse of a double-figure age has been successful in the decade. In his favour is a superb Cheltenham record: 5-9.
Quartz De Thaix is on a roll and Bradley was the moral on the old course in November, giving weight and beaten only a neck.
But the one I like for a pound is BecauseIcouldntsee, who comes alive at Cheltenham and looks a place banker at least, second in the National Hunt Chase (2010) and second again in that fabulous Kim Muir last March, won by Sunnyhillboy (who else knew?)
With the BETDAQ orange totting up to only 106%, I shall take the 6.6, with a saver on Bradley.. because I couldn’t’ see him being out of the frame either!
2.30 Cheltenham This is the type of race of which I usually say: ‘cross-countrys are pretty easy because they are won time after time by the same horse’. I then tip something else which ‘gets beat.’
After Spot Thediffefrence (two wins) and Garde Champetre (three in a row), the new kid on the Glenfarclas block seems to be Uncle Junior. But the trainer of those two giants was Enda Bolger, so I’ll take the young upstart, Arabella Boy, in receipt of 18lb. There, I’ve done it again.
3.05 Cheltenham My guess is that, after heavy rain and heavy hooves, the going will be pretty much churned up by this time.
That will suit At Fishers Cross; so will the step up in trip for this son of Oscar, out of a Supreme Leader mare, though Tony McCoy will have to watch his jumping. Cross Kennon loves it here. Saint Roque was unlucky on the course in November. Inish Island ‘could be anything.’
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 1.8pts win THE BIG FREEZE (12.45 Cheltenham)
BET 5pts win DARK LOVER and 2.7pts win TOM DU LYS (1.20 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE: BET 3.5pts win and 5.5pts a place BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE and 3pts win (stakes saver) BRADLEY (1.55 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE: BET 5.2pts win ARABELLA BOY and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) UNCLE JUNIOR (2.30 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE: BET 4.4pts win (nap) AT FISHERS CROSS (3.05 Cheltenham).
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Those marked Daq Value today were in races with 106% to 109% total probability in the offers at the time he was writing.
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