NOW IT’S FOUR NAPS OUT OF FIVE: Daqman continued to crack open his Christmas boxes with yet another winning nap yesterday, novice-champion Jezki (WON 11-8), a second big-race best bet of the week following Long Run (WON 15-8) in the King George. His other winning naps have been 9-4 and 5-4.
BIG IRISH CHASE ONE-TWO AT 5-1 AND 20-1: After winning jackpot bets on Long Run and Bakbenscher (WON 4-1 from 8.6 on BETDAQ), he landed the big-handicap chase one-two at Leopardstown from three bets with Colbert Station (WON 5-1) and Romanesco (2nd 20-1 but selected at 37.0 on BETDAQ).
112 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE DAYS: Jezki was doubled with the short-shot Simonsig (WON 1-7) and trebled with the massive outsider Romanesco as Daqman continues to try to plunder Daq Multiples. His profit in three days is now 112 points.
12.25 Leopardstown Though a brace of hot favourites have won the first two runnings of this race for Willie Mullins (Shamar), Gordon Elliott’s Mala Beach was paper favourite before Foxrock for Ted and Ruby Walsh claimed most of the morning money.
In fact, Shamar drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, well beyond the betting-weir of no-hopers to 22.0 as I write. Thunder and Roses, after his odds-on flop at Cork, and Sizing Solution, who has to step up from an ordinary Point, were also easy to back.
Foxrock has also won only a Point but the son of Flemensfirth – represented in the big one by Flemenstar and Tidal Bay – is obviously held in high regard.
However, it’s impossible to oppose Mala Beach on hearsay evidence for Foxrock: ‘Beach’ was surrounded by winners (second, fourth and fifth) when runner-up at Fairyhouse to Bright New Dawn, who ran third to Jezki at this Christmas meeting in yesterday’s Future Champions Novice Hurdle.
12.55 Leopardstown Horses under seven (8 out of 9), though rarely four-year-olds (1-9), and with 11st 4lb or less (7 out of 9) win this.
Those stats are not all they seem: the age group, yes, but in fact the last three winners have been rated 109, 110 and 115 off 10st 13lb to 11st 12lb.
Spotlight calls it ‘competitive stuff’ for a 0-116. However, only top-weight Grange and Treat Yourself have already ‘arrived’ at this level.
And it worries me that Treat Yourself is being claimed off, when we could have had Davy Russell up, albeit Gareth Malone has won on the gelding before.
Doc Hollywood has taken back-to-back handicaps but a 13lb rise for winning at Fairyhouse, over the same horse in second who had been third at Thurles, does not inspire.
The Flying Light and Spot Fine form is also repetitive without showing improvement for either party, so – though he, too, is up in the handicap for a comfortable win at Punchestown in November – I think Grange is the quality horse of the race.
1.25 Leopardstown (Christmas Hurdle) This race has recently produced strong World Hurdle contenders: a second and two thirds. Had Big Buck’s not stood in the way like a colossus, maybe they would now be champions.
Monksland doesn’t seem to have quite enough help from Zaidpour’s penalty to turn around their one-two at Fairyhouse (2m 4f) and, as he’s a 2m winner, only this race can tell us which side to be on: the one that says he’s a stayer with the speed to win at 2m, or the one that says his 2m speed proves that he won’t get 3m.
The pair of them gave 7lb and a beating at Fairyhouse to last year’s winner of today’s race, Voler La Vedette, and she needs to bounce back on ground which doesn’t suit but favours Zaidpour.
If Voler’s defeat by Whatuthink at Navan is taken at face value, Mailer Tree and Owega Star will fight this out. Snag is they’ve been beating each other and they, too, are not proven at 3m.
It’s a race to watch but I can’t complain if you want to get involved: the BETDAQ orange adds up to only 104% total probability this morning, as I write. That’s about the same as early doors with the bookmakers, except that you’d need to dodge about between six different accounts to get the fixed-odds that make up their ‘best price’ overround.
1.55 Leopardstown Willie Mullins may have this one sorted, with last year’s winner, Quiscover Fontaine, and market rival, Supreme Carolina, a battle of the big two jocks, Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh.
Walsh and McCoy were separated by half a length at the finish last year, and the runner-up that day, Pires, remains their nearest rival in BETDAQ exchanges this morning.
Can it all be that simple? Not when trainer Mullins is playing down the chances of the market leaders: Quiscover Fontaine ‘slow to come to hand’ and Supreme Carolina returning from a long break and ‘we’ll be happy if she can run into the money.’ And Pires? Prefers top of the ground.
That leaves me taking a punt on Rocky Wednesday (13.0 on BETDAQ), placed two from three on heavy ground and the ‘moral’ when runner-up at Navan recently, giving a stone to the winner.
2.25 Leopardstown Mullins has two in this as well, and Back In Focus looks a big shout in another Daq Value race (106% at time of writing) but six-year-olds are 8 out of 10, and it’s surprising how a season can bring them on.
One reason, in some cases, is that they don’t go their trip until well ready, and I think that ‘s the case with Dedigout. Back In Focus can stay all day but Dedigout, by Bob Back out of a Buckskin mare, should also love this step up in trip.
3.00 Leopardstown (Lexus Chase) Tidal Bay will be 12 in a few days time, Midnight Chase 11 and China Rock 10. That’s not the stuff of champions produced by this race: Beef Or Salmon won it at six, Denman 7.
And there’s every chance that one of, or both (we seem to get two top hoses together these days), Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs will emerge with very high rank after this Lexus.
Yet again today, we are talking about a step up to 3m, after Flemenstar slammed his rival at 2m 4f in the mud at Punchestown, having already won at Navan but with ‘Des’ on his first run back.
A magnificent 102% book of offers, as I write, reveals again that BETDAQ is the easy way to bet but you’re really choosing between the front two, in my opinion.
Flemenstar has never been asked over 3m, whereas Sir Des Champs made all (3m 1f) at Puncehstown in the race after he had won the Jewson at the Cheltenham Festival. As far as form is concerned, no contest. On potential, it’s the race of the day by far.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.2pts win MALA BEACH and 3.6pts win (stakes saver) FOXROCK (12.25 Leopardstown)
BET 8pts win GRANGE (nap, 12.55 Leopardstown)
BET 1.6pts win and place ROCKY WEDNESDAY (1.55 Leopardstown)
BET 5.5pts win DEDIGOUT and 4pts win (stakes saver) BACK IN FOCUS (2.25 Leopardstown)
DAQ-VALUE BIG RACE: BET 8.6pts win SIR DES CHAMPS (3.00 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Grange (12.55 Leopardstown), Dedigout (2.25 Leopardstown) and Sir Des Champs (3.00 Leopardstown)
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