ASK ME ANOTHER! IT’S 18.0 BETDAQ VALUE IN THE TROYTOWN: Has Daqman spotted the form tip in the Troytown Chase at Navan today? It was 18.0 on Betdaq this morning. But champion trainer Willie Mullins has also made this race his Target at 11.5.
Who is today’s comeback kid? The trend to younger horses seems to have ended abruptly this season or, to put it another way, last season’s youngsters weren’t up to much and are not following through (yes, I’ve caught up).
So it was that the older brigade – not six or seven, the prevailing age of Hennessy winners – were 1-2-3 in Saturday’s big race, with both first and second, Carruthers and Planet Of Sound, coming in from the cold.
In both cases, fine feats of training. In both cases, putting some heat into the Grand National market, with the staying on fifth and sixth, Beshabar and Wymott, adding to the possibility that we saw the Aintree winner on Saturday.
So, as I turn to the feature race of the day, the Troytown Chase in Ireland, I’m thinking: shall I put the pencil through Groody Hill, Some Target, Quadrillon, Stonemaster and Wicklow Lad, the main protagonists behind market leader Prince Du Beauchene.
In fact, it’s 7-7 between horses younger than eight and those of eight and over in the last 14 Troytown runnings, which has itself stirred the Aintree market in the past.
I’m remembering Foxchapel King (1999), Jack High (2004) and, most recently, Notre Pere (2008), but the snag with the Troytown is that, as in the last three years consecutively, and again today, it is run in soft-heavy ground, and that doesn’t get you in the frame on the amazing billiard table that is Aintree.
What that soft-heavy means to we die-hard punters (the only way I could have picked Carruthers was by following the Betdaq market) is that the winning weight carried in today’s Navan test has risen above 10st 9lb only once since 1998.
The other stand-out clue in past Troytown results is that the top yards usually win it. The roll of honour is a who’s-who of the big names in Ireland: Mullins, O’Grady, Martin, Dreaper, Taaffe, Moore, Morris, Meade and Walsh.
I see Mullins, Martin and Meade among the lightweights, with top jocks, Paul Townend, Paul Carberry and Davy Condon booked. That looks like a rich seam of gold.
Mullins it is who trains Prince De Beauchene (Ruby Walsh) but has his nephew, Danny, on Some Target below 11st and Quadrillon, with Townend up, off only 10st 7lb.
Quadrillon has always been seen as a staying chaser in the making, but success so far has come at 2m 4f and I prefer Some Target, who has won a 3m 4f Grand National Trial and was sharp enough to be second in a recent Clonmel hurdle. Danny Mullins rides him at home; that’s why he gets the mount here.
After all, Quadrillon was 10 lengths adrift of Tharawaat and The Hurl when they met at Gowran Park at the start of the year.
Tony Martin, who won this with Royal County Star (2007), has Condon doing only a few pounds above his minimum on Askmeroe but needing to make up a distance of ground on Wicklow Lad (holds Ad Idem) on their running in November.
But that was Askmeroe’s reappearance run and he was second to Wicklow Lad, trying to give away 17lb, on today’s course over an inadequate trip in February: today’s turnaround would see Askmeroe receiving a pound, so 18lb better, but Francis Flood has snapped up the very smart claimer Adrian Heskin for his CD-winning Lad.
The local horse, Cross Appeal (Carberry) – holds Stonemaster – cannot be ruled out but is only five. At the other end of the scale, last year’s winner, Jack The Bus, now 11, hasn’t run since that day, and Robbie Power has a hard task to get him through the mud first run back.
J P McManus has three in the stats zone, of which classy hurdler Ainama, in his first handicap chase, should prove better than Prince Of Fire and Groody Hill.
It will be a famous feat if Ruby Walsh can do it off 11st 10lb on Prince Du Beauchene, and I shall be backing Some Target (11.5), Askmeroe (18.0) and Ainama (24.0).
It’s 21.0 the comeback kid, Jack The Bus: come along now, please; move down the card!
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.8pts win SOME TARGET, 1.7pts win ASKMEROE and 1.3pts win AINAMA (2.20 Navan)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SPEED MASTER (2.40 Leicester)
BET 2.8pts win OPEN DE L’ISLE (3.00 Carlisle)
BET 2.3pts win FOLK TUNE (3.45 Leicester)
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