McCOY ‘CONNECTION’ FOR A BIG-ODDS NAP: Daqman relies on Tony McCoy today on a horse ’too big’ in the BETDAQ offers at Musselburgh, where our man tackles three consecutive handicaps and finds 10.5 (twice), 8.2 and 7.2 bets.
Musselburgh brings a bit of quality to a Monday and the meeting survived their morning inspection. There are three class-3 races of some substance, whereas the Fakenham equivalent – just the one contest at this level, the handicap chase (2.00) – has cut up to a handful of runners.
And punters will have a sour taste after the last few days of just how hard these small-field events are: you are usually left choosing between two, literally having to take sides on form which is similar, has to be judged on potential, or is separated by time, leaving you making decisions on fitness alone.
You are left in the same boat next time they meet, in the sense that it remains to be seen whether Sir Des Champs can come on enough after his first run back at Punchestown to trouble the winner, Flemenstar, in the future; is there going to be ‘another day?’
Then you get a case like Tarla at Cork when a horse takes a breather, then has to be ‘organised’ for the finish, exerting her superiority again but ‘lit up’ over the last. Down she comes.
I disagree about her fencing ability at this stage of her career. David Jennings in the trade paper says she ‘jumped fluently throughout’ but I thought she was overjumping quite a bit and, getting so high, she was always in danger of crumbling beyond a fence after such trajectory brought her steeply down. You don’t have to hit fences to be ‘novicey.’
At least she jumped out of the mud. That will be a test at Fakenham in fairly cling-on going today, but the ground will be much better at Musselburgh for the Weatherbys Bank Handicap Chase (1.20).
In fact, it’s strange at this time of year, particularly after last week’s downpours, to see so many top-of-the-ground horses, probably the main reason why the Edinburgh meet has a strong turn-out.
Without any overnight frost, the surface will be a bit ‘sticky’, which shouldn’t inconvenience my two against the field, Creekside and Quito De Tresor.
Civil Unrest, Glencree and Red Tanber all seem to need further, and don’t have the mud to slow the others down. Swift Arrow (holds Freddie Brown) and Kealigolane are class-4 horses and, though the novices, Houston Dynamo and Hazy Tom, could step up, both are front-runners and they have to meet ‘Quito’ on a similar mark in the handicap.
Creekside is a horse that needs to be caught fresh – his form is 111 after long breaks – so is his recent holiday, since his October success at Towcester, long enough?
Well, the offers are long enough in the BETDAQ orange for me to dutch Creekside (7.2) with 10.5 the course-winner Quito De Tresor, who was out of sorts in the summer but whose stable is currently striking at one in four.
Lightweights have a poor record – actually a nil return – in the Weatherbys Printing Handicap Hurdle (2.20), with no winners below 11st 5lb and, incidentally (or demonstrably), no four-year-olds successful.
Charlie Longsdon travels up for two cracks at it, with Skint the one within the stats parameters and Castletown Bridge a bit of a bridesmaid who has struggled a class below this one.
Yet he is favourite in the BETDAQ orange as I write, largely because not much else has form in class 3 and Skint hasn’t won for a year or so, and that in a chase, not a hurdle.
Rumble Of Thunder (holds Ultimate), a Listed winner last year, could bounce back, and Samstown returns to his right trip, while – whatever the stats say – Ubaltique and Hi George look dangerous.
But I’ll rest my case on Irish raider Latin Connection. He looks a bit big at 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning – more than double the offers Castletown Bridge? – with Tony McCoy booked for this easy Down Royal winner looking for the better ground in Scotland.
The final handicap chase (2.50) is wide open, and I shall have a bit of a punt on Etxalar at 10.5 on BETDAQ at the time of writing. He came back to form recently, cutting out a lot of the donkey-work at Haydock.
That was over 3m 4f and he’s now dropped back to a more comfortable trip, a stone lower than for his last win and 10lb below his length defeat on this kind of surface early in the year.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win CREEKSIDE and 1.9pts win QUITO DE TRESOR (1.20 Musselburgh)
BET 2.7pts win LATIN CONNECTION (nap, 2.20 Musselburgh)
BET 2.1pts win ETXALAR (2.50 Musselburgh)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).
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