DYNASTE STARS IN SUPER NAPS SEQUENCE: Daqman made it 10 naps out of 20 for a dead-on-50% strike-rate through Dynaste (WON 7-4) in the opening race of the three-day Cheltenham meeting yesterday.
7-1 ‘SHOOTERS’ ALSO SHINES FOR DAQMAN: His flying start continued in the very next race when he opposed the favourite, Kid Cassidy, and named Shooters Hill (WON 7-1). His naps sequence now reads: 11210131311201021021.
BETDAQ VALUE BEATS SP 10-2: All four of Daqman’s betting races yesterday were in punter-friendly BETDAQ lists of low overround. Three of the four had much higher bookies’ take-outs at SP. Since he started, the score is 10-2 to Betdaq, one a draw.
Having a bad cold last March could be worth nearly £100,000 to Grands Crus. It was a major shock when the unbeaten novice-chaser flopped in the RSA but he was afterwards found to have mucus in his throat.
Because of that his rating dipped a couple of pounds so not only does he get into a big handicap today, the Paddy Power Chase, but he’s not even top weight, languishing off 157, which is 12lb below the figure he carried into second place in Big Buck’s World Hurdle the year before.
Similar to the same Pipe stable’s easy winner, Dynaste, yesterday he is way in front of his Paul Nicholls’ rival on hurdles ratings (15lb over Al Ferof at the weights).
No, it’s Walkon who officially poses the threat: they are dead level on hurdles ratings and they also equal out on jumps ratings at the weights. Yet they are around six points apart in a fabulous list of BETDAQ offers, which add up to only 106%, as I write.
Betting in the four races which were 110% or less on the Daq paid off handsomely yesterday with the exchange having the better of SP in three races out of four, bringing the score in 13 races since I started Daq Value Bets to 10-2 (one tied) in favour of Betdaq. One race with 108% morning list of offers was SP overround at 120%.
12.45 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) The last four winners of this did precious little afterwards, though Sam Winner (2010) doubled up in the same-named trial at the December meeting.
Before that Alan King’s smart pair Franchoek and Katchit both continued in the headlines, taking second and first places in their respective Triumph Hurdles proper of 2006 and 2007.
Kingy’s candidate here, McVicar, needs to ‘do a Katchit’ and carry a double penalty, so giving weight all round (eight lengths start to the bottom four). He’ll have to be a lot better than the same stable’s Aintree winner, Handazan.
Far West slammed evens-favourite Handazan 12 lengths at Chepstow in the race Franhoek and Katchit won on their way here.
So, although Far West would prefer it soft, the race seems to add up to a nap. If only Vasco Du Ronceray wasn’t in it. ‘Vasco’ romped home 32 lengths at Hereford, beating ‘nothing’ and trainer Nicky Henderson regarded the form as ‘suspicious.’
The trouble is that the Etonian who skived off ‘school’ to watch Arkle hasn’t lost his mischief and could well be pulling our legs. I shall rightly or wrongly assume that he’s making the market for Far West but it could be a battle up the final hill.
1.20 Cheltenham Comply Or Die (Grand National) and Albertas Run (Ryanair) both won this, and I was thinking either one of Sire Collonges and Sea Of Thunder could be that class.
Then I saw the plunge on goes-well-fresh Our Father, now splitting them in the betting, though I note that Boylesport and Ladbrokes kept the Irish ‘Thunder’ cramped at 7-2 when you could get 7.0 on BETDAQ.
The Daq affords you that 7.0 despite a fabulous 101% ‘book’ of offers, though the conditions of the race bring Sire Collonges and Sea Of Thunder together after they were separated just two lengths over CD at the October meeting.
Too close for me to call but it seems that, whichever horse you choose – Our Father or not – you are in punters’ heaven!
1.55 Cheltenham Only one horse has lugged more than 11st 6lb in this to win up the final hill: 7-10 had 10st 10lb or less in the saddle. Just one favourite has scored but all others in the decade were shorter than 10-1 at SP.
This is a quality race, with 11 runners fitting the stats’ lofty requirements of a class-2 win at least, over 3m at least. Yet, again, the BETDAQ offers are punter-friendly at a probability total of only 106%. Don’t wait for SP, which has returned 118, 117, 117 in the last three seasons.
I said I was ‘wild about Harry’ The Viking in my horses-to-follow list, and he’s heading the market at 7.2, as I write. The runner-up in the Cheltenham four-miler, he could have most to fear from Galaxy Rock, bidding for back-to-back wins (Carruthers third to him last season) and Bradley, who has weight turnarounds with Ashkazar and ‘Galaxy.’
Like Ashkazar, the Sandown Gold Cup winner Poker De Sivola wins his races after the turn of the year and after several runs. Teaforthree (worse off with Harry The Viking) also seems to want an outing or two and the stable thinks they need to claim off him here.
Problema Tic goes well fresh, is just six years old, and ‘could be anything’ at this stage (several bookies go 13-2 but I could get 9.8 on BETDAQ). However, David Pipe is less than enthusiastic in the trade paper (‘we hope he can be competitive’).
I shall, therefore, have a pound on Viking Blond (12.0), best handicapped in the race and said by his yard to have had his confidence restored: ‘Twiston’ has won this with a lightweight (2003) and can never be left out of staying events.
So it’s an all-Viking finish, a pair of them: I can’t remember who won between Kirk Douglas and Tony Curtis but, if they both lose here, I hope some of you will save my skin, jump up and say ‘I’m Spartacus!’ (Or was that another movie).
2.35 Cheltenham (Paddy Power Gold Cup) See Daqman’s horse-by-horse stats preview on Thursday in the Daqman Archive.
Yes, I could get 9.4 Walkon this morning, despite his being the equal of Grands Crus (3.35 favourite) in the ratings and despite a bullish trainer, Alan King, confirming that his charge goes really well fresh.
Walkon was fifth to Grands Crus’ fourth (a neck difference) when they met at levels in the RSA, and the handicapper may have made a huge error, dropping the King horse 5lb after his failure in the Scottish National.
But only the Pipe yard this decade has been able to break the 11st 2lb barrier for winners of the Paddy Power: like Nicholls for Al Ferof, they claim they have a better horse this year.
Walkon and Nadiya De La Vega came out as stats good things in my Thursday preview but, despite a kind word from trainer Nicky Henderson, the mare’s having won a key race for this, and her being a treat of a price in BETDAQ offers, ‘Vega’ remains easy to back this morning, in fact out to 19.5 as I write.
Tony McCoy chose her of the Henderson trio but not until late in the day. Barry Geraghty has sweated to ride Triolo d’Alene (but still may have to put up overweight), leaving last year’s runner-up Quantitativeeasing out in the cold. At least ‘Quantity’ is their guide to quality.
Hunt Ball was kicked by the handicapper – 15lb for winning at Cheltenham – but he was grossly flattered by that race, with the next eight horses home all failing to win in a total of 19 appearances since. No wonder he made it look easy. Place lay.
3.05 Cheltenham: What a race, with the King-Nicholls-Pipe trio all around 6.2 or 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning. Lovcen and The Milanhorse will need to be special to give a stone and more to Pipe’s Goulanes, who stays longer than the mother-in-law.
VERDICT: Both Grands Crus and Walkon have been let into the Paddy Power by the handicapper. Ruby Walsh has prophecied a good day today, and I hope his winners are Far West and Harry The Viking. Goulanes must take his chance to meet quality horses off a low mark before attempting Graded contests at level weights. A hard day for a nap but I’ll either go far, or I’ll go West in the opener!
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 11pts win (nap) FAR WEST (12.45 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: DAQ VALUE BET: 4.8pts win HARRY THE VIKING and 2.7pts win VIKING BLOND (1.55 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: DAQ VALUE BET 13pts win GRANDS CRUS and 3.5pts win WALKON (2.35 Cheltenham)
BET 3.5ps win GOULANES (3.05 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Harry The Viking (1.55 Cheltenham), Grands Crus (2.35 Cheltenham)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by stake). Jackpot bets, however, are to win 30 points or more. A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
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