33.0 and 21.0 ‘MASSIVE’ AND ‘TASTY’ BECHER CHANCES: Daqman can’t get enough of you generous BETDAQ layers this morning. He reckons your offers are ‘massive’ and ‘tasty’ for one of the day’s main courses, the Becher Chase.
TREBLE CHANCE ON DAQ MULTIPLES: But his gourmet bet is a hot treble chance in the big novice chase and the Tingle Creek at Sandown, made up by a McCoy-ridden nap at Wetherby. So prices large and small.. but value only on BETDAQ.
A word to the price-wise: don’t be fooled by the bookies’ morning line. While the trade paper featured a 108% book on the Becher Chase this morning, I was gleaning in the BETDAQ orange where offers totted up to a similar level.
But it had all gone tight with the bookies by then: in particular, the four quotes of 7-1 Join Together were wiped to 5-1 and 11-2 in the Oddschecker update at 8.05 a.m.
1.55 Sandown (Henry V111 Novices’ Chase) Paul Nicholls is 1321 in this in the last four years, with three winners since 2003, including the star-quality Al Ferof last year.
However, for me, it’s not Nicholls but Henderson who has the potential champion here in Captain Conan and he can strike first blood before their Tringle Creek showdown of Sanctuaire and Sprinter Sacre.
A Cheltenham winner, even as dashing as the bold Captain, is not always effective on a flatter track like Sandown, albeit with a hill-climb finish, but this boy won a novice hurdle at the Esher venue and is my first leg of a confident Saturday treble chance.
2.10 Liverpool (Becher Chase) The handicapper has given West End Rocker a chance here. Though he incurred a 12lb penalty for winning the race in 2011, he is down half a stone for his subsequent failures including a modest run back a month ago.
Big Fella Thanks has also been eased a few pounds: ignore his form on park tracks, and you should reckon him for finishing three times in the first seven in the Grand National; this trip will suit him better, while the fences hold no fears.
In Compliance and Hello Bud also like these big jumps. Any Currency, Poker De Sivola and Gullible Gordon all need better ground. Ballabriggs has required a run back four times out of five: he is well forward this season but also wants a sounder surface.
With any other trainer but Paul Nicholls, Join Together would be deemed too inexperienced for this, with just half a dozen chase runs on his CV. The stats say that a candidate for this massive run over the (today modified) Grand National jumps is not solid without at least 13 races over fences but Nicholls scored with Eurotrek and Silver Birch after six each and Mr Pointment with only four.
Join Together has remained an in-and-out performer, despite a wind operation, and Nicholls today admits that he needs to bounce back.
Midnight Haze is massive this morning at 33.0 on BETDAQ. He got round in the Grand National only a month after a good sixth in the Cheltenham Cross-Country. He would have been a force in either race at today’s trip and Kim Bailey’s yard is having a great season.
Fabulu has also jumped these fences well before, likes the ground and is tasty at 21.0 for the McCain stable, which knows how to win at Aintree but rarely has one this low in the handicap.
2.30 Sandown It’s rare for any winner to be older than eight, as rare as a winning favourite (both are 1-10). Into Wain for Steve ‘Local Hero’ Gollings, the Louth trainer, and Softsong, for Philip Hobbs from where the summer has long since set, are at the essential low end of the handicap in a punter-friendly 107% list of offers on BETDAQ, as I write.
Ifandbutwhynot has had a pretty vicious hike in the handicap (that’s why not) and Petit Robin is best caught fresh; he’ll remember his winning run back (so will we; we were on!)
3.05 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase) See Archive: Daqman on the Tingle Creek, launched on Thursday.
We have the clash of the big-two two-milers and the battle of the big-two trainers here but not the top two jockeys: Ruby Walsh has the stage at Sandown but Tony McCoy is in the wings at Wetherby though, whereas Sprinter Sacre is my ‘best horse of the day’, McCoy’s American Legend (1.15) is my ‘best bet of the day’, napped because much favoured by the step up in trip at Wetherby yet 3.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
The layers won’t be so generous about Sprinter Sacre but, by doubling him with American Legend, I could effectively increase American Legend’s price to 4.3 this morning. Both have to win, of course.
3.20 Liverpool (Grand Sefton Chase) Four of the last five winners have started 10-1 to 18-1. None was out of the handicap; none carried 11st 12lb. That leaves only four runners, the meat in that sandwich of negative stats but it’s tight in the market, with five horses separated by only 1.8 points.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 9pts win (nap) AMERICAN LEGEND (1.15 Wetherby)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: DAQ VALUE BETS: 1.5pts win and place FABALU and 1pt win and place MIDNIGHT HAZE (2.10 Aintree)
BET 4pts win SOFTSONG and 2.2pts win INTO WAIN (2.30 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and a 3pt win treble AMERICAN LEGEND (1.15 Wetherby), CAPTAIN CONAN (1.55 Sandown) and SPRINTER SACRE (3.05 Sandown)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). This does not apply to Daq Multiples or jackpot bets where the target is a bigger return.
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