‘OSCARA’ NOMINATED FOR THE BIG PICTURE: Daqman dares lay two hot favourites at Warwick today. His Lanzarote bets at Kempton include Oscara Dara but also a punt on a 15.0 outsider and his Warwick nap was 9.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
ASAID IT WOULD BE FIRST OR SECOND! Seconditis for Daqman’s naps have them propping up his four-timer of wins like two ends of a bookshelf. His current eight-day sequence is 22WWWW22, after Asaid (2nd 7-2) was the gamble of his race at Huntingdon from 9-2 on course and 6.0 on BETDAQ.
Did you wake up to the BETDAQ bonus? The two feature races at Kempton (2.05 and 2.40), subject of a bookies’ steal at SP last year, were trading to a total of 108% and 111% on the exchange by around 7 o’clock (108% and 107% by 9 a.m.).
Compare that with the ‘Total SP’ recorded in the results for those races at the corresponding meeting last year of 120% and 126%, respectively.
In the Lanzarote Hurdle (2.40), the trade paper list of fixed odds this morning had bookmakers betting at 117%, but only if you could take ‘best prices’ by contacting up to nine different firms.
In fact, at 7 a.m., Oddschecker revealed that two of the five firms listed as 5-1 Bears Affair had cut their prices; the 6-1 Black Thunder had all gone; the 15-2 Oscara Dara was now 11-2, 6s in a place; and the Buck Magic 12-1 put up by Pricewise was 8-1 and only 7s in a place.
Where were those ‘best prices’ now? The bookies’ answer is always ‘when a horse is trimmed, another is pushed out in the market’. Not on your life. I was having trouble just trying to match last year’s take-out (SP) at ‘best prices’ by 7.30.
12.40 and 1.50 Warwick, 3.15 Kempton: Denis O’Regan is at Warwick for one ride over jumps, the handicap debut of Harris Garden (12.40), unfancied in his novice hurdles, so overlooked in a 110% list of BETDAQ offers at 16.0 this morning.
I hope we’ll see the continuing rise and rise of one of my horses to follow, Highland Lodge (1.50 race with 107% list of offers), but this is a real test for him, with the current ratings (adjusted to 11st) Rocky Creek 138, Highland Lodge 133, Fill The Power and Forgotten Gold 130, and Tour Des Champs not out of it.
Fill The Power is a massive 9.6, when you consider that he failed by only half a length to give two stone to Handtheprizeover at Doncaster recently.
Handtheprizeover is favourite as I write for the class-2 handicap chase (3.15 Kempton) in a market which adds up to 104% in the BETDAQ orange.
2.25 Warwick Only one winner in its seven-year history carried above 10st 12lb; only one older than nine. An interesting ride is Gavin Sheehan for Duke Of Monmouth.
Sheehan won a decent handicap for Charlie Mann last Saturday and is handed this one in preference to Victor Leudorum for the same trainer in the Lanzarote.
Duke Of Monmouth was favourite at Haydock to beat Alpha Victor and Ely Brown but faded on the heavy ground. He’s again the shortest price of the three in a 110% list in the BETDAQ orange for a race with a ‘Total SP’ of 122% a year ago.
Ely Brown was second in this event that day off 120 and was 10lb higher when third to Alpha Victor.
Tony McCoy has his work cut out on the penalised Storm Survivor, who has resisted vigorous riding in the past, and may prefer to be on stablemate Holywell if only he could get off the McManus beast. He’ll also be keeping an eye on his potential Grand National mount, Sunnyhillboy.
Though he’s on a much better hurdles mark than when chasing, I can’t have another National horse, The Package, to win his first hurdle since breaking his maiden more than five years ago. At age 10, he looks vulnerable to improvers like De La Bech.
2.40 Kempton (Lanzarote Hurdle) Since there was a step up in trip from 2m to 2m 5f in 2007, only stats for the last five renewals are relevant.
Six-year-olds have won four times out of five, with just one taking the race with more than 10st 11lb in the saddle.
The ratings line up with that (123–137, which is sub-11st on today’s card), though one of the five scored off 144, carrying 11st 2lb on good-to-soft ground.
Be warned that exactly half the field – nine of the 18 – is being claimed off (a boy rider won it in 2007), as trainers try to ease the handicapper’s burden on the soft ground.
Of the conditionals involved, Thomas Garner and Peter Hatton (though two from four over hurdles at Kempton) have failed to land a winner this year so far. Hatton is without success in the entire season; amateur-rider Cheesman’s had one winner; Kavanagh 2.
Buck Magic’s Cheltenham success the last day was in a conditionals-only race, and they are always suspect. He has been with several different trainers – two in Ireland, and three in England: Pat Rodford, Kieran Burke and now Neil Mulholland – so is not my idea of a safe bet.
Harry Derham tries to do what Ruby Walsh couldn’t the last twice: he failed to get Black Thunder home, including when favourite over today’s CD. Captain Sunshine seems to have gone backwards since he ran Black Thunder to a neck 13 months ago.
Lamb Or Cod, who was behind Black Thunder at Haydock, has had a breathing op since then but still wears a tongue-tie today. Worrying.
Bear’s Affair has been hit 12lb by the handicapper for his Aintree success last month, which gives him a difficult task, 25lb worse off for around five lengths with Oscar Prairie over CD.
Oscar Prairie seemed to return to form at Wincanton the last day, using different waiting tactics; he’s usually up with the pace, or leading his field, and Nicky Henderson may have a better chance than Bear’s Affair with Oscara Dara.
That one was fourth to Darlan at the Aintree Festival and the horse he beat at Punchestown when following up (Malt Master) scored at Huntingdon yesterday.
Despite his age, Araldur (15.0 on BETFDAQ as I write but only 9-1 with Ladbrokes and Hills on that Oddschecker list) must come into it: he loves a righthand track.
His form over hurdles since the beginning of 2011 is 222111, and he was immediately back to winning ways over the sticks the last day after 21 months’ chasing. Black Thunder and Oscara Dara are the dangers.
3.00 Warwick Four out of six favourites have won this and, in the last two years, solid form – with ratings already of 135 and 139 – has been required.
Revised to 11st each, The New One has 136, Dursey Sound 135 and Mickie 133. Collateral form says there’s very little between the front two, who are giving weight to Mickie, a huge 12.0 ON BETDAQ with trainer Henry Daly hitting form with two winners this week.
If the handicapper is right, she is on the up: Mickie was 17 lengths behind Hold Court in October but is rated a pound in front of him now, and gets the 7lb mares’ allowance, too.
3.35 Warwick Pete The Feat is heading for defeat! Up in trip, up in grade and up in the weights, yet favourite in a big field. Can’t be right.
Rigadin De Beauchene (a super 7.2 on BETDAQ) was the ‘moral’ when second at Lingfield, giving a stone to the winner Well Refreshed, who went on to take the Sussex National but 28 lengths.
Similarly, Bradley (7.2 as I write) was beaten only a neck at Cheltenham last month, giving 12lb to Monbeg Dude, who won the Welsh National last week.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 1.3pts win and place HARRIS GARDEN (12.40 Warwick)
BET 2.3pts win (nap) FILL THE POWER (1.50 Warwick)
LAY 10pts THE PACKAGE, and BET 2.9pts win DE LA BECH and 2.7pts win HOLYWELL (2.25 Warwick)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5.5pts win BLACK THUNDER, 4.8pts win OSCARA DARA and 2.1pts win ARALDUR (2.40 Kempton)
BET 1.8pts win and place MICKIE (3.00 Warwick)
LAY 10pts PETE THE FEAT, and WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.8pts win on each BRADLEY and RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (3.35 Warwick)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: HIGHLAND LODGE (1.50 Warwick)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points (so you can work out the Betdaq offer he took by dividing 20 by the stake). But jackpot bets will have a higher target, as stated (example ‘win 30’) and horses to follow are to level stakes.
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