230-1 DERBY-NATIONAL DOUBLE BID BY DAQMAN: Daring Daqman goes for outsiders in today’s Irish Derby at The Curragh and Summer National at Uttoxeter. His biggest return from mixed doubles would be around 230-1.
FOUR WINNING DAYS OUT OF FOUR: He needs 35 points to scoop 100 points profit in five days and meet his promise to win 20 a day for the launch of his new staking plan. He edged only a small profit from its first Saturday.
NOW IT’S 62 POINTS PROFIT: With Red Cadeaux (WON 7-2) one of his very first 35-point scorers and a 10-point lay on Flambeau (only 10th of 12 at 4-1 favourite) he took his total to 65.43 for the four days.
The Rubbing House became Heartbreak Hotel for me at Epsom. I drowned my sorrows after Carlton House’s Disaster Derby in the only pub in the world on a racecourse, the locals call the Downs Hotel.
The Queen’s colt knocked himself in the week before the race, appeared on the course bandaged and sweating, took such a wide berth at Tattenham Corner, he almost became one of the horses on the merry-go-round, and then – as he challenged Treasure Beach to win it – he lost a shoe and Pour Moi came riding by like the Gay Hussar, jockey stood up in his stirrups, waving his sword, sorry his whip.
What with Heartbreak Hotel and the Gay Hussar, you may think this column has a musical theme today, and you’d be right or, at least, there are old tunes turning in my head, inspired by Memphis Tennessee.
3.50 The Curragh (The Irish Derby) Sunday Morning’s Coming Down and It’s Now Or Never for Carlton House but something tells me that, though they were fourth and fifth at Epsom, Native Khan and Memphis Tennessee will enjoy The Curragh better than the Epsom one-two will.
I say ‘something’ tells me; in fact, Johnny Murtagh has been telling the world of his confidence for The Curragh in Native Khan. Maybe he’s right.
If we believe another jockey, Christophe Soumillon, Seville was unbalanced on the Epsom track and may also do better at The Curragh, though he’s unlikely to beat Carlton House on Dante as well as Derby form.
Treasure Beach had won the Chester Vase, form boosted by the runner-up, Nathaniel, when he took the ‘Ascot Derby’, the Kind Edward V11 Stakes.
But ‘Memphis’ set a power pace at Epsom and lost second place only on the final climb; I feel that a different ride could produce a different result. Remember, he was beaten only about two lengths at the finish.
In fact, this Curragh Derby is as tightly rated as I’ve ever seen a Classic: 119 Treasure Beach and Roderic O’Connor, 118, Carlton House, 117 Memphis Tennessee, 116 Native Khan, 115 Seville.
This suggests, as I’m inferring with Memphis Tennessee, that a change of tactics could make all the difference, with – according to these ratings – only four lengths or so separating half a dozen horses, which is more like a sprint than a Classic!
A change of tactics, and a change of circumstances, would surely most benefit Carlton House and Memphis Tennessee, with Treasure Beach the obvious danger. ‘Memphis’ is a massively ‘wrong’ price at 11.5 as I write. Carlton House is too short for an outright win bet; those ratings make his odds around 9-2.
4.20 Uttoxeter (The Summer National): From Derby to ‘National’, with last year’s one-two returning off similar marks but in different circumstances: both had won in the Spring last term.
This time Emma Lavelle, going for a hat-trick in the race, brings her 2010 scorer, Ouzbeck, out fresh, and the head runner-up that day, Brooklyn Brownie, is also without recent success, though his stable is in form.
Other trainers ticking over with summer-surface winners are Peter Bowen (Mizen Raven and Ballyvesey), Charlie Longsdon (Commemoration Day), Jonjo O’Neill (Sea Wall) and Jamie Snowden (Knighton Combe).
Both previous winners were young horses – single figure age – which had won class-2 or class-3 handicaps, and were carrying 11st 3lb to 11st 6lb, which suggests that the two Irish challengers are well placed for victory.
The Last Derby (10.5 on Betdaq this morning) was sixth in the Irish National, and second to the smart Mossey Joe last time out, while Gonebeyondrecall was a one-paced fourth of 30 in the Topham Trophy at Aintree.
Grand Slam Hero and Simply Smashing would be topical tips. Of the two recent winners heading the market, I prefer Keenan’s Future, who keeps his form well, whereas Dom D’Orgeval has a poor overall strike rate, though his Uttoxeter form is 121.
However, on 2009 running of this race, when they were second and third, Keenan’s Future is held by The King Of Angels (offered at 20.0, as I write). A recent Point winner and Andrew Thornton has been booked.
BET (to win 20): 2.6pts win FOXHAVEN (3.25 Windsor) if lose, 5pts win NORMAN ORPEN (4.35 Windsor).
WIN-35 JACKPOT: BET (to win 35pts) 3.3pts win and place MEMPHIS TENNESSEE and 5pts win (saver) CARLTON HOUSE (3.50 The Curragh)
WIN-35 JACKPOTS: BET (to win 35pts) 3.6pts win THE LAST DERBY and 1.8pts win and place THE KING OF ANGELS (4.20 Uttoxeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES (Derby and National): 4 x 1pt win doubles Memphis Tennessee and Carlton House (3.50 The Curragh) with The Last Derby and The King Of Angels (4.20 Uttoxeter). Also 1pt win double Foxhaven (3.25) and Norman Orpen (4.35) at Windsor.