THE 24.0 LINCOLN DREAM: Daqman names the pick of the outsiders to get on your side for Saturday’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster at 24.0 and 19.0. Both have trialed in Meydan.
CLASSICS WATCH: The Betdaq Guineas list rings one alarm bell and, for major contenders, offers big value alongside the bookmakers’ fixed odds.
What do these Lincoln hopes have in common? Man Of Action, Start Right, Field Of Dream, Lowther and Primaeval. One of them could be Saturday’s big winner.
This nap hand have all raced at Meydan during the winter. Of the five, Lowther is an unwanted dog on a raft (45.0 on Betdaq), and the Godolphin pair – Man Of Action and Start Right – are short enough, and won’t take any more money until the day (maybe not even then); the Saeed Bin Suroor horses seldom do.
The two that remain are interesting: Jamie Osborne got half a stone knocked off Field Of Dream last season, then brought him back at Meydan (on turf) in January, where he wasn’t fancied by the yard to do anything in particular that day but, at 25-1, ran a cracker, fading only in the final furlong.
James Fanshawe’s not a man to make many mistakes and, when the money has been down on Primaeval, the six-year-old has finished – as favourite each time – 130412.
In case the cash goes on again, I’m taking 19.0 Primaeval, who is 11-1 with William Hill, and 24.0 Field Of Dream. Primaeval is 4lb better off for threeparts of a length with Edinburgh Knight on October form at Ascot, yet Edinburgh Knight is almost half Primaeval’s price at 11.0.
Last year in October, before the end of the season, I gave you a lucky seven to follow for this year’s Classics, though I warned you then that it was nothing more than a coconut shy.
Winter Guineas and Derby betting has always been a meal ticket for the bookies. Here’s how they look in the markets today.
COLTS: Born To Sea The half-brother to Sea The Stars showed a brilliant turn of foot in the Blenheim in September, but the ground was said to be softer than ideal when this final foal of Arc De Triomphe winner, Urban Sea – dam of the prolific sire Galileo – was beaten in a Group 3 seven weeks later.
Goes straight to the Guineas. If you want to get on early, forget the 10-1 with Hills; he’s 18.0 on Betdaq, as I write. And 19.5 for the Derby.
Camelot Impressive Racing Post Trophy winner but then so were the subsequent flops in their year Crowded House, St Nicholas Abbey and Casamento.
Ballydoyle fans won’t be heaping on for the Guineas; Camelot is a Derby horse, but the 2-1 and 5-2 for Epsom with most bookmakers is bad value.
Harbour Watch Had Caspar Netscher behind in the Richmond Stakes before that one went on to a Gimcrack and Mill Reef double, but he sustained a leg injury before the Dewhurst.
Under a cloud again this Spring and a lonely dog on a raft, out to an alarming 94.0 on Betdaq for the Guineas, though 8-1 with Power and 10-1 with Hills and Boylesport.
Parish Hall Good ground is the key to Parish Hall. It enabled him to land the Dewhurst, a race his trainer Jim Bolger had farmed before with Teofilo and New Approach.
The trainer knows Camelot: he ran Zip Top behind him in the Racing Post Trophy. A huge 18.5 for the Derby in the shadow of Camelot (16-1 with bookmakers).
Dabirsim No news yet of the 30,000-euros bargain who completed a sensational Prix Morny and Grand Criterium double, landing the Criterium (now called the Jean-Luc Lagardere) as Frankie Dettori’s 500th Group-race winner.
FILLIES: Discourse Another one for Dettori. Discourse cruised clear in the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket in August but a minor injury kept her out of the autumn juvenile-fillies’ ‘Classics’. Not for me at 8.0 for the 1,000 Guineas until I see her in a trial.
Maybe: If this one shows the same or better form than last year, she will take the beating in the 1,000, but she is very short at 3.65.
The Galileo filly had La Collina five lengths behind in the Moyglare and that one turned over Coventry Stakes winning colt Power. Like Camelot, in the hands of Aidan O’Brien.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.2pts win (nap) MOUNTAINOUS (4.30 Ffos Las)
BET 8.6pts win ED DE GAS and 4.5pts (stakes saver) KOKO LOCA (4.40 Wolverhampton)
LAY to win 10pts PETER ANDERS and BET 10pts win DARTFORD (7.55 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.6pts win PRIMAEVAL and 1.3pts win FIELD OF DREAM (Lincoln Handicap, Saturday)
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