WORLD RECORD BID OR HOW THE BOOKIES HAVE PASSED THE BUCK: Daqman spots punter-friendly betting on the BETDAQ exchange today, as Big Buck’s attempts his world record 17 in a row over jumps.
SPOT THE AINTREE VALUE: Such is the value on the exchange that one list of offers this morning added up to 100% and he spotted others at 103 (twice), 104 and 106%, compared with bookmaker SPs on the same day last year of 120, 125 and even 129% overround.
Big Buck’s has the world at his feet. In the age of Denman and Kauto Star, he will be the one remembered by posterity if he takes a record 17th consecutive jumps prize in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree this afternoon.
2.00 Aintree (Liverpool Hurdle): Only one five-year-old has won this in 25 years but Smad Place is ‘the one most likely to’ – I don’t mean win; I mean get second to Big Buck’s – if the ratings are to be believed.
There seems nothing to foil a Big Buck’s four-timer, only Smad Place to stop a Ditcheat monopoly of the prizemoney, as Poungach and Tidal Bay bid for a Nicholls’ clean-sweep, and only BETDAQ to give you fair play in the race.
It may be merely academic but BETDAQ offers were 39.0 bar two for an almost dead-on 100% ‘book’ of offers when most bookmakers had five horses quoted 25-1 or less in their fixed odds. The words ‘stark’ and ‘contrast’ spring to mind.
2.30 Aintree (4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle): Detroit City, Katchit and Binocular, winners successively of this race, suggest that today’s winner must go in your notebook for Cheltenham 2013.
They were contained in a string of six winning favourites in seven seasons, interrupted by a 40-1 scorer who never won another hurdle. Zarkandar won at odds on last year; like Detroit City and Katchit, he came on from winning at Cheltenham.
In fact, six of the last seven winners were first or second in the Triumph Hurdle: this year, we’ve got the first, third, fourth and sixth from the Triumph, Countrywide Flame, Grumeti, Dodging Bullets and Sadler’s Risk, and the unlucky horse of the race, Pearl Swan (fell last).
There was nothing to choose in the market between four of those five at 8 a.m. this morning and of course there was no sign of the Pricewise 40-1 Gottany O’s at 8 a.m, but 14-1 in a place and mainly 16-1 with some 18s.
So you takes your pick; no value, excepting the general view of the market, which was that BETDAQ were as low as 104% around that time. That at least makes the market user-friendly.
The same applies to three other races, showing 103% (twice) and 106% as I write. Last year’s SPs on the same card added up to 129, 125, 120, 116, 114, 111 and 110%.
The edge in this juvenile hurdle was to back Countrywide Flame at 6.4, since everyone expects the losers at Cheltenham to turn around and beat him on today’s flat track, but he drew right away from them in the Triumph.
We know that Grumeti is 8-9lb in front of Dodging Bullets on a flat track (Kempton in February) and we know that Grumeti and Pearl Swan are ‘the same horse’ on their dead-heat at Cheltenham earlier. When two horses are that close together you oppose them; and what do you oppose them with? The one that beat them at the festival, of course.
3.05 Aintree Bowl: A bad race for favourite backers; only one has obliged in the last decade, with seven tastily priced between 7-2 and 12-1 at SP.
Alan King says he’s been wanting to run Medermit over 3m for some time; he chooses to do so against seven distance winners, including CD scorer Burton Port, the Gold Cup fourth, who swerves the Grand National for this.
But Burton Port, who won at Aintree as a novice, is himself swerved by Barry Geraghty, who prefers the favourite, Ryanair winner, Riverside Theatre.
Medermit, beaten three lengths by Riverside Theatre in his prep race, but who closed him down to a length at Cheltenham, could overturn the form, and the 2.3 points better on BETDAQ at 6.8 suggests he is value to do so.
Hunt Ball made it seven wins out for eight this term by scoring at Cheltenham but, as the ratings reveal, he has to improve another 16lb and 12lb respectively on Riverside Theatre and Burton Port, a quite different proposition to Medermit’s having to make up a length.. yet they are the same price as I write!
3.40 Aintree (Fox Hunters’ Chase) If you can’t distinguish between this Fox Hunters’ Chase and the Foxhunter at Cheltenham, you’ve got it all wrong: no horse has gone from one to the other in the same season nor even been placed in the nine years since Torduff Express was third at Cheltenham in 2002.
The big difference? Today’s National fences. You need something that you know will jump them: Silver Adonis, a previous winner; Cloudy Lane, who’s been round three times in the National itself; Gwanako, a Topham winner; or last year’s Fox Hunters’ runner-up, Boxer Georg.
There’s one more with good form at Aintree: one-time Becher Chase runner-up Keenan’s Future, a massive price at 39.0 this morning, alongside the 18-1 offered by Coral or even the general 25-1.
He comes alive over these fences but the question mark is whether this stayer will arrive on the scene soon enough.
4.15 Aintree (Red Rum Chase): The top two would have to be as good as Fota Island (2005), the only one in the decade to have carried a big weight. This is borne out by the last three winning ratings of 135, 141 and 139, which suggests that today’s renewal is between the bottom five.
Don’t be afraid of a big price. Fota Island was also the last favourite to win it: 25-1, 20-1, 10-1 and 9-1 have been among the scorers since.
Paul Nicholls saddles two but he’s sent out 15 losers of this in the last 10 years, whereas Alan King has had a winner and two placed from three runners.
King’s Kumbeshwar, second in last season’s Fred Winter, was third in the Grand Annual this time around at Cheltenham.
Silk Drum has changed stables since winning this race last year but was back to form last time out and is 5lb lower than he carried in 2011.
The problem with the Pricewise pick, Free World, is that he gets behind and that makes life difficult at Aintree. I’d prefer local horse Tara Royal (18.5 on BETDAQ as I write), who returned to form racing with the pace at Musselburgh.
He was a long way behind Tanks For That and Kumbeshwar in the undulating hell-for-leather of Cheltenham but could be a different proposition on this flat track. Ran well here over a mile further in a hurdle, last race on this very card.
4.50 Aintree (Manifesto Chase): The year Czar Nicholas of Russia issued his Manifesto for General Peace (1899), Manifesto won the National and General Peace the Lincoln. There’s never been a coincidence bet like that one!
Maybe Killyglen goes with Brae Hill this year but it’s too late now. Al Ferof to the next race..
5.25 Aintree: There have been no winners of this in the decade with more than 11st 1llb in the saddle. Jonjo O’Neill has won it four times since 2002.
Add those together and you get Palace Jester, another 18.5 offer on BETDAQ as another who failed at Cheltenham (Pertemps Final).
Paul Townend is over from Ireland for one ride on the opening day, Shoegazer, which has 20.0 offers this morning. Good value in value lists: that’s all the successful punter needs.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win COUNTRYSIDE FLAME (2.30 Aintree)
BET 3.4pts win MEDERMIT (nap, 3.05 Aintree)
BET 5pts win GWANAKO and 0.5pts win and place KEENAN’S FUTURE (3.40 Aintree)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.7pts win and place TARA ROYAL (4.15 Aintree)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.7pts win PALACE JESTER and 1.5pts win SHOEGAZER (5.25 Aintree)
DAQ YANKEE: Big Buck’s (2.00 Aintree), Countryside Flame (2.30 Aintree), Medermit (3.05 Aintree) and Al Ferof (4.50 Aintree)
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