WELSH NATIONAL: GENTLEMEN, PREFER BLOND! Viking Blond is the winner of this Saturday’s Welsh Grand National, if the stats are anything to go by. He fits every condition, ABCDEF. The key is:
A: The last 16 winners have all been aged from six to nine
B: The race has been run on officially ‘heavy’ ground eight times in 25 years: all eight winners carried 10st 13lb or less
C: Six of those eight were rated 131 to 143. Five of the last nine winners were rated 131 to 142.
D: 10 out of 10 recent winners had won a chase over 3m or more
E: 10 out of 10 had run in the last 55 days
F: French-bred horses recently have a 50% win-and-place strike-rate.
ABCDEF VIKING BLOND Came to prominence in his very first chase, which was at Chepstow 14 months ago, beating Alfie Spinner, but overfaced at six and seven, and failed to complete in Grand National and Sandown Gold Cup and when favourite for this race last year.
Bounced back with fine placed effort at Cheltenham in November, third to Monbeg Dude. ‘The softer the better’ for this French-bred, says veteran trainer of marathon winners, Nigel Twiston-Davies.
ABCDE ALFIE SPINNER Winner and second in two chases at Chepstow, and this Reynoldstown third ran a fine fifth in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.
Filled that place again behind Roberto Goldback in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot in November. Form on soft or heavy since debut: 110421.
ABCDE UNIVERSAL SOLDIER Chepstow winner over hurdles but pulled up in novice-chase there on heavy. Seventh in 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham and excellent second on seasonal debut to Quartz De Thaix ay Haydock (soft) in November.
ABCEF KATENKO Heavy and ‘very soft’ ground winner five times in France, made English debut over hurdles and stayed on well over fences in Silver Cup at Ascot (3m heavy) a fortnight ago. Dam is by Villez, sire of Voy Por Ustedes and stayer Le Duc, third in the Arkle.
ABCEF ROYAL CHARM Another French-bred, four out of five in his younger days, two of them on heavy. Best runs over fences, third in Manifesto at Aintree and third again last time out over 3m (heavy) at Chepstow.
ABDEF HARQUET Ordinary form in France and class-4 chaser in England until attempting higher level recently, staying on fourth at Chepstow (3m good to soft) and winner of Cumberland Chase at Carlisle (3m 2f heavy).
ABDE MONBEG DUDE Very lightly raced, raised his game from an ordinary level to win 3m 3f plus chase at Cheltenham in November (soft) in only fifth run over fences: Viking Blond third, Teaforthree and Mon Mome behind.
ABDE OUR ISLAND Sixth in the last running of this race on heavy (Giles Cross second) and winner as a novice in similar conditions. Third in Devon marathon (4m heavy) last month in first-time visors.
ACE SOLL Very lightly raced – only five runs under Rules – and never out of first two in Ireland, including heavy-ground win and second over fences. Brought down NH Chase Chelternham and eighth (Teaforthree sixth) in Hennessy Gold Cup last month.
ADEF QUARTZ DE THAI Form on heavy: 1212. Solid start to chasing career and fancied for Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham (seventh on good ground). Returned to hurdles until back-to-back wins over fences at Bangor and Haydock (3m soft), where he beat Universal Soldier.
Second to Master Overseer, trying to give 13lb, at Cheltenham only three weeks ago (3m 1.5f heavy), but up 17lb for those three races.
ADE ACROSS THE BAY Third to Big Buck’s in Liverpool Hurdle, and back-to-back chase wins in the autumn (up to 3m 2f, both on heavy). Gutsy second back at Aintree in Listed chase last time. Up 18lb for those three races.
ADE TEAFORTHREE Three novice-chase wins in a row, still standing, including win at Chepstow on heavy and success in 4m National Hunt Chase (good) at Cheltenham Festival. Fair runs back behind Monbeg Dude and in the Hennessy.
BCDEF MON MOME Only eighth in this race as a youngster (2008), but 2009 Grand National winner and third in 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Has been dropped 13lb since being pulled up in last year’s National.
BCDE Jadanli, Major Malarkey, Master Overseer; BDE Arbor Supreme, Cool Operator, Incentivise, Sona Sasta, Triggerman; DF Michel Le Bon; D Giles Cross.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 5pts win PETITE GEORGIA (1.50 Lingfield)
DAQ VALUE: BET 10pts win HIDDON COIN (2.35 Wolverhampton)
DAQ VALUE: BET 12pts win ILLUSTRIOUS FOREST (3.05 Wolverhampton)
DAQ VALUE: BET 10pts win (nap) SAFFRON TOWN (3.30 Ayr)
* Daqman’s bets today are all staked to win 20 points at the offers available at the time of selection. All were in a value list of offers with a total probability of around 106%.
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