TENOR GIVES VOICE TO BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman made just short of 10 points profit yesterday, thanks to Tenor Nivernais (WON 7-2 from 8.3 on Betdaq), easy winner by five lengths and 17 at Carlisle and now headed for the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
Facts speak louder than words. For all Paul Nicholls ‘no need to panic’ calmer over the Ditcheat coughing scare, his current record says otherwise.
The champion trainer has had just one winner from 31 starters in the last fortnight, badly missing strike with eight placed without winning.
On a blank Saturday, completing the defeat of four consecutive favourites, some of Nicholls’ contenders came home with coughs and runny noses and went on the antibiotics and thus on the easy list for four or five days.
With Cheltenham just three weeks away, for any of his Festival hopes to catch it and miss four or five days work would be absolutely crucial, and all eyes are on Nicholls at Taunton today, where he is leading trainer with almost treble the total of his nearest rival.
Punters will be particularly interested in the running of Dualla Lord (2.00), in a race – the opener – in which Ditcheat’s score is three out of three.
Their early-doors response was to back Nick Williams’ Urbain De Sivola in to odds on, with Dualla Lord easy to back and little else for the remainder, except Ifyouletmefinish, whose yard has also dropped out of form.
Urbain De Sivola looked good in a juvenile event at Newbury but faces older horses today and, at 12-1 bar the three with question marks, I fancy a long shot each way.
Getting 5lb and 7lb from the principals, the mare Definite Memories, at 16.0 on Betdaq, ‘could be anything’ after a Points romp over a subsequent winner.
In the handicap hurdle (3.40), the red warning flag flies over all three of the forecast favourites, Sire De Grugy, Dare Me and Nicholls’ Edgardo Sol.
Sire De Grugy looks hot after running a big-race field close (he was fourth) on Friday but trainer Gary Moore is 0-21 and returning the horse to battle four days later looks a bit desperate to my eyes.
Dare Me is saddled by Philip Hobbs, who is 0-24, missing strike with seven placed, no winners, and also with the worry beads out pre-Cheltenham.
So, as the Nicholls drifts like a dog on a raft, I’m again tempted to try an outsider. Or I thought I was! In the blink of an eye, as I flicked up my Daq tab, I saw Devil To Pay coming to join the front of the market at 7.4 for a trainer in form, Alan King.
Devil To Pay has to improve to win this but, with age on his side and courage among his assets, he has had a run back and is more than a stone and a half lower in weight, though not in rating, from his winning Fontwell performance last Spring.
Another trainer I warned you about when Pricewise tipped him at the weekend is Nigel Twiston Davies. He is currently 1-25 yet his Sherwani Wolf (2.10) seems sure to start favourite at Wetherby.
The Wolf’s November second to Invictus, who won for us on Saturday, now looks good and the drop back in trip should suit.
But, with the cloud over the yard, I shall take the 6.8 O Crotaigh, whose only defeat in three starts was by Red Tanber, winner of three races since, and my bet is back in novice company today.
In the handicap chase (3.15), we have a novice, Loose Performer, giving weight to a Graded-chase third, Strongbows Legend, who is likely to try to make all the running.
Hopeful Start is up in class and up a stone, so a bigger danger may be Alderluck, who usually wins at this time of year (January 1 win, February 1, March 2).
The snag with opposing trainers out of form, or under a coughing cloud, is that – as all their horses drift on that lonely raft down to the betting weir – something is going to escape the stable bugs and sluice home at a huge price.
There comes a time when a drifter becomes value. And, as I put the mouse to sleep, and brew up the coffee, I see that Edgardo Sol at Taunton has slumped to a massive 10.0, almost double his forecast odds. Gotta ‘leave a pound’ on it!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.3pts win and place DEFINITE MEMORIES (2.00 Taunton)
BET 3.4pts win O CROTAIGH (2.10 Wetherby)
BET 4.1pts win STRONGBOWS LEGEND and 3.8pts win ALDERLUCK (3.15 Wetherby)
BET 3.1pts win DEVIL TO PAY and 2.2pts win EDGARDO SOL (3.40 Taunton)
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