‘KID’ BETDAQ VALUE FOR HAYDOCK SPRINT: Daqman presents his ABC guide to Saturday’s Haydock Sprint Cup, matching the stats to the leading contenders and finding 16.5 value on BETDAQ (no kidding). Here are the stats he worked from:
A: AGE: Horses aged three and four have won 35 times in its 45-year history.
B: FORM: 8 out of the last 10 had won Group 1, 2, 3 or had been Group 2 placed.
C: RATING: Recent winners have come from a very tight official-ratings parameter: 111 to 116 (7 out of 9)
Wizz Kid is the Haydock wild card. Though she was only 10-1 with Corals, I grabbed 16.5 on BETDAQ last night for Saturday’s big race. You need that bit of extra value with the going uncertain at this stage.
Wizz Kid has won two Group-2 events at Chantilly on the soft though I don’t think drying ground would worry trainer Robert Collet too much on the evidence of Ascot last backend.
ABC Wizz Kid The only runner to fill all the stats criteria for Saturday’s big race, Wizz Kid was fifth, beaten little more than a length in the Abbaye in October, then came to Ascot with Collet concerned on two fronts.
Firstly, were the intervening 13 days long enough for the Kid to get over her exertions at Longchamp; secondly, would the good, fast ground at Ascot for the British Champions Sprint be a factor against his Whipper filly.
In the event, the time of the race – fast by 0.45secs – suggests that her second to Deacon Blues (landing his fifth win in a row) was hot stuff.
Wizz Kid has won in Group 2 again this year but there was also a lot to like about her recent Group-1 second to the flying Moonlight Cloud over 7f, that one having got within a head of Black Caviar at Royal Ascot.
AB Mayson Emerged from handicaps and Listed success for a magnificent Abernant and Palace House Stakes double in the Spring, both with cut in the ground.
The York May meeting came too soon – he was unruly in the stalls and didn’t run his race – and his next run at Newcastle was disappointing, seemingly because of the deep mud.
But those who deserted him rued the day when he stepped up a good 9lb on anything he’d previously achieved by taking the July Cup, also on heavy, at 20-1, with Society Rock third, Ortensia fourth and Hawkeyethenoo fifth.
AB Strong Suit Only eighth in the July Cup behind Mayson and Co, which was his first attempt at 6f since his two-year-old days when he won the Coventry and ran second in both the Phoenix Stakes and the Middle Park.
He’s reached the frame only once this term when, returning to 7f in the Hungerford Stakes, he seemed victim of a rare error by Richard Huighes when asked to challenge too late. Will need a strong pace at this 6f and will need to keep up with it.
A Gordon Lord Byron Another who has emerged from the handicap ranks and another who might prefer a bit of cut.
Suddenly hit the big time in August with a narrow defeat by the July Cup seventh Fire Lily in a Group 3, so that the 7f York Listed a fortnight later was easy meat for him. Needs to improve again but that is highly likely.
A Reply You could say that the Ballydoyle representative has hardly had a race this year. If you ignore his warm-up seasonal debut, you find he was chopped off twice and shuffled right back in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, well supported at 11-2.
Then, suggesting that some of that trouble was his own making, he was visored for the July Cup but raced alone on the far rail and was eased right down when his chance had gone. At 36.0, fool’s gold or what?
BC Kingsgate Native Haydock is an old hunting ground (form figures there 1420 include win and second, both on firmish ground) but not raced since only 10th in this event last year: needs to bounce back and ‘do a Borderlescott’’ but goes well fresh.
BC Hitchens This one-time handicapper won a Group 3 at The Curragh last year and another one at Meydan in the Spring. Only fourth in the same Curragh race but rested after and back to form in August, winning a Listed despite carrying the Meydan Group-3 penalty.
BC Ortensia Disappointed at Royal Ascot and then only fourth in the July Cup on heavy but the Aussie mare found wings at Goodwood and York.
She proved in a different league in the King George at Goodwood (Group 2) but it was her tremendous late surge to win the Nunthorpe that really caught the eye, snatching this Group 1 with a thundering run on the rails from a seemingly impossible position.
BC Soul Ex-Aussie but not in the same league as Black Caviar, Ortensia and Little Bridge. Group-3 Newbury win in July was on heavy but a Meydan handicap win in the Spring was on firm.
B Bated Breath Has been a ‘nearly horse’ since his Temple Stakes win on Saturday’s course (5f Group 2, firm) in May. In front of Ortensia at Royal Ascot but pipped by another Aussie, Little Bridge.
‘Bated’ followers swallowed hard but held their breath and plunged again in the Nunthorpe, but it was Ortensia who improved past them with Bated Breath only sixth.
B Society Rock Another ‘nearly horse’: second to Bated Beath, second to Moonlight Cloud, fifth to Black Caviar, third to Mayson, all since winning the 2011 Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot on the soft. Clearly needs others to underperform.
C Dandy Boy Another with ground to make up on Ortensia and Mayson on recent form at Newmarket and York, attempting Group 1s after a handicap success (the Wokingham) at Royal Ascot.
– Hawkeyethenoo Bounced back to form for first win since the Spring of 2011 with a scintillating burst in the Stewards Cup but had been beaten by Dandy Boy in the Wokingham and his career best may have been his Group-1 July Cup fifth to Mayson
This much-loved Scottish warrior has risen from the ranks as a 51-rated class-6 winner at Beverley three years back to the dizzy heights of 108 after Goodwood and it would be fantastic to see him get in ‘the five’ as he did in that July Cup.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.7pts win KONSTANTIN, 1.9pts win AMAZING AMORAY and 1.2pts win GOOD AUTHORITY (2.30 Leicester)
BET 4.5pts win (nap) HEADLINE NEWS (4.15 Leicester)
BET 2.3pts win HURRICANE HIGGINS (4.40 Goodwood)
BET 4.5pts win MAGIC SECRET (5.15 Goodwood)
BET 1pt win and place DARK FALCON (5.20 Leicester)
LAY 10pts JABHAAT (5.50 Goodwood)
* Daqman’s win bets are staked to win 20 points, so divide 20 by his stake to arrive at the offer taken at the time of making the selection. Lays have a 10-point stake.
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