FINAL-DAY FLING NETS 33 POINTS: Daqman landed his banker and an 8-1 winner for a final-day flourish to the Jumps season which made around 33 points profit yesterday. His winners in time order were:
WON 5-2 MONTOYA‘S SON
WON 8-1 MR BURBIDGE
WON 1-1 SHANTOU VILLAGE (banker)
FOUR BANKERS UP OUT OF FIVE: That takes his current bankers sequence to four out of five. He’s already had seven bankers in a row in 2015 and 11 consecutive lays up (it’s all updated in the Daqman Library today).
HE’S 141-73 UP OVER PRICEWISE: Winners at 43-1, 33-1, 11-1, 10-1, 9-1 and 8-1 (twice) are now listed in Daqman’s Library CLICK HERE among recent Jumps successes in his third successive seasonal victory over Pricewise of the Racing Post. He now leads his rival 141-73 overall as follows:
DAQMAN 39, PRICEWISE 12 (NH season 2013-14)
DAQMAN 69, PRICEWISE 47 (Flat season 2014)
DAQMAN 33, PRICEWISE 14 (NH season 2014-15)
FLAT DAY FLUTTERS AT 30-1 AND 22-1: Daqman today picks horses at 31.0 and 23.0 in the Lincoln among his bets against Pricewise in the 2.35 Doncster, 3.10 Doncaster and the 3.45 Doncaster.
TAKE ‘CARLO’ AS THE LINCOLN PLOT HORSE
3.45 Doncaster (LINCOLN HANDICAP) Whatever some papers – and Marwan Koukash – say, the facts about the Lincoln draw are that only one winner since Doncaster reopened seven years ago has been drawn higher than 12 (none over 16). And three of the four soft-ground races in that time have gone to stalls 1 or 3.
Three of my top four in the ABC Guide (see Archive, Tuesday) have seemingly good draws on those stats, particularly with Hillybilly Boy (from 4) and Lincoln (9) likely to lead the low side from pace-chaser Emell (1).
There are no known leaders among the highest 10 stalls. So my order in, from draws 12, 7, 11 and 2 respectively, are as follows:
1 What About Carlo (BETDAQ 23.0) The Lincoln is usually fast run and this horse’s form suggests that he has the speed to win at a mile (took the Esher Cup at Sandown) and the stamina for further (10f scorer at Epsom), on both occasions ridden by today’s pilot, Jimmy Fortune.
He appeared to have lost his way after Eve Johnson Houghton had tried him at Group-2 level, but returned recently in the Winter Derby trial after being gelded as if prepping for this as his target.
2 Mange All (BETDAQ 7.6) Millions of words have been written about this one, and value in his offers has long gone.
But William Haggas loves to win this race and has made no secret of laying out Mange All for a fourth success, since the horse won over the straight mile at Ascot last July.
3 Baraweez (BETDAQ 31.0) Former Irish Champion Apprentice Chris Hayes, rarely seen in England, has been booked for this one by trainer Brian Ellison, whose Global Village was beaten a short-head in the 2013 Lincoln.
Progressive last season with two top wins and a near miss in three consecutive Irish handicaps after taking the prestigious Seaton Delaval at Newcastle (disqualified).
4 Belgian Bill Winning form in Meydan this year, his first success since 2013 Royal Hunt Cup, and older horses have a good record for a place in this. Pat Smullen booked.
I expect Gm Hopkins to win the far side from Zarwaan, Gabrial’s Kaka and Bronze Angel.
5 Gm Hopkins Won his first three races spread over last season, and hammered Mange All in the Silver Cambridgeshire, so another who gets further.
Trainer John Gosden has been in good form on AW over the winter, but this is a test for the high draw, as the four-year-old will have to come from 21 and, if it goes against him, I shall be looking to take him out of the race for the Newbury Spring Cup.
The dark horses this year are Mondialiste and Zarwaan (gelded over the winter), while jockey claims off Ocean Tempest and Gabrial’s Kaka put them in with a fighting chance.
‘FINISHED ARTICLE’ ASTAIRE CAN DANCE IN
1.25 Doncaster (Brocklesby) I much preferred it before they messed with the race order and demoted the apprentices’ race. But, since they’ve also messed with the maximum field-size, the boys are in a split race (4.50 and 5.25), so it wouldn’t have been the same.
There are still apprentices in the opener, claiming off three of the Brocklesby runners, including Rupert Boy and Teversham, which are not bred for this minimum trip.
We can assume that Just That Lord (Bill Turner has won this umpteen times) has been prepared for the race.
2.00 Doncaster Mile Penitent won this in 2012, two years after he took the Lincoln Handicap, which he swerves today, leaving the big ‘un to stablemate Mondialiste.
Theoretically, Tullius, whose stable is in form, can run 7lb below his Pattern-race mark (won the Group-2 Sandown Mile last Spring) and still win. Results when fresh: 11102.
But he’s seven now and has won only once since August, 2012 while Baltic Knight is not the most reliable individual, and represents handicap form.
It’s hard to be on side with Glory Awaits, who has to carry a Group-2 penalty for success at that level in Turkey. So Penitent, though now nine, has a squeak: 14.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.35 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) Dinkum Diamond won this last year and will have been ‘got up’ for a repeat, though the third home that day, Jack Dexter, is 5lb better off and rain would be a big boost for him and for Aetna, who beat Jack over CD in the mud of last autumn.
The edge on age is with the four-year-old Astaire, Gimcrack and Middle Park winner at two, who was backed to be champion sprinter last year but was never really strong enough to get to grips with the power pair, Sole Power and Slade Power.
But Astaire is the finished article now, according to connections, and he did start his 2014 season well – narrowly edged out in the Duke Of York on soft – and, in fact, has never been beaten over 6f after a break.
Justice Day and Naadirr are expected to make it a fair dinkum pace, but I expect Astaire to dance by in the final furlong. He must take this before the big guns reappear.
3.10 Doncaster (Spring Mile) I’ve stood by the stats in the Lincoln but drainage work over the winter (it’s an annual event at Doncaster!) could change any draw bias, and this race could tell us how.
You also have to be wary in the Lincoln of a Pattern horse in disguise. That could apply to any one of the four-year-olds, as here to a lesser extent with a lightly-raced sort like Certificate, whose trainer has already won this with one that climbed to Listed level.
Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight Spring Miles but usually from high in the handicap, with some quality already established.
Certificate has languished in class 4 to date, albeit gelded since, but Chatez – switched from hurdling – has already won a class-2, the Haydock Silver Bowl from Lincoln hope Zarwaan.
Halation, in form from AW, and lightly-raced Indy could both improve and Donny Rover would be a topical tip. But, at the offers in the orange, Chatez is a crazy price at 16.5, drawn 8.
If you could rely on his fitness, the claimed-off Cambridgeshire fourth Buckstay has a nice weight from the one stall. He was well backed this morning and it’s just the sort of deal his quirky stable can hand out.
3.45 Doncaster (Lincoln handicap, see above)
ROMSDAL MY FIRST BANKER OF THE SEASON
2.15 Kempton (Magnolia Stakes) Here’s an unusual clash of Derby third and fifth, Romsdal and Red Galileo, from stables which both have strong Lincoln candidates.
Stranger still, both horses have appeared once on Polytrack, both winners here at Kempton Park.
That Romsdal is bred to appreciate the surface, and that he won here last April, suggests that place and time are right for him to resume his superiority over his old Epsom rival.
2.50 Kempton (Rosebery Handicap) Stalls 1 to 8 have won this four years out of five but any draw bias amounts to this: there must be a strong gallop for the hold-up horses.
Since Fire Fighting, Noble Gift and Trip To Paris are the potential pace-setters from stalls 1, 3, 7, and four-year-olds have a massive advantage on the stats (six wins in nine seasons), I shall follow the money for New Year’s Night (stall 2).
He’s been rising through the ranks but, if his run is stopped, it might be down to Rebellious Guest, one of those who got mugged by Tryster on the last day.
But I’m worried about the trip for him; worried about the weight and time of year for Fire Fighting; worried about the quality of Latin Charm’s winning races.
So I’ve ended up with a bit of 12.0 offer Trip To Paris, assuming, as I’ve said, that he’s on the right side but that there’s enough pace from others to hold him up just behind the leaders. An Ascot winner at 1m 4f.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 2.2pts win PENITENT (2.00 Doncaster)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win ROMSDAL (2.15 Kempton)
BET 10pts win ASTAIRE (2.35 Doncaster)
BET 7.5pts win NEW YEAR’S NIGHT and 2.7pts win TRIP TO PARIS (2.50 Kempton)
BET 3pts win BUCKSTAY, and 2pts win and place CHATEZ (3.10 Doncaster)
TON-UP BETS (win 100): 4.5pts win and place WHAT ABOUT CARLO and 3.3pts win and place BARAWEEZ, with 2.3pts win (stakes saver) MANGE ALL (3.45 Doncaster)
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