10 WINNERS FOR 97 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman, who scored with five winners on Thursday, hit five more past the layers yesterday to bring his total profit to 97 points in the two days at SP, much more at BETDAQ morning offers (Example: Uranna won at 7-2 from 6.6 on the exchange).
THURSDAY: His Thursday quintet, which included a 6-1 winner, gave him five straight win bets, as follows:
WON 6-1 DEFINITE FUTURE
WON 9-2 WARRIORS TALE
WON 7-2 STRAWBERRY HILL
WON 14-5 GLINGERBURN
WON 9-4 CLOUD CREEPER (nap)
FRIDAY: His Friday five, one at 5-1, landed him two singles & a treble for 20 points to add to Thursday’s 77:
WON 5-1 NO DUFFER
WON 7-2 URANNA
WON 6-5 COWARDS CLOSE
WON 8-11 CLEAN SHEET
WON 1-3 BIDOUREY
SATURDAY: Daqman goes into Saturday with winning sequences in his lays (11), bankers (7) and value bets:
Bankers: 1111111
Lays: 11111111111
Daqman 17, Pricewise 9 (overall 125-68). Today: 2.55 Haydock, 3.15 Ascot.
MOUNTAINOUS IN GRAND FORM FOR TRIAL
1.45 Haydock (Victor Ludorum) Recent winners not a patch on the good old bad old days, when this race launched such as the mighty Persian War, three-times Champion Hurdle winner.
Today looks like a stroll in the (Haydock) park for Top Notch, which would do his Triumph Hurdle hopes no harm (15.0 on BETDAQ this morning). Four from four over hurdles and odds on here.
2.20 Haydock (Rendlesham Hurdle) A World Hurdle second and two fourths is the best this race has done since it produced the fabulous French-trained shark Baracouda (2002), who gobbled up 18 wins, 10 consecutively for J P McManus.
I couldn’t back At Fishers Cross for the World at Cheltenham! He was third in the race last year but hasn’t scored since April 2013, doesn’t always jump fluently, doesn’t always find any foot, a heart-breaker.
It’s a race for trades. Milansbar, Closing Ceremony and Seeyouatmidnight (absent nearly a year) all like to hare off in front, and it could set the race up for Land Of Vic, who has abundant stamina and came from an impossible position when placed in a Grade-2 at Ascot on the last day: 6.4 for an early position.
2.55 Haydock (Grand National Trial) I previewed this on Wednesday as a no-no test for Aintree (though you never know-know). I pointed out that the last three winners have been 11 times pulled up from 14 subsequent starts.
That includes last year’s ‘hero’, Rigadin De Beauchene. This p-p-plonker’s only going day in two years was this race last season, and his form ‘figures’ are PP1PP-P. Gas Line Boy (P11P) and Loch Ba (P01P) are similarly unp-p-predictable.
The race did have a result in 2012 when the subsequent National winner, Neptune Collonges, was second for Paul Nicholls, who now runs Benvolio, superbly consistent when put alongside those in-and-out horses I’ve mentioned.
But that’s the point. Does Benvolio – form figures of 11113242 still standing – want any more ‘lead’ in the saddle for Aintree (weights out on Wednesday)? He’s already likely to top 11st off his 145.
Same warning here. Only two horses in today’s trial have carried more than 11st to victory in the last decade, though Benvolio’s Welsh Grand National second, beaten a whisker by last year’s runner-up in this, Emperor’s Choice, puts him right in the firing line, albeit badly in now with the fourth horse, Monbeg Dude (third in today’s race off 6lb lower in 2013).
Benbens was a long way behind, fifth, at Chepstow and subsequently seemed more at home, dropped back to 25f on today’s course, second in the Peter Marsh.
The Peter Marsh winner, Samstown, is now up two stone on his rating at this time last year, More likely to last the trip is CD winner in November, Gas Line Boy, who was also beating Emperor’s Choice that day.
He was hiked 10lb though the handicapper has relented and cut that by half since he pulled up in the Welsh National.
Trustan Times was third in the Scottish National last Spring. His nothing form since is eroding his rating, but his stable is missing strike badly.
The yard has had no winners since November and a string of horses have recently been placed without winning (among them Hawk High, beaten by Glingerburn).
Trustan Times has no chance with Benvolio on course form today but, if he can shed another couple of pounds, he’ll be a good thing back at Ayr in the Spring.
Lie Forrit is consistent but hasn’t put back-to-back wins together for six years now, and his only chase wins in the last three years have been in veterans’ races.
Broadway Buffalo’s winning form is at 3m but he’s unexposed as a seven-year-old, and jumped well when he won the Tommy Whittle on this course.
Mountainous ran a good prep for the Welsh National in the trial in December but the 2012 winner of the Chepstow marathon pecked badly at an early fence and was knocked out of his stride in the real thing over Christmas, at a time when his stable wasn’t firing. He’s back on his winning mark today with Richard Lee in peak form.
DAQMAN’S ORDER-IN: 1 Mountainous (19.5 on BETDAQ this morning) 2 Broadway Buffalo (7.8), 3 Benvolio (7.6)
DIAMOND KING CAN GET HIS SPARKLE BACK
1.30 Ascot Tea For Two was beaten favourite last time he was seen in such a small field (hasn’t got the tactical speed for it), and the one he beat in the Lanzarote, Little Boy Boru was slaughtered 30 lengths by Paul Nicholl’s Silsol on the last day.
The same stable’s Arpege d’Alene, half-brother to Triolo d’Alene, drops from an early Grade-1 attempt back to his comfort zone on his winning track, and should show his progress here.
2.05 Ascot (Reynoldstown Chase) Winners of this read like a who’s-who of top chasers in the last 20 years from One Man through to Albertas Run and O’Faolains Boy, both subsequent winners of the RSA at Cheltenham. Bobs Worth, like Many Clouds last year, was only second.
The race has dropped two or three runners this year, with the lowest ratings on show since 2009 but Albertas Run was only a 136 in his year at this stage, which is behind three of today’s quartet.
There has been just one five-year-old winner, since my records began with the ill-fated Killiney and the wonderful Brown Lad (1973 and 75).
So the Pipe faithfuls-to-the-last are asking a lot of Ainsi Fideles and are in the dark a bit here. He’s been front-running over shorter but is likely to be asked for some restraint over the longer trip today.
Virak was happy in a small field when beating Deputy Dan in the autumn and success here would boost Coneygree, who slammed him 40 lengths and more at Kempton.
2.40 Ascot Neil Mullholland, who runs Miknella Present with Ruby Walsh up in the next, has bagged another jockey star, Barry Geraghty, for Carole’s Destrier, giving weight to older horses at only seven but a sound jumper and better than the bare form.
His run at Cheltenham on the last day, dropped in trip, suggests he’s gearing up for the JLT at Cheltenham but is 164.0 on BETDAQ this morning, three times what the bookmakers offer. Are you a believer?
3.15 Ascot Check out the lighter weights; nothing has won above 10st 7b for four seasons now, as it’s a real lung-buster round this track over this trip. Just the one winning favourite in the decade.
Minstrels Gallery is making good progress, while Minella Present and Diamond King (after a break) both pulled hard on the last day, and could do better if settling here.
For me, Diamond King is the one to be on, value at 7.6 on BETDAQ this morning. Always regarded as a stayer, but fast enough to win two-milers. Could have taken up easier races at Carlisle and Taunton in the next three days.
Unique De Cotte has a featherweight but has won only a modest conditionals’ race, disappointing 12 days’ later but, like Rolling Star, goes best fresh.
3.50 Ascot Chase This, among all the racing today, is your best trial for the big festivals to come: Monet’s Garden, Kauto Star, Voy Por Ustedes, Riverside Theatre, Cue Card.. who can join them on the roll of honour?
Ma Filleule, in both Gold Cup and Ryanair, was runner-up to Holywell at the festival last March, which looks good now. And she is helped by the mare’s allowance here.
Willie Mullins’ Ballycasey will need rain all day to be the equaliser (he has 9lb to find with Balder Success on the ratings).
Balder Succes doesn’t have a run but a long galloping trajectory, and it’s up to Sam Twiston-Davies to position Ptit Zig for the pounce.
Snag with moving in on Ptit Zig is that he’s really deputising for the injured Al Ferof and is only a novice at this stage, albeit one of the best.
Tricky stuff, with 1.6 points covering four horses in the BETDAQ market, but Ma Filleule’s 7lb weight advantage could be the decider.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless otherwise stated).
BET 10pts win (nap) ARPEGE D’ALENE (1.30 Ascot)
BET 5.5pts win LAND OF VIC (2.20 Haydock)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50pts): 7.3pts win BROADWAY BUFFALO, and 2.7pts win and place MOUNTAINOUS (2.55 Haydock)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50pts): 7.5pts win DIAMOND KING (3.15 Ascot)
BET 5pts win MA FILLEULE (3.50 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee ARPEGE D’ALENE (1.30 Ascot), TOP NOTCH (1.45 Haydock), VIRAK (2.05 Ascot), CAROLE’S DESTRIER (2.40 Ascot)
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