38.0 & 60.0 IN CAMBRIDGESHIRE SEVEN: It’s a Newmarket day that brings in the new, with three top two-year-old trials worth a couple of bankers, but it’s also a day for having a flutter in the first big autumn handicap, the Cambridgeshire. Daqman’s lucky seven for the race includes 60.0 and 38.0 offers this morning.
CHECK THEM OUT IN DAQMAN COLUMN: Here they are at 8.30 this morning (Betdaq offer on the left; shortest bookie price in brackets). Now match the quotes to the horses named in Daqman’s column. They are revealed in the same order at the end of his big-race analysis.
10.0 Big Royal Ascot gamble (6-1)
13.0 The invincible hero? (8-1)
15.0 Long-term planning (10-1)
16.5 Connections unbeatable (10-1)
29.0 Trainer’s last chance (18-1)
38.0 Top of the ABC Guide (28-1)
60.0 Hidden Horse (33-1)
HILLS SET FOR BIG HANDICAP WIN BY NAFAQA
3.50 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire): Barry Hills came in with a big handicap winner- Frankincense (1968 Lincoln) when he was assistant to John Oxley – and he could go out with one.
Hills has already retired once (in 2011) but came back to take charge of the late John Hills set-up before handing over to a new man at the end of this season.
Until his very last day at the Kingswood Stables, he’s still the Mr Shrewdie of Lambourn for my money. And I do mean for my money: he’s kept a Sunday joint on my table for many a year.
His three-year-old Nafaqa is unexposed with only nine starts to his name. Runner-up in the Royal Lodge Stakes at this time last year to a subsequent Derby favourite, Elm Park.
More Group races – second in the Craven Stakes; fourth in the Dante – then a holiday after Royal Ascot until prepping for today (first time gelded) at the Doncaster St Leger meeting.
It was a slow-run small-field tactical affair that day, and this three-year-old would much prefer to be buried in a big field and show his stamina from a fast-run race.
I believe that stamina (proven ability at around 1m 2f) is the key to this, since so many of today’s field are 7f horses or milers.
My ABC Guide (Wednesday in the Archive) had another on top with a shrewdie trainer, one proven at 10f, in David Elsworth’s Master The World, who scored at that trip under 9st 11lb at Newmarket in the summer.
Sir Michael Stoute is a Classic trainer but also a shrewdie with handicappers, and he’s worked hard with Abseil (stall 32) to straighten him out, with the long-term plan a major late-season handicap.
It’s best to be drawn either side, in the low seven or 20 and over. Nafaqa is in 24 and Master The World comes out of stall one.
Another high drawn that I like is Portage (out of gate 28), my second unexposed three-year-old: failed to land a gamble down to 7-1 in the Britannia at Royal Ascot (interfered with) but redeemed himself on the course in July and then ran second in the Irish Cambridgeshire.
Dragon Fei (stall 9) is a ‘hidden horse’. The mare was second to Ribblesdale winner, Curvy, in the Spring – giving her a stone – and was brought back after three months’ holiday in a Group-3, with a view to an autumn campaign.
I fancied Earth Drummer but David O’Meara has been out of form recently, and I shall complete analysis of the field with two top straight-course horses: Royal Hunt Cup winner Gm Hopkins and Bronze Angel.
Gm Hopkins could squeeze some extra from his first-time hood, with John Gosden and Frankie Dettori absolutely unbeatable yesterday. Bronze Angel, twice winner of this, is trying to ‘do a Treve’ as the invincible hero.
I’ve ‘stolen’ the best jockeys for my seven – Frankie Dettori, Silvestre De Sousa, William Buick, Paul Hanagan, Ryan Moore – and I’m hoping to trap a winner and a place.
Here’s the same list that you saw at the top of the page, but this time with the names that correspond to the BETDAQ offers (bookie shortest prices at right are from Oddschecker at 8.30 a.m.):
10.0 Portage (6-1)
13.0 Bronze Angel (8-1)
15.0 Abseil (10-1)
16.5 Gm Hopkins (10-1)
29.0 Nafaqa (18-1)
38.0 Master the World (28-1)
60.0 Dragon Fei (33-1)
My bets are four to match the same number in Pricewise. His ante-post tip is a non-runner; mine was Master The World in my ABC Guide. The score between us is Daqman 87, Pricewise 14 after Promising Run (WON 5-1) yesterday.
SANUS FORM GIVES DEAUVILLE BANKER STATUS
2.00 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes) Second of the big four two-year-old trials at Newmarket this week, the first of them, the Rockfel, won by Godolphin yesterday with Promising Run.
Frankel (2010) restored some of the lost glamour of this once-great race, which went to Derby heroes St Paddy, Shirley Heights and Benny The Dip.
My Hot Spot (Daqman Tuesday Archive) was Foundation, which I said was likely to be facing the pick of Aidan O’Brien’s entries, which turns out to be Deauville.
A cracking 102% BETDAQ market could hardly split them this morning. I have to.
My verdict has to be that Deauville’s form was enhanced on Thursday by Sanus per Aquam and that he’s shown a vital trait for a performer in the Pattern: he’s won on heavy and on good to firm.
2.35 Newmarket, Saturday (Cheveley Park Stakes) Two winners of this (2007 and 2009) went on to take the following year’s 1,000 Guineas.
My Hot Spot on Tuesday was Illuminate, pointing out that Aidan O’Brien, whose Alice Springs is his sole representative, has never won this race.
Illuminate has to overcome the Lowther Stakes one-two, Besharah and Lumiere, but she has already beaten Besharah and is on a four-timer here.
MORE GOLD FOR SHALAA IN THE MIDDLE PARK
3.10 Newmarket, Saturday (Middle Park Stakes) Shalaa was my Tuesday Hot Spot for this over Ajaya, winner of the Gimcrack from the subsequent Mill Reef hero.
Shalaa has the same task today – to beat Ajaya, with 10.5 bar two – so I shall invest Gold Banker status on the John Gosden star.
FLAT PREP SPELLS BIG CHANCE FOR ALPHABET
2.15 Market Rasen ‘Rasen’ already has top-class summer jumps handicaps. Now this tasty double of autumnal Listeds is launched today. As they all progress, we should see betting opportunities from form that links the two meetings, since this is an unusual track that not all horses can cope with.
There was nothing much between Gran Maestro and Manhattan Swing as they beat each other last September and then over today’s CD in the Summer Hurdle here (Laudatory fourth).
But Manhattan Swing loses on the roundabouts, punished 7lb for winning over the same Rasen CD last month, even though the race was two grades lower.
Laudatory comes out best at the weights from that Summer Hurdle, and he is also reweighted in front of Broughton.
Broughton won a class 2 on the last day and is still lower than his mark during 2014 when he ran in the Triumph Hurdle, but Laudatory, has a pull of 7lb for only around a couple of lengths
It’s all straightforward form assessment until you get to Queen Alphabet and Swansea Mile, both young horses who improved in Ireland and seemingly have more to come.
Gran Maestro loves this track but I’ll also go for Queen Alphabet (8.4 on BETDAQ looked big). She won in fast time at Killarney in the summer and her recent run on the flat at Gowran will have set her up for this.
VIEW LINES UP GRAY HESSION AS A STONE BETTER
2.50 Market Rasen Claret Cloak (Emma Lavelle) and Cloud Creeper (Philip Hobbs) are from the successful stables of the last two years but only one previous winner has carried their weights, and big odds are the order of the day in this.
Claret Cloak was fourth, with Valco De Touzaine and Gold Futures in front of him, when they were in the frame behind Standing Ovation at Newton Abbot last month
Today’s top weight should improve for that but it’s hard to see him turning around 10 lengths on Valco De Touzaine.
The handicapper says that Cloud Creeper improved 32lb over fences last winter into Spring, and he’ll enjoy the good ground.
Edgardo Sol is prepping for the Old Roan Chase at Aintree next month. But a line through Owen Na View suggests that Gray Hession has improved a stone during the summer.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except the SP bankers)
BANKER: BET 20pts win DEAUVILLE (2.00 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win ILLUMINATE (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 6pts win GRAN MAESTRO and 4pts win QUEEN ALPHABET (2.15 Market Rasen)
BET 6.25pts win GRAY HESSION and 5.5pts win VALCO DE TOUZAINE (2.50 Market Rasen)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) SHALAA (3.10 Newmarket)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5pts win PORTAGE, 1.6pts win and place NAFAQA, 1.3pts win and place MASTER THE WORLD, 1pt win and place DRAGON FEI (3.50 Newmarket)
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