DAQMAN THE GRANDIOSO GOES FOR BULL: Nicky Henderson has given Paul Nicholls a thumping by cleverly placing Riverside Theatre (Daqman got it) and Oscar Whisky (Daqman didn’t) with low weights. Today our tipping ace rates Nicholls’ Grandioso as a bull’s-eye bet for big-race revenge.
HE’S 9-1 UP ON PRICEWISE: The race, the December Gold Cup, renamed after one of Nicholls’ top owners, features another old-firm battle – the battle of Britain’s top tipsters – with Daqman currently leading Pricewise 9-1.
IT’S THE DAY OF THE DOUBLE BANKER: Today he dares put maximum stakes on both The New One and Kings Palace, so that his total potential Saturday profits are up to 150 points.
12.10 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle Trial) The Nicholls-Henderson battle rages from race one. Nicholls is recently 121 in this but the last winner to go on and take the Triumph in March was Katchit for Alan King in 2006.
The Ditcheat runner, Vicenzo Mio, had better form in France than Henderson’s Kentucky Hyden and, at 3.7, is good value in an orange list totalling 102%, despite withdrawals.
12.40 Cheltenham In fact, this is usually a Nicholls meeting. Sam Winner won the opening hurdle in 2010. He would take Paul Nicholls’ score in this novice chase to 1111.
‘Sam’ was outgunned a month ago by Le Bec and Shutthefrontdoor but there’s seemingly nothing in it at the revised weights.
Shutthefrontdoor got 3m over hurdles and has an extra furlong here, as well as a weights pull, though trainer Jonjo O’Neill is negative, and reckons there is no improvement to come.
That hasn’t shut the door on the money for him this morning, as favourite over the improver Le Bec, with Sam Winner the easiest of the three to back. I’ll stick with Le Bec, who kept on finding more last time.
1.15 Cheltenham Last year’s winner, Shooters Wood, has form figures at Cheltenham still standing off 111 and Paul Nicholls is currently 101 in this race, so I’ll take 11.0 this morning as the best outsider of the day.
Nicky Henderson, who is 11012 still standing (overall 1F1P012F), has four runners. But no winner in the decade has carried more than 11st 7lb and 9 out of 10 were below the age of nine, stats which make life doubly difficult for his Petit Robin and French Opera.
Tanks For That was going well in the lead four out in this when he came down in 2011 but he is also now a double-figure age. Anquetta (he’s nine) has to be claimed off and is a lonely dog on a raft this morning, drifted over the betting weir to 27.0 on BETDAQ.
Eastlake seems a flat-track animal and Saved By John is a bridesmaid who hasn’t won the bouquet this term but nevertheless has risen up the weights.
1.50 Cheltenham (Bristol Novices’ Hurdle) The last time a seven-year-old won this was nine years ago but Saint Roque has had only 10 races in his life.
However, he and Milan Bound seem set to play second and third fiddles as Kings Palace calls the tune on his way to the Albert Bartlett in March. The forecast rain would make him unstoppable, as Saint Roque is ground dependant.
2.25 Cheltenham (Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup) The opening Daqman column of the week was headlined: Go with the ‘Flo’ in the December Gold Cup, taking 15.0 Salut Flo on BETDAQ.
In a 103% total-offers orange this morning, ’Flo’ was 9.2 to continue the David Pipe run of winning lightweights in big handicaps this season. Except that he’s no longer down the handicap, now that the race has cut up.
And the stats say that he’s too old. There has been only one winner in the decade over the age of seven, none carrying more than 11st 8lb and only one that hadn’t raced at Cheltenham before or won a class 1 or 2 event.
But ante-post betting has only one aim: to get a runner at a price which is much shorter on the day. We did it, to the effect that – counting Salut Flo as 15.0 not 9.2 – I now have an underround ‘book’.
The stats take out all bar Johns Spirit, Grandioso, Ma Filleule and Attaglance, with Attaglance so far falling 11lb short of his hurdles form over fences, with ominous racereaders’ reports of ‘mistake’, ‘not fluent’, ‘lost place’ and ‘struggling’ all black marks in his Racing Post form.
I replace him with Colour Squadron – though the stats don’t like him (won only his maiden) – because where Johns Spirit is Colour Squadron must be. In fact, at these weights, and allowing for his being hampered here a month ago, he should finish in front.
But, taking the Johns Spirit form line, Sew On Target should win, since he is 16lb better for just over four lengths in a race a month further back.
However, he’s a bit of a Sew-and-so to back, because he is too often placed only without winning – at this level – as a front or van runner who is vulnerable at the business end of the race. The same applies to Double Ross.
Another clue may be the lines through Easter Meteor who was in front in the Johns Spirit race two out, going well, and he comes out ‘the same horse’ as Cantlow and Grandioso on Newbury form at the revised weights.
The surprise packet could be Ma Filleule, a big grey mare who won chases in France, so was not qualified for the novice route in England, but has a high mark and no mare has won since 1964.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The snag with Salut Flo is that it’s his first run back after colic. The fault with Ma Filleule (like Sew On Target, too easy to back this morning) is that she hasn’t jumped a fence over here. The problem with Cantlow, Johns Spirit, Grandioso and Easter Meteor is that they seem ‘all of a heap’ at the revised weights.
But Cantlow and Easter Meteor have drifted badly this morning, leaving the improver Grandioso – too keen first run back – good value at 8.0 on a day celebrating family ownership in his stable.
I can only claim the usual 20 points target for Salut Flo, as I didn’t specify anything more on Monday. But I’ll take Grandioso to win 50 in the Ditcheat bull’s-eye bid on their celebration day.
3.00 Cheltenham (International Hurdle) Zarkandar put up a big performance as the ‘moral’ – giving 11lb, beaten five lengths – when Annie Power won at Ascot last month.
But The New One looked the uncrowned two-mile champion when romping away at Kempton in October yet was able to win five furlongs further at the Festival last March.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win 20, except the big race and the bankers)
BET 7.4pts win VICENZO MIO (12.10 Cheltenham)
BET 10pts win LE BEC (12.40 Cheltenham)
BET 2pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) SHOOTERS WOOD (1.15 Cheltenham)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) KINGS PALACE (1.50 Cheltenham)
BULL’S-EYE BET 7pts win GRANDIOSO (to win 50 points) and, ante-post earlier in the week, 1.4pts win SALUT FLO at 15.0 (to win 20) in the 2.25 Cheltenham.
BANKER: BET 20pts win THE NEW ONE (3.00 Cheltenham)
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