36.0 AND 32.0 FOR NATIONAL TREBLE: Mouse Morris isn’t the only one bidding for a Grand National hat-trick today! Daqman wishes Mouse well – ‘he has a squeak!’ – and thanks him for the Irish and Aintree wins at 34.0 and 50.0 on BETDAQ. Now Daqman attacks with two more outsiders at 36.0 and 32.0 in the Scottish version this afternoon in his personal bid to pick three National winners in a row.
TWO MORE NAPS AFTER 7-4 WINNER: With 237 points profit from 20 wins in three days, Daqman slowed down a bit yesterday but landed a nap and his fifth winning double, with his main bet of the day, Definitly Red (WON 7-4). He has a banker nap on the Flat and a nap over Jumps today. He’s now on:
Naps 1101
Lays 11111111×11
Daqman 10, Pricewise 4
NEXT WEEK: SEE HOW THEY WON: It’s a Classic! Next week, Daqman looks at the winners of the Guineas and asks: where did they come from? He traces their careers and matches them with this year’s fields for the 1,000 and 2.000.
36.0 PICK HAS A PRAYER IN SCOTS NATIONAL
4.10 Ayr (Scottish Grand National) The top and bottom of it is that the big weights are quality horses and they always look as if they oughta run well!
But we’ve just had the lesson of the Aintree National and they simply couldn’t hack it in the soft ground. Only one horse with more than 10st 9lb finished in the first eight; only three burdened with 11st or more were able to complete the course. Gold Cup and previous National winner Many Clouds trailed in last.
The Scottish version has been run on good (good to soft twice) for 16 years now with only three winners on 11st or more.
Strangely the last time the going was soft (1999) the first two carried 11st 10lb and 11st. Stats about horses make mock of men!
But we’re bigger bananas to ignore them. So, for my ABC guide (see yesterday’s column), I declared the odds so stacked against the top half of the handicap that searching for a bet among them was a fool’s errand.
Consider the case of Cause Of Causes, truly a wonder horse for this column, winning the NH Chase for us last year at 44.0 and the Kim Muir in March at 11.0.
But he’s fallen flat on his rump, caught between two stools, with so little weight at Aintree (the Kim Muir came too late to count) that he was balloted out and so much here that he will need to be a super horse to win.
He very nearly is. We have seen his superb finish on top of the ground at Cheltenham – he passed 17 horses from four fences out to win the Kim Muir – but he has run well in a big race on soft and has won on heavy.
The more rain the better for Willie Mullins’ Measureofmydreams, third in this year’s NH Chase (with Vicente fifth). He has only three chases on his CV, whereas the minimum to win today’s race is 10 (those stats again!) although the Cheltenham four-miler is often a turnkey event.
The Irish connection is against both Cause Of Causes and Measureofmydreams: there has been no Irish winner since 1869, but I think ‘Causes’ will run into the frame.
Ballyculla and A Good Skin are now weighted to close him right down but don’t have his finish.
I am convinced that others in their place in the handicap have much better chances of doing so. Tour Des Champs for sure on his storming win in the Sussex National.
Vyta Du Roc has a big run in hjim based on the evidence of his Reynoldstown defeat of subsequent NH Chase winner, Minella Rocco, but he’s another who is only seven and has had just four chase starts.
Alvarado missed the cut at Aintree but I think he’s a horse brought to life by the big Liverpool fences and may look one-paced here.
Heathfield has just bounced back to something like his Punchestown form (won over 3m 6f) and his trainer, too, is back in the winner’s enclosure.
The big galloper Highland Lodge may not be quite quick enough but should get into the six. Goodtoknow wants decent ground. Golden Chieftain can make mistakes (bad ones). So the one I like that has been overlooked is Midnight Prayer.
The former Warwick Classic and NH Chase winner was behind Cause of Causes in the Kim Muir when the ground was against him, but has been returning to form after a year off. Three 11-year-olds have won in seven years.
Trainer Alan King has had five horses in the first five since 2006 (finishing 52412), and Midnight Prayer’s forceful style is ideal for this race. He loves soft ground and is a solid each-way bet.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I already have 32.0 Tour Des Champs and need a place bet on him now at the morning 8.2, as well as win and place Midnight Prayer at 36.0 and a saver at 15.5 Cause Of Causes (I couldn’t face my Fates if I ignored him altogether).
ORDER IN: 1 Tour Des Champs, 2 Midnight Prayer, 3 Cause Of Causes, 4 Heathfield, 5 Measureofmydreams, 6 Vyta Du Roc
VIVALDO NAPPED FOR NICHOLLS REVEILLE
1.50 Ayr A trip too far in the Warwick Classic when, in any case, he was hampered, is the only blot on a fine start to Vivaldo Collonges’ jumping career.
Top weight, yes; but I’ll bank on the 3.55 on BETDAQ as value this morning when the second favourite hasn’t won a chase! P. Nicholls claws £25,000 back.
2.25 Ayr (Future Champion Novices’ Chase) An absolute cracker but with another one of this column’s favourite horses, Bristol de Mai, a standout on the ratings, 154 to Henryville’s 150.
Bristol De Mai gives 3lb to Henryville but there’s a question-mark about the ground for Harry Fry’s horse and he’s one of three in this who are also conceding the years.
As this race has gained momentum, there’s been no winner over the age of seven, nor should there be in a top novice event.
The threat to Bristol De Mai is Le Mercurey, outpaced on fast ground at Cheltenham but two lengths clear at the last in the Reynoldstown when third to Vyta Du Roc, who runs in the Scottish National, and Minella Rocco when went on to take the NH Chase
At the offers on BETDAQ, I’ll take the 10.5 Le Mercurey with an even-money saver Bristol de Mai. Another £25,000 for Nicholls?
CH’T CHITTY BANG ON TARGET FOR CHAMPION
3.00 Ayr (Scottish Champion Hurdle) The case for Cheltenham also-rans versus those who swerved the festival is just about equal but, again, I would steer clear of older horses; they had their turn last year, and five and six years olds usually win.
That puts Connetable (only four) out in the cold and he disappointed in the Triumph. The other Paul Nicholls runner, Some Plan, was fourth in The Ladbroke but down the field in the County Hurdle.
Ivan Grozny is the likely favourite to get one back for Willie Mullins after an eight-lengths win at Aintree but that was an amateurs’ race and he beat nothing well.
Stablemate Clondaw Warrior, winner of the Ascot Stakes on the Flat, was on the comeback trail when he won a Grade B at Fairyhouse last month. He’s always thereabouts whatever he tackles but, again, he’s nine now.
Sternrubin finished in front of Ivan Grozny at Cheltenhm but he in turn is badly in here with John Constable and Ch’Tibello on autumn form.
The lightly-raced Ch’Tibello – an 8.2 offer on BETDAQ as I write – had been a close second to Altior at Ascot, and Altior was the very easy winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The dangers to Ch’Tibello are more rain and Clondaw Warrior.
ANOTHER BECKETT GUINEAS PEARL AT 10.5
2.10 Chelmsford (John Porter Stakes) You’re not only asked to guess the fit Flat horses but also how they will cope with the switch from turf (Newbury abandoned) to Polytrack.
‘Thanks for saving the races’, they say. But they haven’t saved them; they’ve turnd them into something else.
Sound Of Freedom is the Group horse here and he goes well fresh. Dartmouth has yet to win first time but the stable is flying.
Thanks to a 102% overround in the BETDAQ orange, I can dutch them at 7.0 and 4.1
2.40 Chelmsford (Fred Darling Stakes) Not the Classic trial of old but Ralph Beckett (three wins out of six) always aims his Guineas horse at this as a target.
So layers are being brave to offer 10.5 Nassuvian Pearl, with 2.64 Besharah the obvious saver.
3.15 Chelmsford (Greenham Stakes) A pale shadow of the Greenham that has produced Frankel and Kingman. Log Out Island is a sprinter and so Tasleet looks a banker.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points except Chelmsford 20)
BET 11.5pts win (Jumps nap) VIVALDO COLLONGES (1.50 Ayr)
BET 6.8pts win DARTMOUTH and 3.5pts win SLOUND OF FREEDOM (2.20 Chelmsford)
BET 3pts win on each LE MERCUREY and (stakes saver) BRISTOL DE MAI (2.25 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place NASSUVIAN PEARL, and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) BESHARAH (2.40 Chelmsford)
BET 6.8pts win CLONDAW WARRIOR and 4pts win CH’TIBELLO (3.00 Ayr)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (Flat nap) TASLEET (3.15 Chelmsford)
TON-UP BET (win 100) 2.8pts win and place MIDNIGHT PRAYER; already ante-post pot-of-gold (wins 193.75) 6.45pts win TOUR DES CHAMPS; now add 6.45pts place at 8.2. Saver 1.27pts win and place CAUSE OF CAUSES (all 4.10 Ayr)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 3pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles VIVALDO COLLONGES (1.50 Ayr), with DARTMOUTH and SOUND OF FREEDOM (2.20 Chelmsford) and with TASLEET (3.15 Chelmsford)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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