TWO LAYS OUT OF TWO FOR DAQMAN: Daqman yesterday continued a frustrating run of places (like Danadana beaten a neck at 8-1) but opposing the favourites landed him two successful lays out of two: Simenon (2nd 15-8 favourite) and Pavlosk (unplaced 6-4 favourite). He also raked back some of the chips with a big win-and-place bet at Newmarket on Alex Vino (3rd 16-1). His naps are currently 121122.
WHAT’S OUR MAN’S OPINION ON THE EBOR? The going is soft on the Knavesmire today and Daqman tries to analyse stats and form with that in mind before delivering his opinion (hope that doesn’t give too much away).
2.05 York The only one with ‘soft’ on his win CV is Sirius Prospect (6.6 on BETDAQ as I write), a course-and-distance (CD) winner who has already landed a Listed, and performed in the top drawer over 6f.
The seven-year-old Set The Trend is the only other winner in the pattern. His stable has scored five times in the last two days, and there is a love of soft ground on the dam’s side of his pedigree.
Rex Imperator steps up a furlong from his recent Stewards Cup success and into the pattern for the first time. He’s been placed at 7f before but more rain and Rex’s stamina will be tested to the full.
You can come up with several scenarios, including Richard Fahey’s new boy Fort Bastion, very highly tried as a two-year-old by Richard Hannon in Group races, before breaking his maiden by 12 lengths on good to soft.
The Fahey yard also saddles Switcher with a similar profile: ran in four consecutive Group races as a two-year-old and her best form since was second in a big-field Listed at Ascot on the soft.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Sirius Prospect, 2 Rex Imperator
2.40 York Luca Cumani does well in this – two wins from four starters in eight years (form figures 1410) – and winners have squeezed into the ratings parameter 89-95 five times out of six.
Cumani is in the bull’s-eye with Havana Cooler, 93 rated. Don’t worry about his 10 draw; results of this are evenly split between low and high numbers.
Havana Cooler looks a leading player on his late flourish over 1m 4f in this grade at Goodwood and he ran well on soft ground on his debut last season, though unfancied at 50-1.
Great Hall (withdrawn) would have been worse off now with the pair he beat at Haydock on the firm, Debdebdeb and the hampered Hawk High (big at 13.0), who broke his maiden on on good to soft and runs for Tim Easterby, who is so far without a winner at his local meeting but scored at Newcastle yesterday.
Mister Impatience is also aimed at the St Leger and his two wins were both on soft ground. Second to the Derby winner in the Chester Vase and then fourth in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.
Dark Crusader won at Galway in yielding ground (equivalent of a class 3) but the race was so slow (14 secs above average) the ambulance passed them with the brakes on. Tony Martin insists that she’s improving all the time, but she needs to.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Havana Cooler, 2 Mister Impatience, 3 Hawk High
3.15 York (GIMCRACK STAKES)
STATS STABLES
Punters have been near the mark but have hit the bull only once with a successful favourite in the last decade. Kevin Ryan (Astaire) is almost always thereabouts with form figures of 124301 since 2005.
Ditto William Haggas, who’s also won it twice and has figures of 12144 since 2006, including the only horse in the decade to win under a Group penalty, as with his runner today, Saayerr.
FORM FOCUS
The long-striding Parbold has been placed in both the Coventry Stakes and the Vintage (also Group 2) at Goodwood but is by a sire who’s had only one winner on the soft.
My Catch, fifth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, won narrowly in a Group 3 at Deauville on the soft but beat ‘nothing.’
Wilshire Boulevard (6.2 on BETDAQ as I write) was not far off My Catch at Ascot, despite being drawn on the wrong side. He quickened off a yielding surface to win his maiden and won a Curragh Group 3 last time, but trainer Aidan O’Brien claims to be concerned about the ground.
Saayerr beat Cable Bay in a grade higher race at Goodwood and the pair have soft ground on both sides of the pedigree. Cable Bay (5.7 this morning) was still green that day and Saayerr has to carry a penalty.
THE VERDICT
1 Cable Bay, 2 Wilshire Boulevard, 3 Saayeer
3.50 York (EBOR HANDICAP)
STATS SHOCK
Five-year-olds are leading four-year-olds 11-10 in the last 35 years, with just three wins to older horses. Missing from the equation is the string of successful three-year-olds, not represented today and without a win since 2001.
Since then victory has gone to horses weighted 8st 4lb to 9st 4lb but this is misleading, since five of the winners in the decade have won from a rating in the narrowest of parameters, between 99 and 101 (seven between 94 and 101).
If you slavishly follow the stats, you have Oriental Fox and Caravan Rolls On figuring on 99 with Guarantee on 101.
But the stats that shock concern stalls bias: though the experts will tell you that a low draw is a bonus – even over 1m 6f – around the Knavesmire bends, the absolute opposite is the case, as far as the winner is concerned.
Although those drawn 10 and under have reached the first five 23 times in the decade, they have won only once. Winners by stall were 20, 17, 3, 18, 14, 14, 16, 22, 18 and 16. So Henry Ponsonby’s ‘we could have done with a better draw’ is not really a negative for Tiger Cliff.
FORM FOCUS
It’s all pluses for the very lightly raced Tiger Cliff (didn’t start racing until a year ago), who has had the speed to win at today’s trip and the stamina to run up to Well Sharp in the Ascot Stakes (2m 4f), and was second on the soft as a three-year-old.
Opinion (a great 8.0 after eight withdrawls), a winner on the soft, might just have the edge on a line through Caravan Rolls On but is being stepped up in trip here, though there seems to be no worries about it in the mind of Sir Michael Stoute, said to be aiming Opinion at the Melbourne Cup (2m).
Of the first and third in the Ebor trial at York on firm, Sun Central has been withdrawn, leaving Number Theory, the third horse that day and a soft-ground winner.
Ted Veale will enjoy the ground. He has to take a huge leap in class on Flat form but is a graded-race performer over hurdles with a Cheltenham success on the soft to his name.
THE VERDICT
1 Opinion, 2 Tiger Cliff, 3 Ted Veale.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
all main win bets to win 30 points.
VALUE BET: 5.3pts win SIRIUS PROSPECT (2.05 York)
VALUE BET: 8.3pts win (nap) HAVANA COOLER and 2.5pts win and place HAWK HIGH (2.40 York)
VALUE BETS: 6.3pts win CABLE BAY and 5.7pts win WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, and LAY 10pts PARBOLD (3.15 York)
VALUE BETS: 6.3pts win TIGER CLIFF and 4.2pts win OPINION (3.50 York)
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