FLAT OUT! THE FINAL FLING: Daqman, 103-22 up, needs to win by one on the final day of the Flat today to go 150 ahead of Pricewise of The Racing Post at the end of their fourth season doing battle. Currently 244-95, they clash in the 1.50, 2.20 and 3.30 Doncaster.
JUMPS IN! LONG ROAD AHEAD: There are also selections from them in the 2.05 Wincanton, as the Jumps season gets into full swing, featuring the return of names we know and love starting their long road to the 2016 Cheltenham Festival in the Spring.
ALL 50-POINT BULL’S-EYE BETS: To celebrate his tremendous season, Daqman goes on a spending spree, with each of his Flat-race bets staked to win 50 points (so all Bull’s-Eye Bets), plus a banker over the sticks, and a bid for eight lays in a row in a Triple Whammy attempt at win, place and lay in the same race.
IS THIS BOY GOOD LUCK FOR HAYLEY..
1.50 Doncaster (Good Luck Hayley Turner Handicap) You can expect big-odds shocks as the mud deepens at Donny. One of Hayley Turner’s final-fling mounts is Hillybilly Boy in the race named in her honour.
Hayley had a very good go at winning the Ayr Silver Cup on him (third) but the 6f was too short and the ground not soft enough. He has conditions to suit today, though the high draw is a worry.
In four of the last five seasons, the winning stalls have been 2 (twice), 3 and 5, and three-year-olds have won twice. Both stats are pointers to Caprior Bere, narrowly beaten at 33-1 over CD in September and a winner on soft-heavy, yet 45.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
2.20 Doncaster Crowned the jockey Cock O’The North, Graham Lee may be taking them along here on Shared Equity, tactics which paid off on the last day, but he is 9lb higher now.
Lightning Moon (5.2 in the BETDAQ orange at the time of writing) drops down from Group level with every chance of an end-of season consolation on ground he loves.
Jack Dexter has also not been disgraced in Group company this year and is 9lb lower than when winning this race on the soft in 2013.
He was only fourth last year off 4lb higher than today, nearly five lengths behind Lancelot Du Lac, but Lancelot is a difficult horse to win with and his best form has been on a sounder surface.
Yet another Group horse, Iveagh Gardens (I saw plenty liquidity at 6.6) is over from Ireland. His best form has been come-from-behind over 7f, but jockey Fran Berry is in devastating form right now, including four wins from his last five mounts.
2.55 Doncaster It’s honours even in the decade (5-5) between the generations, and both have five runners in this.
The odd one out, aged five, is Princess Loulou, beaten a length (not much room final furlong) last year, and a tasty 10.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Blue Waltz is a CD winner but, when stepped up to this Listed level was behind Brandybend (will the hood work again?)
.. OR IS IT BUON VOYAGE, MISS TURNER?
3.30 Doncaster (November Handicap) The stats say that Hayley Turner has at least a one in seven chance of winning this on Buonarroti, as she ends her career with a ride for Declan Carroll, the trainer who provided her first mount 15 years ago.
In the six most recent runnings of this race when the ground has been declared heavy or soft, all six winners came from stalls 14 or higher, and in four of those the second horse home was in 18 or higher.
In the favoured-stalls parameter today, Barwick, Onlyorsenfoolsies and Giantstepsahead are older than the norm for winners of this race, which leaves a lucky seven with the draw advantage, including Buonarroti.
A pity we won’t see Hayley in the Shergar Cup next year against, and alongside, the Aussie spitfire, Michelle Payne, now as famous for what she said after the Melbourne Cup as she is for winning it.
Buonarroti can reverse form with Penhill at the revised weights after their one-two at Haydock, though that was only Penhill’s fifth race of the campaign whereas it is 2015 outing number 10 for Buonarroti today.
Cousin Khee and Esteaming are also on 10 for the season today and it would be hard to deny that the handicapper knows them well, and fallacious to say they have been saved up for the race.
Seamour (a 6.0 offer) has had only nine races in his entire career, most of them over 2m or more, though the soft ground will help bring out his stamina, and the handicapper says that he’s improved a stone this year.
Iain Jardine has hit a seam of form (current figures 3131) and it may be a Shrewd move to back his 24.0 outsider. He’s carried 9st 3lb, 9st 8lb, even 9st 11lb, in recent runs but has a featherweight 8st, claimed off, in this company.
PALLADIUM COULD TAKE CENTRE STAGE AT 22.0
1.30 Wincanton (Rising Stars Novices’ Chase). Paul Nicholls’ recent record in this is 111UF11211, only one horse – second – letting him down for eight in a row still standing.
Arpege d’Alene can make it nine. My man in the long grass says that, though this is a 140 horse over hurdles, he can exceed that mark going chasing.
1.55 and 2.30 Aintree Charlie Longsdon has been in terrific form with 10 winners in the last fortnight and Our Kaempfer has been placed in a Grade-1 novice.
But Broxbourne, a classy stayer on the Flat, should appreciate the step up in trip. The one we expect to take out of this hurdle for future chase dates is Grand National fifth Shutthefrontdoor.
Similarly, Nicky Henderson brings Arkle winner Simonsig (2.30 race) back in a hurdles race after a long lay-off.
2.05 Wincanton (Badger Ales Trophy) Horses just out of novice class win this: Carole’s Destrier, A Good Skin, Doing Fine, Royal Palladium and The Ould Lad.
The race has become a marker for the time of year but – apart from one Kim Muir scorer – it has produced nothing of note in the decade, and following the winner has been expensive.
The West Country has kept the prize at home eight times in the decade, and the rising star of their ranks is Bath trainer Neil Mulholland.
Interesting that he’s swerving the Hennessy with Carole’s Destrier, the seven-year-old nominated by Tony McCoy as a Grand National horse.
Paul Nicholls has won it seven times and The Ould Lad is favourite this morning, making his debut for Ditcheat off a featherweight.
Royal Palladium (22.0 on BETDAQ as I write) could be the best outsider with Venetia Williams already making her usual Saturday hits at this time of year.
Alfie Spinner is the bridesmaid in this race – twice second – now 10, going on 11, and that’s more than he can hope for this time. There hasn’t been a winner of double-figure age for 15 years, and he faces too many improvers.
DAQMAN’S FINAL-FLING FLAT BETS (each one staked to win 50 points) and JUMPS-START BETS (each one staked to win 30 points)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (Jumps nap) ARPEGE D’ALENE (1.30 Wincanton)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place CAPRIOR BERE (1.50 Doncaster)
BET 8pts win BROXBOURNE (1.55 Aintree)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts ALFIE SPINNER; BET 10pts win THE OULD LAD, and 1.5pts win and place ROYAL PALLADIUM (2.05 Wincanton)
BET 12pts win LIGHTNING MOON and 9pts win IVEAGH GARDENS (2.20 Doncaster)
BET 5pts win and place PRINCESS LOULOU (2.55 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win (Flat nap) SEAMOUR and 2pts win and place SHREWD (3.30 Doncaster)
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