2.66 GRANDEUR TO MAKE IT FOUR BANKERS IN A ROW: Daqman landed his fourth consecutive nap – the last three a hat-trick of banker bets – with a maximum-stakes place on Regal Dan (3rd 9-4) at Lingfield yesterday, following winners at 5-4, 10-11 and 4-11. He goes for his fourth consecutive banker today with Grandeur, taking 2.66 on BETDAQ this morning.
23-7 BIG-RACE SCORE INCLUDES 20-1 AND 16-1 WINNERS: At the other end of the scale, Saturday-king Daqman has had winners at 20-1, 16-1, 12-1, 9-1 8-1, 6-1 (three times) and 5-1 (twice) as he has outgunned the trade-paper’s Pricewise tipsters 23-7 since he challenged every value bet since November 23.
EIDER DOWN TO ‘ACES’ AT 8.6 ON BETDAQ: It’s more of the same today, as our man names morning offers (early-mouse bets, he calls them) at 20.0, 10.5, 8.8, and 8.4 (twice) across the cards at Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle, including 8.6 about Smoking Aces in the Eider Chase.
1.45 Lingfield: David Barron is two out of two in this since 2010 and bids for a hat-trick with a horse well drawn and fit from racing in Dubai. Hitchens was a huge 20.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
2.05 Kempton: This race is occasionally a pointer to the highest class (Binocular won it) and Paul Nicholls is 121U1 in this since 2009, including Zarkandar who went on to Cheltenham and won the Triumph Hurdle.
One of two Nicholls runners today is Solar Impulse, ridden by former French champion jockey David Cottin, who rode more than 100 winners at home last year, including Solar Impulse to a scintillating 10-lengths success at Auteuil in June.
Solar Impulse flopped first run in England but has had a soft-palate op since then and I grabbed 10.5 offers early mouse.
Activial looks hard to beat but Nicholls stopped him with Calipto at Newbury in November, so I shall take my selection’s stablemate, Alcala, as the alternative.
2.40 Kempton (Pendil Novices Chase) Paul Nicholls’ record in this one is 11111311. Only Captain Chris (2011) could beat his selected.
But horses over the age of seven haven’t won this for 10 years now, and you are normally looking for a youngster on the upgrade, not a nine-year-old like Nicholls’ Dark Lover, who has first-time cheekpieces to try to improve his jumping.
It’s very tight at the front between Balder Success and Fox Appeal, and I have no opinion to divide them. But BETDAQ offers are amazing all day. This race’s total probability, adding up all the offers as percentage probability, is 102%
The difference between exchange and bookmaker is even more marked in the next race, the Eider, which has 16 horses listed in the orange adding up to 108% though the race had Total SPs of 121, 124 and 125% in three of the last five years.
2.55 Newcastle (Eider Chase) Despite heavy ground 50% of the time, there have been no winners of this in the decade below 11st and six of the last seven were rated 131 to 139, which would give you the top five on today’s card, if you included the claim off Junior.
Junior has dropped 10lb this season – deduct a further 7lb for the claim – and he was fourth in the West Wales National in a bog at Ffos Las on the last day.
The unlucky horse of that race was Smoking Aces, who was cantering when he made a crucial error but still finished third, just ahead of Junior.
Relax is another mudlark. It was a slow-run race at Sandown (3m 1f) which he seized by the scruff of the neck last time but he has been most progressive and looks a big, galloping sort ready to step up in trip.
If the boy Callum Whillans is good for his 5lb claim, Relax is penalized only 2lb., but he’ll be lucky to win it from the front.
Sun Cloud won the North Yorkshire Grand National and – still only seven – is also likely to make his mark in staying events but that win cost him a stunner of a 12lb rise and it was only class 3. Much more needed.
Similarly, Royale Knight won the Scottish Borders National and a 12lb rise stopped him in the Warwick Classic, albeit not disgraced in a Graded race, but he prefers a sounder surface. Josh Moore’s claim claws a bit back.
Tarquinius has been laid out for the race but has to bounce back at age 11, and trainer Gordon Elliott describes him as ‘slow as a hearse.’ Wyck Hill likewise: he’s disappointed in the last 14 months.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: With the extra distance all in his favour, and the slower pace to help his jumping, Smoking Aces looks ‘the one most likely to’. I took 8.6.
3.15 Kempton (Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle) Alan King is 113010 and Nicky Henderson 102031 in a race which has thrown up Grumeti and Sire De Grugy in the last three seasons.
But it’s Paul Nicholls who heads the BETDAQ market with Irving, the hat-trick winner who is as short as 7-1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
He’ll have to be good. Only one horse in eight seasons has been capable of carrying 11st 9lb to victory in this (Pigeon Island 2008). He has to give 7lb to Cup Final (Tony McCoy), who was odds on to beat him at Taunton but returned with a gashed leg.
Irving also gives 3lb to First Mohican, my bet for the Supreme at 20.0 for this column on BETDAQ (he’s now 14.0). I have to stay loyal (at 4.5 early mouse). If he wins this, he’ll be cut to around 6.0 for the festival, giving me massive ‘overs’ to trade.
3.30 Lingfield (Winter Derby Trial) Favourites are five in a row in this, with no winner bigger than 11-2 SP. There have been none over the age of six in the decade, or carrying less than 8st 12lb, so youth with a touch of class is the requirement.
Goodwood Listed winner Grandeur, who drops back from Group 1, looks a stand-out on the stats and on form for a stable currently 2-4 on AW. I took 2.66. Banker.
3.50 Kempton Favourites have a lean time in this one (1-10), which has gone to horses of seven or eight carrying between 10st 5lb and 11st four years in the last five.
Tom George (Whats Happening) had a four-year sequence of 1231 in the race with Nacarat, and Philip Hobbs (Planet Of Sound) has also won it twice since 2005.
The Eider Chase could herald the winner of this, since Relax beat the novice Ardkilly Witness at Sandown three weeks back, after that one won at Wincanton, both right-handed tracks like Kempton today. ‘Witness’ also won over hurdles at Towcester, going right-handed.
Standing Ovation is another who needs to go clockwise: he’s 50% (4-8) going right-handed but 0-5 when sent anti-clockwise. However, he’s high in the weights now and seems to prefer a sounder surface.
The handicapper has taken a chance, dropping Scottish Grand National fourth Tour Des Champs 10lb in one fell swoop after his Welsh National defeat. He now has 12lb less than when he ran at the Cheltenham Festival in March, and is visored for the first time today.
Bury Parade has improved at home since winning at Ascot over shorter but that was first time in a hood and he is now closely matched with the runner-up, stablemate Grandioso.
The race is an experiment for both horses with Cheltenham handicaps in mind: the pair attempt 3m for the first time.
Midnight Appeal’s success has come only when fresh and he is 7lb higher than his winning mark. Planet Of Sound is a once-a-year horse these days, and he’s had his win.
The trainer describes this as ‘Bally Legend’s Cheltenham,’ aiming him at the race all season, with his form at Kempton 21242 but, though he could place again (29.0 for the win on BETDAQ, as I write), he is a front-runner who has yet to reach the first three over fences beyond 21f.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’ll take the improver, Ardkilly Witness (offers of 8.4), and the handicap blot, Tour Des Champs (also 8.4, as I write), who is first-time visored
DAQMAN’S BETS (each one staked to win 30 points at offers taken on BETDAQ before 10.30 a.m.)
BET 1.5pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) HITCHENS (1.45 Lingfield)
BET 7.8pts win ALCALA and 3pts win SOLAR IMPULSE (2.05 Kempton)
BET 4pts win and place SMOKING ACES (2.55 Newcastle)
BET 8.5pts win FIRST MOHICAN (3.15 Kempton)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) GRANDEUR (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win on each ARDKILLY WITNESS and TOUR DES CHAMPS (3.50 Kempton)
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