DAQMAN’S 40-POINTER TO THE BIG HURDLE: Daqman has not only raised his stakes all round today, targeting 30 points a bet, but has singled out a 15.0 shot in the big BF Hurdle to win a 40-point bonanza. And his sole win bet at Lingfield was another big-value BETDAQ offer this morning at 13.0.
BANK ON NICHOLLS: IT’S HIS BIG DAY: Daring Daqman will be dodging bullets if this lot lose! He’s put his lay of the day on a horse that’s won six in a row, and he’s put banker stakes (20 points) and a near-banker bet (15) on Paul Nicholls’ big two. Plus a yankee!
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 8-2 IN 2014 TOP RACES: Daqman is 8-2 up this year in his challenge to the Pricewise value column, and leads the trade-paper tipster 19-6 overall since November 23, when he launched the match.
This is Ditcheat Day on the racing calendar. It’s the day that Paul Nicholls has given a last winning round to his champions before Cheltenham, among them the very cream of the yard: Azertyuiop, Denman, Kauto Star and Master Minded.
As I’ve shown by his form figures in each race analysis, Nicholls has has had 16 winners all told in just four races at this meeting in the last decade.
1.20 Newbury Ditcheat runners are 1021312 in this, including Al Ferof before he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but I won’t be going banco here. I will just put Calipto in my small Daq Multiples.
He should enhance his Triumph Hurdle claims but this has never been a race for tender four-year-olds and we don’t know whether the ground will help the experienced Seedling. It will certainly boost the Irish Flat winner Justification.
1.50 Newbury I hear that Upswing is a Cheltenham Festival handicap dark horse for Jonjo. He is twice the animal going left-handed and was hunted round Cheltenham in November.
But today I’ll have my pound on Brackloon High, a massive 21.0 in a 105% orange on BETDAQ as I write. Richard Johnson takes over from a claimer for the first time in 14 months.
2.25 Newbury (Denman Chase) Paul Nicholls winners of this – his form in the race is 1121131 – include, of course, Kauto Star and Denman, himself.
I’ll bank on Al Ferof, the King George third, over slow-jumper Harry Topper with the nearly horse Katenko the main danger.
3.00 Newbury (Game Spirit Chase) 11311203 for Nicholls, who now has Dodging Bullets trying to emulate Azertyuiop (2004-5) and Master Minded (2008-10). Module’s love of heavy ground makes him a threat.
3.35 Newbury (BF Hurdle) The last seven winners have all been aged five or six, and eight of the last nine have carried 11st 2lb or less. Going right back to Gold Trophy days, Nicky Henderson has won it five times.
Just 12 in today’s field have won on heavy ground: Alaivan (three times), Poet (3), Irish Saint (2), Jumps Road (2), Rolling Star (2), Smashing (2), Totalize (2), and one each for Act Of Kalanisi, Cheltenian, Chris Pea Green, Far West and Recession Proof.
Classy contenders are Greatwood winner Dell Arca, Champion Bumper winner Cheltenian, International Hurdle third Jumps Road, Alaivan (County Hurdle sixth), Montbazon (Supreme Novices fourth), Recession Proof (Supreme Novices fifth), Vendor (third in the Fred Winter, Swing Bowler (third in today’s race last year) and Totalize (Fred Winter fifth).
Far West (second), Rolling Star, Vasco De Ronceray and Chris Pea Green) all finished in the first seven in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Some race this, isn’t it!
Form: At Ascot in December, Chris Pea Green finished well clear of the subsequent Ascot winner (over further) Irish Saint and the Haydock winner Rolling Star (beat Far West last time), with Totalize pulled up, though Dell ‘Arca would have been involved but for being badly hampered.
Deep Trouble has modest form on today’s surface and Montbazon (after 697 days off) and Vasco De Ronceray (310 days) try it for the first time.
CD-winner Vendor has also won at Newbury over further and was used to running in very soft ground at Auteuil. Had had a wind op in the summer. Goes well fresh.
Swing Bowler also goes well after a break but this is a big step up, and Tom Scu is on the same stable’s Dell’ Arca, another from France who won the Greatwood first run in England.
Cheltenian is the enigma. This Grade-1 bumper winner won on heavy on his comeback after injury and Hobbs stable is having a good season.
Splash of Gingre (front runner), Recession Proof (not as good as he was) and Alaivan – McCoy not wanted – who holds Poet, are all claimed off, which puts them more in the mix.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has a strong hand. Far West had been a sick horse when beaten by Rolling Star in November and now looks well handicapped, while Irish Saint is still 7lb well in with only a 5lb penalty.
Chris Pea Green’s yard had back-to-back wins in this (2007-8). Smashing is 5lb lower in England than at home. Vendor is ideal on the stats.
Cheltenian and midweek gamble Alaivan make up a great eight for this race, headed by Dell’ Arca, who looked special in the Greatwood.
1 Dell’ Arca, 2 Vendor, 3 Far West, 4 Irish Saint. The value is clearly Vendor (15.0) on BETDAQ, so I’m increasing my stake on him.
3.45 Lingfield Despite his one draw, the portents are not good for Perfect Pasture, attempting seven wins in a row – up 43lb since August – by scoring back to back over today’s CD.
His stable has slumped to a form low in the last fortnight with seven straight losers. It’s the nature of their defeat that suggests the stable should be avoided – only one has placed, with two stone last and three others last but one – and SPs of 100-1 (twice), 66-1, 33-1, 20-1 and 11-1 say that confidence in them was rock bottom.
I warned that, though he may well win on his return to the saddle (in typical benefit bookings) Frankie Dettori’s strike rate was likely to be poor as time went on. In fact, he has since fired a string of blanks: eight losers in a row in the last fortnight.
But he’s back from Meydan for an interesting mount here in Nocturn for Jeremy Noseda, who was intended to provide Dettori with his comeback win here at Lingfield. It did win but Frankie nipped in with one earlier in the day.
Nocturn beat the subsequent Royal Ascot favourite, Enrol, among three out of four wins, starting his season here at Lingfield with a narrow defeat in his first race after being gelded.
He could be a lot better than these and 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning looked tasty against that dodgy favourite Perfect Pasture and second in the market, Absolutely So, who is only class-4 level on public form.
The 7f winner Iptisam should be finishing well and Rivellino ought to close down, if not overtake, Perfect Pasture at the revised weights.
4.10 Newbury Paul Nicholls (Sam Winner) is 11311 in this but some of that training feat was down to former assistant Harry Fry (Mendip Express), while Smad Place is the shortest price of the trio for the RSA. Winner or Place?
DAQMAN’S BETS are staked to win 30 points each, except Vendor, 40 points, and the banker on Al Ferof. It’s time soon to start my 20-point banker lays. Meanwhile daily lays are to 10pts.
BET 1.5pt win and place (Outsider Of The Day) BRACKLOON HIGH and 1pt win (stakes saver) UPSWING (1.50 Newbury)
BANKER NAP: BET 20pts win AL FEROF (2.25 Newbury)
BET 15pts win DODGING BULLETS (3.00 Newbury)
BET 4pts win IRISH SAINT, 3.6pts win DELL’ ARCA, 2.6pts win FAR WEST and 2.8pts win (to win 40 points) VENDOR (3.35 Newbury)
LAY 10pts PERFECT PASTURE and BET 2.5pts win and place NOCTURN (3.45 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee Calipto (1.20 Newbury), Al Ferof (2.25 Newbury), Dodging Bullets (3.00 Newbury) and Nocturn (3.45 Lingfield)
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