SNOW START TO SUNNY SATURDAY: The gloves are off again in the battle for value – 2.00 and 2.35 Newbury today – with the score Daqman 33, Pricewise (Racing Post) 14. Both agree on Persian Snow for a sunny start. Daqman’s nap, which is currently on three out of four, is also at Newbury.
TOMORROW: FLAT COUNTDOWN: Starting tomorrow is Daqman’s countdown to the Lincoln Handicap and beyond to the Aintree Festival and the Grand National. Don’t miss his Lincoln ABC Guide for next Saturday’s big race.
CLIMATE RIGHT FOR McCOY NEWBURY NAP
2.00 Newbury Pepite Rose has got her ground and is down to the same mark as she won this off last year. The snag is her stable form.
Venetia Williams has had only two winners from 31 starters in the last 12 days and they beat just four finishers home in total.
Philip Hobbs, on the other, has suddenly returned to form (three winners out of five, still standing) and Carrigmorna King is well in now with Wiesentraum on the basis of his first run back in the autumn.
But Richard Johnson chooses King’s stable companion Persian Snow, another who also ran a top-class race on the better ground in the autumn, second to Johns Spirit, at Cheltenham.
That was before Johns Spirit ran second in the Power Gold Cup, and Persian Snow, who has had a break – needs to be caught fresh – looked big at 8.8 on BETDAQ early mouse, double the Pepite Rose offers. Value and likely trade.
2.35 Newbury (NH Novices’ Hurdle Finale) The last five winners have carried 10st 12lb or less, with Nicky Henderson’s second or even third strings winning at 12-1, 14-1 and 25-1.
This time Henderson runs just the one, Spartan Angel, who has no special form lines but is unbeat en in three starts on good ground.
Twentytwo’s Taken is bred for the step up in trip, and connections will have to hope that the slower pace of this 2m 5f will help his jumping fluency. They couldn’t get this nervy sort up the handicap in time for Cheltenham, so she missed the cuts in her selected races.
Ballyhollow is likely to put pace to the race. She’s hooded first time to try to recover her January form, but she didn’t last out against Tara Mist at Ludlow before the grey Kayf Tara mare ran As De Mee close at Leicester.
That reads well after As De Mee’s win in the male version of this final at Sandown two weeks ago. Second in the same race last year was the very winner of this Finale today!
The lightly raced Kalanisi mare, Kalane, has been the punt for this all week and ‘could be anything,’ as they say. Her dam was sister to the Gold Cup winner, Kicking King.
She could easily take off, stepped up to this staying trip and, though she lacks experience at this stage, has a tasty 120 mark after getting some black type in a Leicester Listed behind male horses running off 136 and 137
The winner is likely to come from Kalane, Spartan Angel, Tara Mist and Twentytwo’s Taken, which I shall delete for being in the wrong place in the handicap, according to the stats, giving weight to the three others.
The value may have gone from the punt on Kalane who would do well to beat a big field like this after only two hurdles starts. So I’m on 8.0 Spartan Angel and 9.8 Tara Mist, but I’m not stepping up to bull’s-eye stakes, this being a race of shock results.
3.10 Newbury Another race that goes to the bottom third of the handicap, where Financial Climate has his ground and the services of A P McCoy, who has been on nine losing favourites in the last few days. Get a grip, young man; or get back to the jockeys’ training school!
The truth is, of course, that punters would make the starter’s hack favourite if A P took over the reins and Financial Climate, 6.2 this morning on BETDAQ, could be a trade later on in a race populated by old-timers (come on, Carruthers!) and nearly horses.
Top-of-the-ground contender, Imperial Circus (11.5), could be dangerous with Hobbs back to form and Amigo drops out of Graded contests. Master Neo has had a bad winter. No Duffer is up in the weights and Sin Bin has won neither hurdle nor chase.
3.45 Newbury You’d expect turn-ups (and you get them! Two 20-1 winners in eight years) in a handicap for juveniles but non-winners don’t score.
All are maidens here except the top four, of which Gimme Five gets weight from the others. The step up in trip should suit a 2m Flat winner and 12.0 on BETDAQ looks big.
VIKING IS IN A GOOD SEAM OF FORM
2.15 Kelso Fentara was runner-up last year off 123 with 10st 7lb. He’s up 10lb in the ratings now but has only 2lb more in the saddle, which suggests that this year’s field is much better quality.
Fentara won twice last Spring but only when dropped a level to class 3. Cloudy Too won the Rowland Meyrick in 2013 but has struggled off higher marks since and a recent comeback was not convincing.
Knockara Beau is another who’s been used to much better class than this but he’s 12 now and the stable looks very limited. The Eider was a trip too far for Sharney Sike.
Knock A Hand returned to form on the stiff Carlisle track on the last day but is a once-a-year winner who is now on his highest ever mark.
Sun Cloud was back at his best three weeks ago but he, too, is off his highest mark and has never won outside class 3. Major Malarkey is also unlikely to repeat his recent success at age 12.
Harry the Viking (I took 7.4 this morning) has his trip and ground. Recent seconds to Lie Forrit, including in the Haydock Grand National Trial, have been expensive, though he’s claimed off and used to carry much more than this, including at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.
Four wins over hurdles and The Last Samuri could have added three over fences but for unseating here at Kelso when he seemingly had the race won. However, the handicapper has reduced his original handicap mark.
2.50 Kelso This is a marathon hurdle with Samstown (17.0 this morning) back from chasing, with a CD win over the easier obstacles as recent as November.
Spookydooky is up in trip and up in the weights. Racing Europe is bred for the distance but hasn’t shown enough to suggest he can win t is.
Cultram Abbey (8.2 offers) is intriguing. Apart from the bumper, he is the only one of eight left in on this card by Nicky Richards, whose fine run this season continues, with a near-40% strike rate in the last three weeks.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 6.4pts win PERSIAN SNOW (2.00 Newbury)
BET 4.6pts win HARRY THE VIKING (2.15 Kelso)
BET 4.2pts win SPARTAN ANGEL and 3.4pts win TARA MIST (2.35 Newbury)
BET 4pts win CULTRAM ABBEY and 1.8pts win SAMSTOWN (2.50 Kelso)
BET 3.8pts win (nap) FINANCIAL CLIMATE (3.10 Newbury)
BET 2.7pts win GIMME FIVE (3.45 Newbury)
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