‘SOFT’ RAIDER WILL FALL: ANOTHER DARING DAQMAN LAY: Daqman defies the unbeaten Soft Falling Rain in the Hungerford at Newbury this afternoon and roots for a three-year-old under Johnny Murtagh.
TOP BOYS PUT THE ‘SPIN’ ON THE RIPON SPRINT: He finds a 14.0 offer on BETDAQ for the big sprint at Ripon, the Great St Wilfrid, banking on two runners which are apprentice ridden.
1.30 Deauville (Prix Du Calvados) English stables are looking for a hat-trick in this, after Elusive Kate (John Gosden) and Purr Along (William Muir) in the last two seasons. Confidential Lady won it for Sir Mark Prescott in 2005.
The race is a vital clue to our two-year-old strength and 2014 Classic betting, since Richard Fahey’s runner, Sandiva (stepping up a furlong here), finished a long second in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot to Kiyoshi, favourite for the 1,000 Guineas.
But, as Kiyoshi is trained Charles Hills, we can expect a big show from his runner today, Chriselliam, who won easily at Warwick from a dual winner in second.
Tom Dascombe’s Fillies’ Mile entry Hot Coffee comes out at least Group 3 on a line through Lady Lara but that one was out of sight behind Kiyoshi earlier. Charlie Appleby runs Feedyah, who can perhaps be forgiven her Sandown run latest (slow away; no pace on).
1.50 Newmarket Double represented ‘king of the nurseries’ Richard Hannon might have to give way here to the Charlie Appleby filly, Autumn Lily, who should step up into the pattern for some black type after this. Lady In Blue lurks among the lightweights as the danger, stepped up in trip.
2.05 Newbury (Washington Singer Stakes) This race last year threw up to the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner, Just The Judge, and another filly, Grevillea, tries to beat the colts again today.
Fourth in the Chesham and even better when runner-up in a Group 2 last time out, Somewhat has Gerald Mosse in the plate, while Johnny Murtagh partners the New Approach colt, Speedy Approach, whose dam’s line goes back to Oaks winner Height Of Fashion (one of whose foals was Guineas and Derby winner Nashwan).
New Approach is also responsible for the highly-touted Be Ready, reckoned Godolphin’s best juvenile but the only debutant in today’s field.
2.40 Newbury (Geoffrey Freer Stakes) It’s a big day at Deauville but Alain De Royer-Dupre and Antoine ‘Piped Piper’ Hamelin raid England with I’m Your Man.
They promised to be back after they had the Fred Archer Stakes on the July Course pinched from them in the last stride by Lost In The Moment. I’m Your Man was the ‘moral’, giving 3lb to the winner (levels today), and recording his best form away from soft ground.
Chances of the entire Aiken would, on form and breeding (he’s a Selkirk), also be improved by more rain. Goes well fresh but has clearly had his problems to be absent 10 months.
Despite the step up in trip, Kieren Fallon reckons Royal Empire his best of the day, second of his mounts this afternoon for Godolphin.
Ralston Road, Testudo and Genzy all like to front-run, so there should be no shortage of pace, but the race seems to hinge on rain and the fitness of Aiken. Yet only one other horse has winning form above Listed level.
Is this the swan-song for the seven-year-old Red Cadeaux? Winner in fact of three Group races all told, he has been obliged to trade blows with such as Novellist and Al Kazeem.
The ease in the ground and the drop down from Group 1 for the first time in 14 months into this middleweight division means that the 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning is plain wrong.
3.15 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes) Mike De Kock brought David Livingston to the English pattern last Saturday and nicked a Group 3 at Haydock.
Today he has a long-range luxury double in mind with The Apache in the Arlington Million and Soft Falling Rain in this Hungerford Stakes.
The Racing Post analysis on line reported that the form of Soft Falling Rain’s Group 2 in Meydan as ‘nothing special’ and the horse he beat in the UAE Guineas, Snowboarder, has won only a handicap on turf in England and was last of six to Afsare at Salisbury on Thursday.
Richard Hughes describes Meydan form in his column today as ‘never rock solid’. I’ve always bet against it, and I’ll be laying Soft Falling Rain today.
Again there is a question mark over the Gosden runner: will it be soft enough for Gregorian? I’m left choosing between Caspar Netscher, the ‘moral’ at Goodwood, giving weight to the winner, Garswood, and Tawhid, who also did well at Goodwood, getting within little more than a length of the Jersey Stakes runner-up, Montiridge.
Tawhid had Snowboarder more than two lengths behind him in third which, if horses were machines, means he’s level peggings with Soft Falling Rain, using that one as our line. Tawhid was 5.7 on BETDAQ this morning in an orange totting up to a almost dead on 100%. Magic!
Three-year-olds have won the last three runnings of this race and I’m not as down on this year’s Classic generation as most. I have Mr Tactis himself, Johnny Murtagh, riding for me here in a five-runner race.
3.30 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid Handicap) David O’Meara is double-handed in his bid for a hat-trick in this race after back-to-back wins with Pepper Lane, who last year had stablemate Louis The Pious in third.
‘Louis’ has 3lb more off 100 as today’s flagship for the yard, though O’Meara’s bottomweight, Dick Bos, is a course-and-distance winner. That was a grade lower but he was not disgraced, seventh, in the York Dash three weeks ago.
The draw is very tricky. One year (2010), the result by stall is 6, 1, 8, then the next (2011) it’s 17, 20 19. Even more confusing, they won from 10, 18, 7 last year but came up the far rail.
And today’s pace horses are split across the course: Rodrigo De Torres (s all 7) and Dr Red Eye (in 15). Maybe the high numbers have it, with Summerinthecity (18) likely to take up the baton after a couple of furlongs.
You need soft ground if lightweights are to be effective: only once in 10 years has the winner carried less than 8st 10lb. Nine times out of the 10 the winner on the ratings is between 94-100.
Baccarat and Spinatrix, top and bottom of that ratings parameter, and both CD winners, are at the front of the market but it was a punter-friendly 108% on BETDAQ when I placed my bets this morning. Last year’ the bookies hiked their take-out to 137% Total SP.
The boy-riders’ allowances claimed for Spinatrix and Prodigality (14.0 this morning) give them two or three lengths daylight in the handicap but Baccarat is better than the bare form.
3.50 Newbury I would expect the winner to be aged three or four, which has happened seven times in the last eight years. One of them will make a moderate favourite, Dance And Dance, dance.
Glen Moss (Murtagh) and Born To Surprise are close together on form. The dark horse, Secret Talent, second to a Listed winner in the Spring, has a wide draw but an interesting jockey booking and further rain could see the money put down.
Tonight at Arlington Park Ryan Moore can boost his bank balance with Dandino (9.52) – just touched off in the Woodbine International in America last season – and complete back-to-back wins for Marco Botti in the American St Leger.
Wigmore Hall bids for fourth time lucky after excuses for his last two runs in the last two Arlington Millions and his earlier second in the Secretariat. I don’t like so many let-downs, even with excuses.
Yeager (10.23 has no chance in the Secretariat if Timeform has it even half right: they have him 25lb behind Virginia Derby third Jack Milton (didn’t get a clear run).
He could be too good for another winning partnership of last year, Alain De Royuer-Dupre and Christophe Lemaire, with the grey Rock of Gibraltar colt, Visiyani.
Marketing Mix (11.02 Beverley D. Stakes), runner-up in the Breeders Cup (fillies and mares), was an unlucky second in this last year, but I’ve always been a big fan of Duntle, who just holds Dank on Ascot form.
Half the field (drawn higher than 7) can stay at home, according to past results of the Arlington Million (11.44), so Grandeur (Noseda – Buick), The Apache for De Kock with Christophe Soumillon booked, Guest of Honour (Botti), Mull Of Killough (Jane Chapple-Hyam) and last year’s winner from gate 4, Little Mike (now in 11), are all up against it.
It seems to leave the way clear for Argentine champion Indy Point (stall 7) but gives a chance to Andrew Balding’s Side Glance (in the frame World Cup and Woodbine Mile) and Godolphin’s Hunter’s Light (Ryan Moore up).
DAQMAN’S BETS:
all English bets staked to win 30 points.
VALUE BET: 8pts win AUTUMN LILY and 2pts win and place LADY IN BLUE (1.50 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 5.8pts win I’M YOUR MAN and 2.7pts win RED CADEAUX, with 2pts (stakes saver) AIKEN (2.40 Newbury)
VALUE BET: 6pts win (nap) NINJAGO (2.55 Newmarket)
LAY 10pts SOFT FALLING RAIN and GOLD VALUE BET: 6.3pts win TAWHID, with 2pts win (stakes saver) CASPAR NETSCHER (3.15 Newbury)
VALUE BET: 5.5pts win BACCARAT, 3pts win SPINATRIX (3.30 Ripon) and 2.3pts win PRODIGALITY (3.30 Ripon)
BET 5.3pts win GLEN MOSS and 3.4pts win SECRET TALENT (3.50 Newbury)
ARLINGTON BETS (no recommended stakes): 9.52 Dandino, 10.23 Jack Milton, 11.02 Duntle, 11.44 Side Glance (e.w.).
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