2-1 NAP AND MAJOR-RACE WINNER AT 10-1: Daqman, who landed winners at 20-1 and 14-1 on Hennessy Day last Saturday, was unbeaten yesterday in three races with his nap, outsider and big-race bet in the Devon Marathon all winning. In race-time order:
WON 5-1 KILLALA QUAY
WON 10-1 MAJOR MALARKEY
WON 2-1 (nap) BALLY LEGEND
75 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: Just as he did for the race won by Jumps Road (WON 7-2) on Thursday, Daqman increased his stake on the Devon Marathon to win 30, so that his two-day total profit reached more than 75 points.
HE LEADS PRICEWISE 8-1 IN VALUE HUNT: In his two-week-old challenge to the Racing Post tipster, Pricewise, Daqman leads 8-1 (eight returns, win and place, to Pricewise’s one), with last Saturday including:
WON 20-1 TRIOLO D’ALENE
WON 5-1 HEY BIG SPENDER
2.05 Aintree (Becher Chase) They struggle to carry a big weight over these Grand National fences. So look for older horses (7 out of 8 aged nine over) with a rating which puts them below 11st (7 out of 10).
Clan Royal (2003) and Black Apalachi (2008) went on to be second in the National. Silver Birch (won this in 2004 for Paul Nicholls) achieved Aintree glory for Gordon Elliott, but not until 2007.
Half the previous winners of this in the last decade had jumped the National fences before and five had won a Graded race.
Renewing rivalry today are second, third, fourth and sixth in this last year: Join Together, Big Fella Thanks, Swing Bill and Gullible Gordon, with Join Together and Swing Bill both 2lb lower today.
Swing Bill (6th) and Join Together (12th) – blinkered first time for Paul Nicholls (three winners in nine years) this afternoon – also jumped round in the Grand National itself, but Join Together was badly out of form when sent to Auteuil last month.
Swing Bill could be the pick from last year, getting the good ground he needs today. Apart from his fourth in this and sixth in the National, he was fifth in the Topham, and he’s won his reappearance two Novembers running.
Swing Bill’s stable is flying, so it’s intriguing that Tom Scu rides Bostons Angel, having his first race for David Pipe, switched from cross-country racing. Sizing Australia is also a banks performer, and I remember Silver Birch coming from that discipline to win a National.
Planet Of Sound has ‘done nothing’ since the 2012 National, when he finished a remote 12th, but was 12lb higher than today. Stable in fine autumn form and could bounce back.
Of the BETDAQ market leaders this morning, On His Own and Across The Bay, ‘Bay’ would prefer soft-heavy ground. On His Own has fallen in the last two Nationals but his tumbles were late in the race and he has jumped 45 of the fences successfully. The Mullins stable also tries out young Vesper Bell.
Mr Moonshine jumped 23 fences in April and Roberto Goldback got almost all the way round (29 fences) until unseating when well behind at the last.
Roberto Goldback was bought as a National horse. So was Wyck Hill, who has been behind Roberto twice this year but also likes today’s surface. So, too, Walk On, second in the Topham to the subsequent Hennessy winner but is high in the weights off 11st 8lb.
Baby Run won the Foxhunters over these big obstacles and was third in the Sandown Gold Cup (3m 5f+) in 2011. He hasn’t been seen since but Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this in two of the last three years with old-timer Hello Bud, at age 12 and 14.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Martin Pipe’s Swing Bill (18.5) can handle the fences and the ground but I’m forced to spend an extra pound on Bostons Angel (22.0) as the Scudamore pick of the stable runners. My third to complete the 1-2-3 is On His Own. Ladbrokes took a hit from 10-1 to 7-1 this morning but he remained 11.5 on BETDAQ, at the time of writing.
2.25 Sandown No outright favourite has won this in the decade, and there’s been only one winner saddled with more than 11st 5lb, though in an open race today, River Maigue looks strong on last season’s form and the yard is tempted to keep him to hurdles for this one, though the intention is to go chasing soon.
It will be another case of ‘who else knew?’ if Specialagent Alfie scores, as Ladbrokes have brought him in to 8-1 this morning after sustained support, though I could return 50% better on BETDAQ at 13.0.
Wherever ‘Alfie’ is, Milord should be. They were second and third at Ascot recently, well primed for this. Though that race is suspect because of the slow time, I recall Milord (offers of 11.0) staying on up the hill at the Cheltenham Festival, fourth in the Fred Winter, and Sandown should suit.
Calculated Risk has won on today’s course and was primed at Cheltenham recently for a yard which does well with two-mile hurdlers.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Specialagent Alfie is only 1-14 and a bit of a bridesmaid with all those seconds, and I expect the four-year-old Milord to improve past him. Calculated Risk should be in the mix with River Maigue the saver. The 104% orange on BETDAQ allows me to spread my stakes.
3.00 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase) Are we going to lay Sprinter Sacre for the Champion Chase now, or will Nicky Henderson get him right for the Christmas fare?
His withdrawal from this is a mixed blessing for Sandown: no great champion left but a much better betting field for a race usually farmed by Paul Nicholls (Kauto Star, Master Minded among six in a row).
Sprinter Sacre’s stable is left with Captain Conan, who won the Henry V111 Novices’ Chase on this card last year when Sprinter Sacre took this one.
Captain Conan had won first time out, beating Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham in the November, with the form boosted recently when Sire De Grugy beat four of this field, the ‘moral’ as runner-up to Kid Cassidy, giving 10lb.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: As the known stamina horse of the two (bear in mind the Sandown hill), I shall take Captain Conan (at 3.4) to outgun Sire De Grugy in a 100% BETDAQ orange (SP Total last season 110%).
The ever-present Somersby is a once-a-year horse these days and is giving three years away to Captain Conan.
With 75 points profit from the last two days, I’m putting the loot on the line, laying Sire De Grugy and banking on Henderson and Captain Conan as an able deputy for Sprinter Sacre.
3.15 Aintree (Grand Sefton Chase) Though this is a shorter test than the Bechers over the big fences, it also requires a tough old hand at the game (only one winner in eight seasons was below the age of eight).
Stormin Exit has run well in this race before. Your Busy will like the ground. Though Venetia ‘Mon Mome’ William has Shangani shorter and that one is seemingly the choice of Aidan Coleman, Plein Pouvoir could be a surprise packet.
A giant of a horse,and that sort either get unbalanced by these fences or they ‘do a Party Politics’ and lope round as if they are hurdles. He’s 14.0 on BETDAQ as I write, only 9-1 with some bookies and 10-1 with the market leaders, Ladbrokes.
Ladbrokes also expect better than the other layers of Poole Master (10-1) and Your Busy (12-1), when I could get 16.5 and 24.0 respectively on BETDAQ. Nigel Twiston-Davies, renowned for his Aintree stayers, thinks Frontier Spirit (20.0) could be one.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The giant Plein Pouvoir ‘jumped his rivals silly’ at Wincanton last month (quote unquote his jockey that day in the Racing Post form) and is with the right stable. It was similar ground that day and it will be interesting to see him over the big fences, as it will Frontier Spirit.
3.35 Sandown (London National) Buddy Bolero was my original choice for the Hennessy (with the 20-1 winner in the bag, I’m grateful Buddy missed the race)!
He is 4lb better off for a head with subsequent Scottish National winner, Godsmejudge, on Cheltenham four-mile form at the Festival.
Godsmejudge was behind Bradley in November but that was his first run back and Bradley’s third. Hunter’s Lodge, Court By Surprise and There’s No Panic make this an interesting and open contest.
But the one I would fear most at big odds (offers of 14.0 on BETDAQ) is Franklin Roosevelt who finished well here up the hill on ground he didn’t like a month ago.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Franklin Roosevelt is up in grade but is a Beneficial out of a Strong Gale mare and the step up in trip is interesting. He has a featherweight and is my outsider of the day against stablemate, Buddy Bolero. Though, if I’m losing at this stage, it will be Buddy can you spare a dime?
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet staked to win 30 points)
BET 2.8pts win ON HIS OWN, 1.7pts win SWING BILL, 1.4pts win BOSTON’S ANGEL (2.05 Aintree)
BET 3.3pts win CALCULATED RISK, 3pts win MILORD and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) RIVER MAIGUE (2.25 Sandown)
LAY 10pts SIRE DE GRUGY and BET 12.5pts win (nap) CAPTAIN CONAN (3.00 Sandown)
BET 2.3pts win and place PLEIN POUVOIR, and 1.5pts win and place FRONTIER SPIRIT (3.15 Aintree)
BET 5pts win BUDDY BOLERO and 2.3pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT (3.35 Sandown)
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