DAQMAN VALUE WINNER IS A BETDAQ PRODUCTION: BETDAQ value was in the spotlight as Daqman landed two more winners yesterday, with big morning value in both cases, one of them worth 50% better on BETDAQ.
WON 9-4 PRODUCTION (from 4.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 4-1 CLON COULIS (from 7.0 on BETDAQ)
VERDICT ON THE KING GEORGE AS HE LEADS 48-17: Daqman went horse by horse through the King George form in Thursday’s column. Now here’s his verdict on the race and his bets for the other features. He starts his Saturday leading Pricewise of the Racing Post 48-17 (Daqman +61, Pricewise -78 to single-unit level stakes). Today’s headlines:
SOME MYSTERIOUS INTERVENTION?
GROWL FLYING IN HOT PURSUIT
14.0 THE SOLE RIVAL TO RIPP ORF
YORK RAIN GIFTS IT TO ELARQAM
FOLLOW STOUTE’S CRYSTAL BALL
I HEAR A WHISPER FOR WALKMAN
SOME MYSTERIOUS INTERVENTION?
1.50 Ascot (Princess Margaret Stakes) Five winners out of the last seven have come out of the one stall!
If you retaliate with: ‘ah yes, but the favourite has won five years out of six and just happened to be in stall 1 on four occasions..’
I will reply that the favourite, Royal Intervention (3.0 on BETDAQ), is today in that very stall one! Lightning strikes for the fifth time?
2.25 Ascot Escalator, up in weight and grade, may not find his ride to the top so easy now.
If you fancy Ripp Orf later on, you will want to be with Corrosive here, even though he was behind George Of Hearts in the Britannia.
Further behind but badly hampered was Crack On Crack On, who looks win-and-place value at 8.2 on BETDAQ.
GROWL FLYING IN HOT PURSUIT
2.40 York (Dash) Things may have dropped right for a repeat by Flying Pursuit (11.5 BETDAQ). Ground conditions have eased; he’s drawn low again (in the one stall last year; 6 this) and he’s been dropped 9lb to within little more than a length of his 2017 mark.
Down 12lb on his 2016 winning mark, and 10lb lower than his fourth in last season’s Stewards Cup, Growl (8.6 offers) could bounce back after only two starts this year. Unreliable but ‘on his A-game’ at home right now, says trainer Richard Fahey.
The worries for fans of Harome is that he’s up a stone for lower class wins over the minimum trip; this is a furlong further.
Tommy Taylor on the other hand has won at a higher level Listed), has bags of stamina for this (has won at 7f), and likes some cut in the ground.
York form 141 but a worry that cheekpieces didn’t bring him back to life on the last day.
14.0 THE SOLE RIVAL TO RIPP ORF
3.00 Ascot (International Stakes) Seven of the last eight winners have come out of double-figure stalls, with middle gates 14 and 15 (total of three) and high 22 to 29 (also three) sending out the winners in the seven high-draw years.
Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey, with three each, have split most of the takings in the decade, with winners at 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, 33-1 (twice), 40-1 and 50-1. No three-year-olds; no older horses (4yo 7, 5yo 3).
If anything bucks the trend, it could be Cardsharp, who is 5lb well in. In front soon enough in the Bunbury Cup, his previous tries at 7f having been in Group company. Makzeem finished well from right out the back.
But the Bunbury Cup form seems to have been behind the Victoria Cup on today’s course, when Ripp Orf came to the fore (Sabador fourth).
Ripp Orf would have won twice since, both over a mile, one of them off today’s rating but for being denied a clear run at the Newmarket July Meeting.
Sabador, who goes well fresh, has had a long break since May, and could be the dark horse here. He and Ripp Orf were in adjacent stalls in the Victoria Cup and, by coincidence, are side by side again here, in 16 and 17.
Another three-year-old, Il Primo Sole, who was sent over for the French Guineas, ran a cracker in the Britannia here at Ascot, fifth after being bumped.
The BETDAQ offers for my short list this morning were Ripp Orf 11.0, Makzeem 12.5, Il Primo Sole 14.0, Cardsharp 16.0, Sabador 20.0. I think Ripp Orf and Il Primo Sole have a touch of class. Sabador is wildly overpriced.
YORK RAIN GIFTS IT TO ELARQAM
3.15 York This is a mini-Eclipse, with dual Guineas also-ran Elarqam gifted the rain he needs, facing a Sir Michael Stoute late developer, Smart Call, third here at York in the Middleton Stakes, though the ground was firm that day.
Forest Ranger won the Earl Of Sefton and a Group 2 at Chester but has been beaten all starts on soft ground.
Thundering Blue is a smart handicapper who likes the course but is rated well behind the front three and, at five, is unlikely to improve.
FOLLOW STOUTE’S CRYSTAL BALL
3.40 Ascot (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, ABC form guide in Thursday column) Most winners of this in the decade gleam like golden oldies – Harbinger, Nathaniel, Danedream, Postponed, Highland Reel, Enable – but today’s race looks second class, unless something takes a big step up.
Arise Sir Michael Stoute, who has improved his pair, Crystal Ocean and Poets Word, a total of 72lb since first they were rated.
Stoute deserves to be ranked with the all-time great trainers. You could argue that Vincent O’Brien was king because of a stroke of breeding genius (pardon my French!) in following the Northern Dancer line; that Henry Cecil had the finest set of lads since Murless and Nightingall; that Aidan O’Brien could manipulate sacksful of cash for a team which, once they got Galileo, they got lucky for a lifetime.
Stoute watched Nikinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard from the wings, then stepped on the stage himself against the mighty combos of Hern-Mercer, Walwyn-Eddery, O’Brien-Piggott, Hern-Carson, Harwood-Starkey, Cecil-Cauthen.
Aidan O’Brien had Kinane, Moore and Murtagh but Stoute used five different riders for five King George winners.
Since Shergar in 1981, Swinburn, Fallon, Roberts, Moore and Peslier all rate Sir Michael, the man alone against the odds, as the reason they won.
Never in this century has a five-year-old scored. Can Stoute, with yet another jockey star, James Doyle, break the mould again, with Poets World?
Poets World (firm) and Cracksman (soft) have beaten each other, depending on the ground. Overnight showers didn’t seem to affect the ‘good to firm’ official going.
Yet Poet’s Word was being edged out in the BETDAQ market this morning by stablemate Crystal Ocean at 3.6 offers.
And, sticking to the stats, and following the relentless progress of one who’s won on both kinds of surfaces, I shall side with the Stoute supposed ‘second string,’ Crystal Ocean, and yet another ace rider for the great man, William Buick.
I HEAR A WHISPER FOR WALKMAN
5.45 Salisbury Beleaguerment ran on well at Newmarket behind rising star Quorto but my man in the long grass tells me that he will find Walkman better than the bare form and good value at his 8.6 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
6.15 Salisbury Great Midge (3.45 offers) is a giant of a horse with bags of scope for improvement and will find out any fitness flaw in Exceedingly Diva, who returns after almost a year off.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Ascot (win 20)
BET 10pts win ROYAL INTERVENTION
2.25 Ascot (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win and place CRACK ON CRACK ON
2.40 York (win 20)
BET 2.6pts win GROWL
BET 1.75pts win and place FLYING PURSUIT
3.00 Ascot (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win RIPP ORF
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.75pts win and place IL PRIMO SOLE
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.5pts win and place SABADOR
3.15 York (win 20)
BET 12.5pts win (nap) ELARQAM
3.40 Ascot (win 20)
BET 7.5pts win CRYSTAL OCEAN
5.45 Salisbury (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win and place WALKMAN
6.15 Salisbury (win 10)
BET 4pts GREAT MIDGE
FORTUNE COOKIES
BROROCCO (3.15 York)
MAYBRIDE (3.20 Newcastle)
POETS WORD (3.40 Ascot)
CRACKSMAN (3.40 Ascot)
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