BANKER SEQUENCE ENDS ON NINE: It all started well, with back-to-back 7-1 winners (Adelaide and Smaih), then yesterday went pear-shaped, as Daqman’s banker sequence ended in nine in a row. His naps have now finished in the first four 23 times consecutively (15 winners).
IT’S A TOP JUMPS SUNDAY: Daqman finds 18.5 and 12.0 BETDAQ outsiders on a strong jumps Sunday of Aintree and Wincanton, with a top-line staying Flat race in France, the Prix Royal Oak (but no sign of his arch-rival Pricewise, whom he leads 68-31 this season).
BREEDERS’ CUP NEXT WEEK: Look out next weekend for Daqman’s assessment of the 2014 Breeders Cup in Santa Anita and the final big weekend of the English Flat season at Newmarket.
RED-RUM ‘PETE’ LOOKS A SNIP AT AINTREE
12.55 Aintree This has been won by some very good horses, Wichita Lineman (2006) and Cue Card (2010) among them.
Six favourites have scored in the last eight years, in which time no horses giving away a penalty for past success have been able to beat those on 10st 12lb.
Both stats point to Champagne Present but only just, in that Tony McCoy’s mount has only a marginal lead over Vintage Vinnie in the early-mouse BETDAQ market, as I write.
I can’t see that. Vintage Vinnie (like The Last Euro) is bred for the minimum. He has led in his Point and his bumper but first-time hood suggests they are going to try to quiet him down and hunt him round to get the trip.
The shape of the race reads like Champagne Present stalking the Don McCain front-runners Mr Burgess and Sealous Scout.
But Champagne Presentt, bred in the NH-staying purple by Presenting out of a Good Thyne mare, can afford to be up there for a late attack on the strong pace. He’s already a 3m Point winner, and the 10lb he gets should be decisive.
2.40 Aintree (John Parrett Memorial) Of Paul Nicholls last 20 runners, 10 have started shorter than 7-2, seven of them favourite. All have been beaten.
That could be deemed slightly better than Richard Ford, whose five runners in the last fortnight have finished a total of 101 lengths off the winners.
The Northern Ireland raider, Back To Balloo, is also from a struggling yard and Surf And Turf has been a bridesmaid (form 232322) since hiked 10lb for winning over today’s course and distance in June. Maybe the return to Aintree will help.
A liking for the track also boosts the chances of the winner of this in 2012, Gus Macrae, but ‘Gus’ has never gone in first time back before in his six-year career.
The shape of this one? Dunowen Point (tried to make all over further at Sedgefield) to try to run them ragged but without a win for 20 months now.
And the choice of a bet depends on whether you think the rise and rise of Nikos Extra (three out of four, 21lb higher overall) is not over. Or whether Parsnip Pete, Red Rum Chase winner at the last Aintree Festival, can score after a break.
That’s exactly what he did a year ago and, despite the paper forecast for the Nicholls runner (Valco De Touzaine), he was 4.1 favourite on BETDAQ in a punter-friendly 109% orange this morning. Rightly so.
3.15 Aintree Remember those stats we found a couple of weeks back, that Jonjo O’Neill’s Pertemps winners never capture their qualifier? Doesn’t make me want to back Upswing.
He’s a J P McManus but Tony McCoy would probably prefer to be on Peckhamecho, twice a winner for him and likely to benefit from his recent second under Barry Geraghty.
Uncle Jimmy has already won a class 2 and was a close third at this meeting last year. He’s scored under 7lb-claimer Thomas Cheeseman, but would probably prefer some rain (even though the ground has been watered).
Dawn Commander bids to continue where he left off with a CD win in May but the grey is nearly a stone higher than for back-to-back wins over hurdles which gave him a hat-trick, started by a game bumper success.
He’s giving nearly a stone to last-day winners Rolling Maul and Deadly Sting but the one I fancy win and place at a price (18.5 on BETDAQ as I write) is Dreams Of Milan, a 22-lengths novice-hurdle winner before embarking on an unsuccessful chasing career.
3.50 Aintree Rossini’s Dancer has been primed with two hurdles runs to repeat last year’s win in this chase from a 1lb lower mark.
He’s got his ground again but seems to be in a much more open race, with seven of the nine runners within 3.4 of each other in a 108% BETDAQ orange this morning.
Dineur, who has also had two runs back over hurdles, had five out of eight over fences in 2013, one of them here at Aintree. King Of The Wolds goes well fresh but has never really stepped up from the novice stage.
Benefit Cut, Lamool and Supreme Asset all have to take that same leap from novice company. Benefit Cut gives weight all round, Lamool’s yard is struggling, with four consecutive losing favourites, and Supreme Asset is likely to be the biggest threat to Rossini’s Dancer.
ZARSHANA CAN SHINE AT 12.0 ON BETDAQ
2.40 Longchamp (Prix Royal Oak) A four-strong English and Irish raiding party, three of them trainers who have all won the race this century.
Dermot Weld took it with Vinnie Roe (2001), Hughie Morrison with the veteran Alcazar (2005) and Marco Botti last year, thanks to the very soft terrain which suited Tac De Boistron (Altano eighth).
‘Tac’ gets a tick in the going box again this time around and goes well fresh, as he showed when taking the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot in the Spring, his first run since this Royal Oak.
Horses aged three and four have won 15 times in the last 20 years, which brings in Hughie Morrison’s Vent De Force, the Melrose winner who was just pipped in another French contest of this nature, the Chaudenay.
High Jinx (James Fanshawe) and Pale Mimosa (Dermot Weld) must come into it on their first and third in the Prix Du Cadran (2m 4f) but this is not their ground.
Frankie Dettori’s mount, Frine, is another youngster to consider after his recent success at Longchamp but the third home that day, Zarshana, unexposed at today’s trip, is bred to be the surprise packet here under Thierry Jarnet, who stole the French season on Treve.
The Sea The Stars filly is half-sister to another Arc winner, Zarkava (2008), and to Zarkandar, winner of the Aintree Hurdle in 2013 and twice successful on heavy ground. We’re talking the highest class and stamina. And we’re talking 12.0 on BETDAQ. Come on Thierry!
‘FEARLESS’ COULD BE FAMOUS ONE DAY
2.55 Wincanton (Desert Orchid Silver Cup) Philip Hobbs has made a flying start to the season, with 14 chase winners, and a fine training feat to bring Wishfull Thinking a big Aintree prize yesterday at age 11.
Imperial Circus and Allthekingshorses represent him here, but the grey Buck’s Bond has their measure on course form last December and Buck’s Bond’s yard is out of form.
Pantxoa has won four chases and he’s from a stable in form but I doubt anything can give the weight to Famousandfearless, who’s bred to be a Grand National horse, by Presenting out of a Saddlers’ Hall mare, and could continue to climb the ranks while the ground remains fairly solid.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets staked to win 20 points, including the place on Dreams Of Milan, but excluding the Bull’s-Eye Bet on Zarshana)
BET 6.6pts win CHAMPAGNE PRESENT (12.55 Aintree)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) PARSNIP PETE (2.40 Aintree)
BET 11pts win FAMOUSANDFEARLESS and 3pts win PANTXOA (2.55 Wincanton).
BET 1.1pts win and 7pts place DREAMS OF MILAN (3.15 Aintree)
BET 3pts win on each ROSSINI’S DANCER and SUPREME ASSET (3.50 Aintree)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 4.5pts win and place ZARSHANA and 7pts win (to win 20) TAC DE BOISTRON (2.40 Longchamp)
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