Oakland Raiders (0-6, 3-3 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (3-3, 3-1-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -6.5 (43)
Significant Injuries
Oakland: DE Justin Tuck (questionable– knee), G Khalif Barnes (questionable– quadricep), RB Marcel Reece (questionable– quadricep), CB Carlos Rogers (questionable– knee), WR Vincent Brown (out– hamstring), S Usama Young (out– knee), DE LaMarr Woodley (out– biceps)
Cleveland: CB Jim Leonhard (questionable– ankle), DE William Winn (questionable– quadricep), WR Rodney Smith (out– hamstring), DE Phil Taylor (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Cleveland is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 14 points
Cleveland is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 6-1 in Oakland’s last 7 games following a double-digit home loss
The OVER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games following a loss of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The Raiders have quietly improved in their two games under interim coach Toy Sparano, nearly beating San Diego in Week 6 and hanging tough with Arizona throughout most of last week’s game. Now they’re a whopping 6.5-point ‘dog against Cleveland team that just lost to the lowly Jaguars…
2. The Raiders have re-committed to the running game under Sparano, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to those who are familiar with his history, and the Browns rank last in the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering over 155 yards per game on the ground.
3. The Browns have a plodding offense that managed just 6 points against a Jacksonville defense that was allowing nearly 30 per game, so the 6.5-point number here looms large. The loss of center Alex Mack has really affected the once-formidable Cleveland rushing attack.
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns have been good at home this season, beating New Orleans and Pittsburgh and losing to Baltimore by just 2, and now they get the NFL’s last remaining winless team, the Oakland Raiders. Considering that Cleveland is better on both sides of the ball and 6-1 ATS the last 7 times these teams have met, a Browns bet here is the only sensible play.
2. Cleveland ranks 10th in total offense and 6th in rush yards per game, so they shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball against an Oakland defense that is surrendering over 26 points per game and ranks 29th against the run. It’s going to be a busy day for the scoreboard operators…
3. The Raiders have a pathetic offense that ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in total yards per game and 31st in points scored (15.3 ppg). They’re led by a rookie quarterback and have scored more than 14 points just once in 6 games. Can you trust them with your money? Of course not.
Prediction
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