Indianapolis Colts (5-2, 6-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3, 3-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3.5 (49)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: RB Trent Richardson (questionable– hamstring), TE John Doyle (questionable– knee), WR Reggie Wayne (out– elbow)
Pittsburgh: OT Marcus Gilbert (doubtful– concussion), DT Steve McLendon (out– shoulder), CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm), S Shamarko Thomas (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 14 points
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games following a Monday night game
The OVER is 4-0 in Indianapolis’ last 4 road games
The OVER is 7-2 in Indianapolis’ last 9 games overall
The OVER is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 home games
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts are quite possibly the best team in the NFL, as they’ve won 5 straight games– covering each time– and are the only team in the league to rank in the top-4 in both points scored and points allowed.
2. The Indianapolis offense has been nearly unstoppable this season, ranking 1st in both total yards and pass yards per game and 2nd in points scored. It’s all been possible because of the play of Andrew Luck, who may be the NFL’s best quarterback at the moment. On Sunday Luck will face a Pittsburgh defense that has surrendered 26 points or more 4 times in their 7 games.
3. The Steelers have been the beneficiaries of a soft schedule that has featured just one team– Baltimore– that currently has a winning record. In their lone test against a winning team they were beaten 26-6, so it’s quite possible that they just aren’t very good. We’ll find out this week against the streaking Colts, who are coming off a 27-0 hammering of Cincinnati.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers are a veteran team led by an elite quarterback. You don’t get the opportunity to back them as a home ‘dog very often, and with good reason: they’re averaging 28 points per game at home this season and are 5-1 against the number in their last 6 home games against teams with winning records.
2. As bettors we’re always looking for buy low/sell high opportunities, and this week is an excellent “sell high” spot for the Colts after their 27-point win over Cincinnati last week. They’re just not quite as good as people seem to think they are right now… in Week 6, for instance, they beat a mediocre Houston team by just 5 points. I wouldn’t feel goo about backing them as a road favorite against a team like Pittsburgh.
3. The Steelers have a good, balanced offense that ranks in the top-10 in both pass yards and rush yards per game. This week they’ll face an overrated Indianapolis defense that has surrendered 20 points or more against every competent offense they’ve faced (plus Houston). A big day from Roethlisberger and Co. is expected.
Prediction
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