DAQMAN BANKER DOUBLE MAKES IT 22 FROM 26: Daqman put maximum stakes on two horses in one day for the first time in three years yesterday. And both won with ease, one of them trading around even money. That makes it 22 winners from 26 banker bets in 2013.
FUTURE CHAMPIONS WORTH 20 LENGTHS OVER THEIR FIELDS: Kings Palace (nap, WON 10-11) slaughtered his field 14 lengths, returning 38 points to a 20-point stake for a 91% profit on outlay. The New One (WON 2-5) had bigger fish to catch in Zarkandar but came clear by six lengths up the Cheltenham hill. Both look future Festival champions.
151 POINTS PROFIT TO LEVEL STAKES: Here are the 22 winning bankers, which show a profit of 151 points to 20-point level stakes:
WON 5-4 February: CHATTERBOX
WON 1-7 March: SIMONSIG
WON 1-4 March: SPRINTER SACRE
WON 4-11 March: ANNIE POWER
WON 8-11 April: TORONADO
WON 4-6 May: LIBER NAUTICUS
WON 3-10 June: ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
WON 5-6 July: CUT THE CARDS
WON 3-10 July: MAPUTO
WON 1-2 July: TELESCOPE
WON 2-5 July: ROSIE PROBERT
WON 5-6 August MONTIRIDGE
WON 13-8 August (dd ht) INTEGRAL
WON 3-10 September NOVELLIST
WON 8-11 September JOYEUSE
WON 4-6 September ORFEVRE
WON 8-11 November UXIZANDRE
WON 1-5 November DOCTOR HARPER
WON 1-2 November MILAN BOUND
WON 8-11 November WONDERFUL CHARM
WON 10-11 December KINGS PALACE
WON 2-5 December THE NEW ONE
It’s never easy when it looks easy. I sweat over the short-shots as much as I do the long-shots. Which odds-on favourites will score? Your criterion has to be the same as for any bet: is it value?
Well, ask any man in the City if he fancies an instant 40% (the profit in just over four minutes from The New One yesterday) or, better still, 91%, a massive reward from Kings Palace, a Christmas-box 10-11. What a price for a 14-lengths winner on a cruise round Cheltenham!
There are more seeming ‘good things’ today – Briar Hill, Royal Caviar – but I’ve learned three principles as I’ve managed my 85% strike rate: don’t be in any hurry; space your bankers out among the very best horses in the very best races, where you can be as near certain as possible that the horse will run to form. And avoid extremes of going.
So why am I not playing up the winnings at Navan today? One reason is that Briar Hill and Royal Caviar both came to fame on the soft and it’s goodish ground there this afternoon, as I write. ‘Good’ is an extreme of going in an island of bogs!
12.35 Navan A fascinating card with Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh back in opposition and Willie Mullins’ firm still on champagne high after breaking more records.
Lightweights which are strong in the market. That’s what you want in this one, according to the stats: no winner above 11st 1lb, none bigger than 8-1 SP in the last six seasons.
McCoy’s mount, College Boy, is up in grade after his soft-ground success at Fairyhouse. Hop In is 4lb better with Director’s Forum on their close one-two at Punchestown but their changing places is not certain, since Hop In is the headstrong one.
Mireya will need a fast-run race, as a 1m 6f winner on heavy on the Flat who did well enough a grade higher than today, third in her first hurdles handicap at Gowran.
Claimed off here, so on a featherweight, she beat a Grade-3 winner in her maiden and 8.2 looked good value on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
1.05 Navan And still they come in quality and quantity from Willie Mullins record-breaking stable. After the latest, Mozoltov, Mullins runs, potentially, one of the greatest, Briar Hill, the Champion Bumper winner who jumped hurdles flawlessly first time.
1.20 Carlisle Alpha Victor, who has won at Christmas or New Year for the last two seasons, tried to make all – and nearly did – on his return in November, whereas his win at Haydock (3m heavy) last December was when held up.
Kaki De La Pree is dining out on his length second to Kings Palace – doesn’t that look good now! – at Fontwell in October, broke his maiden the same month and is a novice on the upgrade.
Lie Forrit has been there, done that and got the tea-shirt, hurdles and chases, but has scored only once in two years after a leg injury and has not been this high in the handicap since 2010.
I took 3.5 Kaki De La Pree this morning, as opposed to the 4.4 Lie Forrit – they were the only ones backed – but thought that Alpha Victor was huge at 18.0 (I priced him in at just sub-11.0), small win and double stakes for the place.
1.40 Navan (Tara Hurdle) Five-year-olds have won five in a row, and only one winner in the decade has been older than seven, so that almost half this field is probably past it!
‘Probably’ is the word and it’s the probabilities we’re after. They usually total, as percentages, less than 110% on BETDAQ when they settle down, whereas they will reach a bookies’ Total SP of between 118% (for this race a year ago) and 147% in Ireland.
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there) the stats for the Tara Hurdle are suspect because it has been changed from a conditions race to a handicap – doubling the field size from the usual average – something I’ve been campaigning for as several English races this autumn-winter have been weak, poor-turn-out betting races.
So, is it back to square one for this? Answer: not unless one of the older horses is seriously well handicapped. And the open, punter-friendly BETDAQ market of offers still remains with margins you will rarely get, even if you have accounts with, and are prepared to monitor, all 23 firms in Oddschecker this morning.
Ruby Walsh’s ride, the grey Call Me Bubbles, has been raised 5lb in the ratings, as the ’moral’, giving a stone but beaten little more than a length at Listowel though, in fact, he will carry 5lb less because of the strength of this handicap.
Jennie’s Jewel, a Flemensfirth mare, has beaten half a dozen of today’s field in her last two races but is up a total of only 4lb and is claimed off. ‘Wrong’ at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.20 Navan (Future Champions NH Flat Race) This threw up the Champion Bumper winner, Dunguib, in 2008, with Willie Mullins ‘fine , big chasing type’ Royal Caviar red-hot today. The quote suggests we shall hear a lot of him for several years to come.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win 20)
BET 2.7pts win MIREYA (12.35 Navan)
BET 8pts win (nap) KAKI DE LA PREE and 1.1pts win plus 2.2pts place (Outsider Of The Day) ALPHA VICTOR (1.20 Carlisle)
BET 5pts win CALL ME BUBBLES and 2.2pts win JENNIE’S JEWEL (1.40 Navan)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca VICE ET VERTU (12.15 Carlisle), KAKI DE LA PREE (1.20 Navan), BRIAR HILL (1.05 Navan) and ROYAL CAVIAR (3.20 Navan)
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